AMBASSADOR'S JUNE 17 VISIT TO SWABI IDP SITE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001340 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PREF PHUM EAID PGOV PTER PK SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S JUNE 17 VISIT TO SWABI IDP SITE ¶1. (U) Summary: The Ambassador, on June 17, visited Swabi school where community volunteers support displaced families from Swat and Buner. The GOP continues registration verification of families displaced by the conflict in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and estimates that the final tally of individuals currently displaced will reach two million. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees will present in Washington a revised UNHCR internal planning document and funding needs estimate based on an increase in anticipated IDPs from 1.5 million (as cited in the UN's May 2009 Pakistan Humanitarian Response Plan) to 2.5 million comprised of the aforementioned two million, an estimated 300,000 persons displaced in Punjab and Sindh, and an additional 200,000 persons expected to flee any security operations in Waziristan. End Summary AMBASSADOR'S VISIT TO DISPLACED AT A SWABI SCHOOL -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) On June 17, the Ambassador visited Anbar Elementary College where approximately 2,500 displaced individuals from Swat and Buner districts currently reside. The school-based camp in Swabi District is managed by a local foundation established by community members and local government officials. Displaced persons are receiving support primarily from the foundation, as well as from the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF),an international NGO and local community members. (The USG has provided a total of approximately $6.5 million to UNICEF for water, sanitation and nutrition assistance for the displaced.) The volunteer support provided at the Anbar school is a model for community assistance to displaced families. During the visit, the Ambassador announced a USG gift of notebooks, colored pencils, pencils and sharpeners for displaced children at the school, and mechanical flashlights for the families. REVISED UNHCR PLANNING -------------- ¶3. (U) During his visit to Washington, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees will present a revised internal planning document for Pakistan. While this is not/not a revised appeal, it does present revised IDP planning figures and outlines additional funding needs of $36 million (required for the rest of the calendar year) above that in UNHCR's previous submission to the UN's revised 2009 Pakistan Humanitarian Response Plan (PHRP). The document outlines that: - Based on ongoing registration verification, it is estimated that 2 million persons are displaced in FATA and NWFP; - Another 300,000 have been registered in areas outside of NWFP, mainly in Sindh and Punjab provinces; - With the expected military operations in Waziristan, some 200,000 persons are expected to be displaced. Instead of the 1.5 million IDP planning figure in the PHRP, UNHCR is now using a figure of 2.5 million. NADRA VERIFICATIONS -------------- ¶4. (U) Pakistan's National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA),as of June 16, had reviewed the cases of 521,711 out of 558,125 registered families. Of those 521,711, there are 268,672 families that have been verified as eligible IDPs. Thus, the number of verified, registered displaced is now approximately 1.9 million individuals, and it is assumed that this number will rise to approximately 2 million when pending cases are reviewed. (The 2 million number is the source of the UNHCR estimates in para 3.) GOP CASH DISBURSEMENTS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On June 16, GOP Special Support Group head Lt. General (ret) Nadeem told UN agencies that 15,887 families ISLAMABAD 00001340 002 OF 003 have received debit cards for 25,000 rupees (approximately $310). From these cards, approximately 85 million rupees (approximately $1.05 million) have been withdrawn from banks. The recipients of the cards are largely from Jalozai camp. POTENTIAL UNHCR ROLE IN RETURN -------------- ¶6. (U) As a result of UN discussions held on June 16 with Lt. General (ret) Nadeem, it appears that the UNHCR will share the UN co-lead with UNDP on coordinating with the government on the return home of the displaced. Government planning for the return of the IDPs is nascent, however. CONDITIONS FOR RETURN -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In a donor meeting on June 17, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) indicated its support for IDP returns but emphasized that conditions must permit those returns to be durable. The current security situation in Buner, Swat, and Lower Dir does not currently allow for sustainable returns. In discussions on June 16 with OCHA, Lt. General (ret.) Nadeem said that returns will not be forced. OCHA told Nadeem that there must be more security and a pre-assessment conducted by the UN prior to the UN's support of a returns operation. When OCHA questioned Nadeem regarding the June 20 date on which he previously said that returns would begin, Nadeem indicated that June 20 will just be the start of getting the bureaucracy in place to support the initiation of a returns operation. Lt. General Nadeem listed six pre-conditions for returns including clearing the area of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and unexploded ordnance (UXO),clearing of roads and debris, fully operational civil administration and law enforcement, active markets, restoration of services and basic infrastructure, and mandated Army presence until there is a complete return of stability. HUMANITARIAN CONDITIONS -------------- ¶8. (U) The U.K. Department for International Development (DFiD) has provided $10.5 million to six UN clusters for projects listed in the UN Pakistan Humanitarian Response Plan. DFiD has prioritized early recovery, food, health, protection, shelter, and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). The UN has decided to allocate $1.25 million to early recovery, $1.5 million to food, $3.25 million to health, $1 million to protection, $1.5 million to shelter, and $2 million to WASH. June 15 and 16 cluster meetings were dominated by discussion of how to distribute the DFiD funding among cluster members, as the decisions must be submitted to OCHA on June 17. FOOD AND NUTRITION -------------- ¶9. (U) On June 15, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) distributed food rations to 1,000 households in Mingora, Swat District. ICRC plans to complete approximately 5,000 food ration distributions by the end of the week in Mingora and surrounding villages. In addition, ICRC noted unconfirmed reports of high malnutrition rates in villages outside of Mingora. ¶10. (U) The UN Food Security cluster has requested support from the UN WASH cluster to rehabilitate contaminated wells supplying water to grain mills in Peshawar. Currently, the UN World Food Program (WFP) is using mills in Lahore and Rawalpindi to produce wheat flour but noted difficulty in keeping up with humanitarian requirements without additional milling capacity. Regular WFP food distributions are ongoing. LOGISTICS AND RELIEF COMMODITIES -------------- ¶11. (U) On June 16, the UN Logistics cluster coordinator gave an update on the status of the logistics base at Pir ISLAMABAD 00001340 003 OF 003 Pai, near Nowshera town. The coordinator noted that the 34-acre base includes space for sixteen 10 X 40 meter storage halls (Wiik halls),as well as space currently used to store supplies on pallets under tarpaulins. The Wiik halls arrived in Karachi on June 15, and the cluster expects that the halls will clear customs and arrive in Pir Pai in approximately 4 to 5 days. Approximately 250 people are working daily at the base which can handle between 2,000 and 2,500 MT throughput of food and relief commodities each day. ¶12. (U) USAID's Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance is providing $1.5 million to WFP, the lead organization for the logistics cluster, for logistics augmentation to support activities such as the establishment of the logistics base at Pir Pai and logistics contingency planning to respond to other potential displacement, including from North and South Waziristan Agencies. POLITICAL UPDATE -------------- ¶13. (U) As Pakistani political leaders shifted their focus south of Malakand Division toward the widely anticipated military offensive in the Waziristans, Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Qamar Zaman Kaira said that most of Swat Valley had been cleared and IDPs could soon return to their homes. The Army's top spokesman claimed that the government had lifted the curfew in the central Swat towns of Kalam and Bahrain, completely secured Peochar Valley, and fully restored civil administration and police services in Shangla District. Pakistan People's Party (PPP) representatives from Malakand Division again announced their demand that the federal government establish a central committee, led by a PPP National Assembly member (Afsarul Mulk),to oversee and coordinate all relief activities for IDPs. ¶14. (SBU) Comment: Pakistani officials routinely make statements that areas have been cleared and that families should return home. In the end, families are generally making their own decisions. We have no evidence of Pakistani government intention to forcibly return IDPs. End comment. PATTERSON