JUNE 8 MILITARY/SECURITY AND DISPLACED PERSONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001253

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2019
TAGS: PREF PREL PHUM EAID PTER PGOV PINR PK
SUBJECT: JUNE 8 MILITARY/SECURITY AND DISPLACED PERSONS
REPORT

REF: ISLAMABAD 1246

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (U) SUMMARY: During the evening of June 6 a suicide
bomber and accomplices attacked a police post in Islamabad.
The blast killed three police and injured several others.
Police claimed taking three accomplices of the bomber into
custody. Also that evening, two detained top aides to
militant leader Sufi Mohammad were killed when the military
convoy in which they were riding was attacked by militants in
a remote area of Malakand. A taliban spokesman rebutted the
official story and blamed the government for their deaths.
Local villagers in Upper Dir took matters into their own
hands in response to the bombing of a mosque on June 5. Over
the weekend, hundreds of locals banded together in a lashkar
and attacked five villages known to harbor taliban militants.
Consulate Peshawar reports on actions by militants,
including torching of schools and assassinations.


2. (U) As of June 5, the National Database and Registration
Authority (NADRA) had verified as legitimate approximately
1.73 million registered internally displaced persons based on
a family size of seven. The numbers are not yet final.
NADRA has disallowed 164,738 households, or approximately
1.15 million people. The Office of the UN High Commissioner
for Refugees notes, however, the importance first of rapid
initial registration to ensure immediate humanitarian relief,
followed by re-verification to eliminate duplication and
wasted resources. Save the Children estimates that twelve
percent of displaced people have not registered. By June 8
there will be 33 operational humanitarian hubs. The
humanitarian assistance community is suggesting the need for
an independent verification of security before IDP return.
Hosting families continue to make an enormous sacrifice and
face severe overcrowding and sanitation problems in hosting
the displaced. END SUMMARY

MILITARY/SECURITY UPDATE
--------------


3. (U) Major events over the weekend were the suicide bomber
attack against a police post in Islamabad, the deaths of two
top aides to militant leader Sufi Mohammad while in military
custody in what has been described as a taliban ambush on a
government forces' convoy, and the attacks by a local militia
on militants in Upper Dir in response to the bombing of a
mosque on June 5 that killed and injured dozens. The June 6
evening bombing in the capital killed three police and
injured several others. The bomber was described as a male
in his early twenties of whom very little was left after the
blast. Police said that one accomplice had been wounded and
apprehended on the spot; two others were reported to have
been arrested later. Interior Minister Rehman Malik said the
attack was in response to the Swat operation. He added that
the government had intelligence that 50 suicide bombers had
been ordered into Islamabad by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
leader Baitullah Mehsud. Malik claimed that eight have
already been arrested.


4. (U) Also on Saturday evening, two detained top aides to
militant leader Sufi Mohamamad were killed when the military
convoy in which they were riding was attacked by taliban
militants. The deputy chief of the banned Tehrik
Nifaz-i-Shariat Muhammadi (TNSM) organization, Maulana
Mohammad Alam, and the organization's spokesman, Amir Izzat,
were being transported to Peshawar when, according to
military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas, an IED
explosion ripped through their vehicle in a remote area of
Malakand. A soldier was also reported killed in the ensuing
gun battle. The bodies of the deceased militants were turned
over to a tribal delegation from Amandara, where TNSM is
headquartered. MG Abbas told the press that IED incidents
are regular occurences in the area but that the possibility
that the two militants were "specifically targetted" could
not be ruled out. Abbas acknowledged that another TNSM
leader, Maulana Wahab, is in custody. Contesting the

ISLAMABAD 00001253 002 OF 004


official story, Muslim Khan, the spokesman for
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Swat, blamed the
government for killing the two TNSM leaders.


5. (U) The June 5 bombing of a mosque in Upper Dir that
killed over three dozen people and injured many others
provoked a sudden and furious reaction against the taliban by
local villagers. Hundreds of them banded together in a
militia (a "lashkar") and attacked five villages in the Dhok
Darra area that were known as militant strongholds. June 8
press reports claimed that the militia had taken over three
villages and were working on pushing the militants out of the
other two. Thirteen taliban were said to have been killed.
Taliban safehouses were torched by the lashkar. News
broadcasts on June 8 showed dozens of locals riding in
convoys and brandishing rifles, RPGs and other weapons. One
newspaper reported that this was the latest evidence of
growing anti-taliban sentiment in Pakistan, a shift that
comes in the wake of suicide attacks by militants in response
to the military operation against them.


6. (U) Consulate Peshawar reports that even as Federal
Minister for States and Frontier Regions Najmuddin Khan was
saying that militants are "on the run," Consulate contacts
pointed to signs that militants are regrouping. In Lower
Dir, militants burned seven government schools on June 7, and
they burned another in Buner on June 8. Militants in the
Kanju area of central Swat kidnapped two brothers and a
nephew of Dr. Shamsher Ali, an ANP-affiliated member of the
NWFP Assembly; the nephew and a police official were killed.
As fighting intensified in Shangla District, residents
complained of continuous curfews and the closing of banks and
government offices for over a month. Shangla District
Coordination Officer Altaf Hussain ordered government
servants to report to duty, but the curfew prevented the
officials from going to work.


7. (U) In Buner, a Consulate contact in the local government
confirmed that most government departments in Buner had at
least a skeleton staff present, and that health, education
and revenue departments were in full operation. Pakistan's
Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) had workers in
place and had partly restored power to the areas around the
district headquarters of Daggar. Telephone connections were
still down but repair work was underway. In the more
recently cleared Pir Baba area of northern Buner, however, no
government personnel were yet present.


8. (U) Political parties continued to take divergent
positions on military operations in Malakand. Ulema
(religious scholars) met in Islamabad, hosted by Jamiat
Ahl-i-Sunnat Pakistan, to issue a statement of support for
current military operations. Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, leader
of the opposition in the National Assembly and PML-N party
member, condemned suicide attacks but did not take a clear
position in support of the operation in Malakand. In
Islamabad, Liaquat Ali, Secretary General of the
Jamaat-i-Islami (JI),alleged that the Zardari government
failed to provide relief to IDPs, while in Karachi JI
organized a rally of schoolchildren chanting "Go, America,
go" to protest Pakistan's military operation in Malakand.

Humanitarian Coordination
--------------


9. (U) During a June 6 meeting in Peshawar between the USAID
Disaster Assistance Management Team (DART) staff, UN cluster
leads, and UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) representatives, UN staff reported that UN
interventions and coordination have primarily focused on
official camps. UN representatives reported that contingency
planning is ongoing for the upcoming monsoon season, as well
as for the possible IDP outflow from other geographic
displacements.


10. (U) As of June 5, the National Database and Registration
Authority (NADRA) had verified approximately 1.73 million

ISLAMABAD 00001253 003.2 OF 004


registered internally displaced persons based on a family
size of seven. OCHA indicated that the numbers are not yet
final due to a backlog of registration forms, and a
GOP-managed grievance process for disqualified households.


11. (U) As of June 6, NADRA had disallowed 164,738
households, or approximately 1.15 million people. OCHA
reported that 23,278 households had invalid computerized
national identity cards (CNICs); 22,993 households did not
previously possess CNICs; 101,617 households were registered
at multiple sites; 757 households had unclear national ID
cards; 1,281 households reported addresses outside of
conflict-affected areas; and 14,812 households were duplicate
registrations by multiple members of a household.


12. (U) In a discussion with Refcoord of the ongoing
verification of IDP numbers, Office of the UN High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Representative
Guebre-Christos highlighted the importance first of rapid
initial registration to ensure immediate humanitarian relief,
followed by re-verification to eliminate duplication and
wasted resources. Save the Children estimates, based on a
recent assessment, that despite duplicate registrations,
still some 12 percent of legitimate IDPs have not registered.

Requirements for IDP Return
--------------


13. (C) In a recent discussion with emboffs, international
organization and NGO representatives have stressed that
people do not trust the Pakistan military's assessment of the
security situation in the affected areas. The humanitarian
assistance community is suggesting the need for an
independent verification of security before IDP return.
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Head
Bessler has noted that this independent verification should
be made based on clear criteria and then be broadly
communicated to the IDPs. OCHA and others have noted that an
area deemed by the military to be "clear" still requires law
enforcement, electricity, water, health facilities, civil
administration and removal of unexploded ordnance to permit
resumption of civilian life. IDPs also fear that they will
be forced to forego the government-promised 25,000 rupees per
family if they return home. OCHA has emphasized that the
displaced need information that once registered they remain
eligible to receive this cash grant even if they return home.


14. (SBU) Civil administration officials have generally not
yet returned to the affected areas. The International Rescue
Committee and Sarhad Rural Support Program have stressed to
embassy officers and Washington visitors, however, that for
the majority of non-urban displaced, who previously had
neither civil administration nor municipal services, the
primary criteria for return are credible verification of
security and a faith in the government to continue to ensure
that security.

IDP Hosting Communities
--------------


15. (U) As UNHabitat has recently emphasized to emboffs, the
tremendous sacrifice the often very poor Pakistani host
families are making cannot be overestimated. There is
massive overcrowding in hosting communities. Sanitation is a
critical issue. While there was limited sanitation in these
host communities before, with the influx of displaced
families, a house and surrounding property now often holds
several times the number of people living there previously.

Food and Nutrition
--------------


16. (U) As of June 7, the UN World Food Program (WFP)
reported 28 currently operational humanitarian hubs. WFP is
planning to open five additional hubs in Mardan District on
June 8. Food distribution coverage in Mardan District,
currently at 73 percent of registered IDPs, will improve with

ISLAMABAD 00001253 004 OF 004


the additional hubs.


17. (U) As of June 7, WFP reported that food distribution
coverage of registered IDPs in the other four districts in
North West Frontier Province (NWFP) was 96 percent in
Charsadda District, 102 percent in Nowshera District, 106
percent in Peshawar District, and 107 percent in Swabi
District. According to WFP, coverage is greater than 100
percent in some districts due to people traveling to several
hubs to register and collect rations. WFP expects that the
verified IDP registration lists provided by NADRA will
largely rectify the problem.

Logistics and Relief Commodities
--------------


18. (SBU) USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives has
provided 20 generators and 20 transformers to local officials
for use in IDP camps throughout NWFP. In addition, USAID/OTI
has provided to the government 500 out of 1,400 planned
non-food item kits for distribution in Jalala camp, Mardan
District, and is procuring 200 water cooler storage tanks for
distribution to IDP camps. These donations respond directly
to previous requests from the GOP. Henceforth, USAID/OTI
intends to focus its targeted assistance on hosted IDPs and
their hosting communities and on returns.

PATTERSON