UN IDP CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR WAZIRISTAN; MINGORA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001151 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER SUBJECT: UN IDP CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR WAZIRISTAN; MINGORA OPERATIONS CONTINUE ¶1. (SBU) Summary. On May 27, Ambassador met with representatives from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) to discuss OCHA's IDP contingency plan for the Waziristans, which will cost an additional USD 150 million over the recently launched revised UN appeal. OCHA expects up to 700,000 to flee the Waziristans when military operations begin there. The Pakistan military report that they have secured half of Mingora (Swat district),as well as approximately 90 percent of Buner district. ¶2. (SBU) In a May 27 meeting with Peshawar Principal Officer, Country Director for the International Crisis Group reported that those IDPs living with host families are currently suffering the most, and the way to ease the suffering is to remove the "middle men" (including local nazims) when distributing food, rehabilitation materials, and cash. USAID, the UN agencies and other humanitarian support groups continue to provide relief to the displaced populations both in and out of the camps. End Summary. OCHA CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR WAZIRISTAN OPERATIONS -------------- -- ¶3. (SBU) ON May 27, Ambassador met with Rashid Khalikov, the New York Director of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA),and Manuel Bessler, the Pakistan OCHA Director, to discuss OCHA's contingency plan for North and South Waziristan agencies within the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). With the approximate overall population of the Waziristans at 900,000 residents, both GOP and OCHA officials estimate that approximately 700,000 residents will leave the agencies once the Pakistan military operations commence. In preparation for the displacement, OCHA will likely ask for an additional USD 150 million on top of its revised UN Humanitarian Response Plan for over USD 500 million. This additional money will help support the OCHA contingency plan, which will address four clusters: food, shelter, water, and health. OCHA expects to have the GOP's contingency plan by the beginning of next week. ¶4. (SBU) Khalikov believes strongly that the displacement from the Waziristans will be different than the displacement in Malakand Division in that the needs of the people from the Waziristans will be much higher. According to his estimates, he believes that 10 percent of the Waziristan internally displaced persons (IDPs) will move into UN-funded camps; 60 percent will move in with host families and only need a portion of the assistance; and the remaining 30 percent will move in with host families that will be so impoverished that they too will need the full benefits a typical UN-funded IDP camp would provide. OCHA sees this remaining 30 percent as the most troublesome and the biggest difference between this displacement and the previous displacement in Malakand. MILITARY UPDATE -------------- SWAT District, Malakand Division, Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) ¶5. (U) In his daily press briefing on May 26, Major General Athar Abbas, the military's Inter-services Public Relations (DG ISPR) spokesman, reported that the operations in Swat were going well and Pakistan troops had secured control of half of the district's main city of Mingora through a series of house-to-house searches. Abbas also reported that in the various operations within Swat to date, 29 militants and six soldiers had been killed; another 14 militants had been captured; and 11 soldiers had been injured. Abbas announced that at this time, the Pakistan military had defused four improvised explosive devices (IEDs),regained control of the Malakand-Qambar-Mingora and the Kanju-Kabal roads, and continued in operations to secure Kabal city. BUNER District, Malakand Division, NWFP ¶6. (U) DG ISPR also reported on May 26 that the Pakistan military had cleared 90 percent of Buner, but militants ISLAMABAD 00001151 002 OF 004 remained at Pir Baba where the military would not engage out of respect for the location's shrine to the Sufi saint. SOUTH WAZIRISTAN Agency, FATA ¶7. (U) According to press reports, ground forces backed by tanks and helicopters moved into South Waziristan on May 26 from neighboring Frontier Region Jandola and engaged in initial operations. During the fighting, reports indicate that six militants were killed and 12 other militants and three security personnel were injured. The same reports note that a 15-member jirga of Mehsud tribesmen called upon the South Waziristan Political Agent to criticize the operations, saying that they were in talks with militant leaders. BAJAUR Agency, FATA ¶8. (U) On May 26, the Bajaur political administration announced that the Mamond tribesmen had six days to vacate the area before military operations would be starting again to root out militants. According to Bajaur Political Agent, Sharirullah Khan, he was left with no choice but to call for military action in Bajaur when the tribal elders failed to convince the Tabilan to stop fighting the security forces during their three-day talks. CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR IDPS -------------- "Cut Out the Middle Man for Relief Distribution" - ICG: ¶9. (SBU) In a May 27 meeting with Principal Officer Peshawar, Samina Ahmed, Country Director of the International Crisis Group (ICG),reported that IDP camps are in good shape and those living there are receiving the support they need. It is those IDPs living with host families that are suffering the most in that the relief being provided (i.e., food and materials) is insufficient for two major reasons: first, they are not paying the bills and other expenses of the host families, and second, the assistance is not getting the families back to their homes. Recognizing that the current food distributions are adequate at this time, Ahmed's solution for the long term is for the GOP and the international donor community to focus IDP assistance in terms of quick cash and not in terms of food distributions and rehabilitation materials. ¶10. (SBU) In Ahmed's view, the most efficient and transparent method for distributing quick cash to IDPs and host families is to expand the capabilities of the "smart cards" being issued to IDPs by the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA). In this expansion, the cards could not only contain biometric information about the cardholder and family for purposes of benefits, but they could be used as debit/bank cards as well, allowing the cardholder to have faster access to the monetary benefits, as promised under the Benazir Income Support Fund and other support mechanisms. Ahmed believes that by cutting out the middle man, such as local nazims and other layers of bureaucracy, for distribution of food/materials and using the smart cards for cash distribution, the chances of theft and fraud are reduced significantly while accountability and transparency is increased through the oversight of NADRA. (Note. The ICG plans to release a report on IDPs and their needs in the near future, date unknown. ICG will then brief the report in Washington. End note.) Humanitarian Situation: ¶11. (U) Beyond few reports of possible, unconfirmed Taliban or militant infiltration into the camps, Embassy has received no reports of law enforcement problems or criminal activity within the IDP camps. Logistics and Emergency Relief Supplies: ¶12. (U) OFDA has provided nearly USD 4.9 million to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) for the provision of emergency relief commodities, including 30,000 non-food item kits (NFIs). IOM has ordered all of the relief ISLAMABAD 00001151 003 OF 004 supplies, which will be consigned to UNHCR for distribution to a contracting issue at UNHCR. To date, UNHCR has received approximately 10,000 of the 30,000 funded kits, which either have been distributed or are being prepared for distribution to IDPs. The remaining 20,000 kits are in the logistics pipeline. ¶13. (U) Approximately 1,000 USAID/Pakistan-provided electric fans, as well as 500 fans provided by other donors, are beginning to reach IDP camps in Mardan. ¶14. (U) As of May 26, WFP and other UN agencies have established 32 humanitarian hubs for food and NFI distribution, including 23 hubs for the IDPs outside the camps. Food Assistance: ¶15. (U) As of May 26, WFP reported delivering 45,000 MT of food assistance to approximately 2.9 million people, including approximately 400,000 people in camps and approximately 2.5 million people outside of camps. WFP has distributed dry ration which includes wheat flour, pulses, vegetable oil, tea, salt and sugar. ¶16. (U) A humanitarian NGO informed the DART on May 26 that assessment teams had observed IDPs living outside of camps in Mardab District selling WFP-provided dry food rations in local markets, as the IDPs were receiving cooked meals from host communities and needed to purchase household and hygiene supplies. Health and Nutrition: ¶17. (U) The U.N. Health cluster reported that humanitarian organizations have established 16 mobile health teams and 43 static health facilities in IDP camps as of May 26. To date, cluster members have responded to 76 disease alerts and 24 notifications of potential outbreaks through the U.N. World Health Organization (WHO) - who managed Disease Early Warning System. USAID/OFDA is planning to provide additional support to WHO for the disease surveillance system. ¶18. (U) The U.N. Nutrition cluster noted that humanitarian organizations had treated nearly 6,500 children and more than 2,000 pregnant and lactating women in IDP camps, as well as providing therapeutic food, as of May 26. Education: ¶19. (U) The NWFP Minister of Education reported that as many as 1,500 schools in the province are currently serving as shelter for IDPs, a much higher estimate than the previous UN-provided figure of 500 schools. The Minister indicated that the schools would need to be repaired once the IDPs leave before instruction could resume and requested USAID consider future renovation assistance. ¶20. (U) The UN Education cluster reported that UN agencies and NGOs have set up 28 primary schools in the IDP camps serving 10,000 children. Approximately 4,500 displaced children outside the camps have been enrolled in formal classes meeting in the evenings. Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH): ¶21. (U) On May 26, The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) told DART staff that there were no acute WASH issues in any official camps. ¶22. (U) The UN WASH cluster members are continuing to provide approximately 4.1 million liters of safe drinking water to 150,000 IDPs in camps each day. Organizations participating in the WASH cluster have constructed 6,400 latrines and 3,000 bathing spaces to date. Pakistan Military Efforts: ¶23. (U) According to Abbas, five relief trucks of army rations had been sent to various IDP camps while four trucks ISLAMABAD 00001151 004 OF 004 of relief goods had been sent for the stranded people of Mingora, with six more expected to go soon. IDPs in Karachi: ¶24. (U) On May 26, the Sindh High Court issued notices to the federal and provincial attorneys to seek accommodations for approximately 600 IDP families from Swat and Malakand. (Note: According to press reports, approximately 12,000 IDPs reached Karachi between May 23 and 25 from different areas within the NWFP, and in response, the Sindh government visited various sites on the Super and National highways to establish relief camps. End note.) POLITICAL UPDATE -------------- ¶25. (U) According to press reports, Prime Minister Yousef Gilani on May 26 announced to a "Kissan" farmers' convention that he was declaring the Malakand Division as a "calamity-hit area," a move whose primary significance lay in the fact that it would waive federal taxes on land revenue. Gilani also stated that government authorities would manage the harvesting and marketing of the crops of those IDPs who remained outside of conflict zones in the Malakand Division and would keep the revenues from the sales of these items in trust prior to the return of the farmers. ¶26. (U) Press also reported that the NWFP government was on the verge of finalizing a long-term comprehensive development strategy, whose cost would be more than PKR 550 billion (approximately USD 620 million) over the next six years. (Note: As the NWFP government has already diverted all FY09 & FY10 development spending to IDP relief and expects a greatly increased public security expenditure against flat or declining provincial government revenue over the next several years, it is unclear whether this strategy will actually be implemented. End note.) ¶27. (SBU) In separate meetings with U.S. Consulate Peshawar staff on May 27, the NWFP Ministers of Environment and Commerce requested U.S. assistance in funding vocational education in the Malakand Division. Environment Minister Wajid Ali Khan, a member of a major landholding family from Mingora, told Consulate that such assistance would be the "single most important U.S. gift" in suppressing militancy in the Malakand Division. The Commerce Minister noted that without extensive vocational training, Malakand residents would be unable to benefit from restored peace and, in particular, from Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) at such time as enabling legislation is passed by the U.S. Congress. PATTERSON