UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001151

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: UN IDP CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR WAZIRISTAN; MINGORA
OPERATIONS CONTINUE


1. (SBU) Summary. On May 27, Ambassador met with
representatives from the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) to discuss OCHA's IDP contingency
plan for the Waziristans, which will cost an additional USD
150 million over the recently launched revised UN appeal.
OCHA expects up to 700,000 to flee the Waziristans when
military operations begin there. The Pakistan military
report that they have secured half of Mingora (Swat
district), as well as approximately 90 percent of Buner
district.


2. (SBU) In a May 27 meeting with Peshawar Principal Officer,
Country Director for the International Crisis Group reported
that those IDPs living with host families are currently
suffering the most, and the way to ease the suffering is to
remove the "middle men" (including local nazims) when
distributing food, rehabilitation materials, and cash. USAID,
the UN agencies and other humanitarian support groups
continue to provide relief to the displaced populations both
in and out of the camps. End Summary.

OCHA CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR WAZIRISTAN OPERATIONS
-------------- --


3. (SBU) ON May 27, Ambassador met with Rashid Khalikov, the
New York Director of the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and Manuel Bessler, the Pakistan
OCHA Director, to discuss OCHA's contingency plan for North
and South Waziristan agencies within the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). With the approximate
overall population of the Waziristans at 900,000 residents,
both GOP and OCHA officials estimate that approximately
700,000 residents will leave the agencies once the Pakistan
military operations commence. In preparation for the
displacement, OCHA will likely ask for an additional USD 150
million on top of its revised UN Humanitarian Response Plan

for over USD 500 million. This additional money will help
support the OCHA contingency plan, which will address four
clusters: food, shelter, water, and health. OCHA expects to
have the GOP's contingency plan by the beginning of next
week.


4. (SBU) Khalikov believes strongly that the displacement
from the Waziristans will be different than the displacement
in Malakand Division in that the needs of the people from the
Waziristans will be much higher. According to his estimates,
he believes that 10 percent of the Waziristan internally
displaced persons (IDPs) will move into UN-funded camps; 60
percent will move in with host families and only need a
portion of the assistance; and the remaining 30 percent will
move in with host families that will be so impoverished that
they too will need the full benefits a typical UN-funded IDP
camp would provide. OCHA sees this remaining 30 percent as
the most troublesome and the biggest difference between this
displacement and the previous displacement in Malakand.

MILITARY UPDATE
--------------

SWAT District, Malakand Division, Northwest Frontier Province
(NWFP)


5. (U) In his daily press briefing on May 26, Major General
Athar Abbas, the military's Inter-services Public Relations
(DG ISPR) spokesman, reported that the operations in Swat
were going well and Pakistan troops had secured control of
half of the district's main city of Mingora through a series
of house-to-house searches. Abbas also reported that in the
various operations within Swat to date, 29 militants and six
soldiers had been killed; another 14 militants had been
captured; and 11 soldiers had been injured. Abbas announced
that at this time, the Pakistan military had defused four
improvised explosive devices (IEDs), regained control of the
Malakand-Qambar-Mingora and the Kanju-Kabal roads, and
continued in operations to secure Kabal city.

BUNER District, Malakand Division, NWFP


6. (U) DG ISPR also reported on May 26 that the Pakistan
military had cleared 90 percent of Buner, but militants

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remained at Pir Baba where the military would not engage out
of respect for the location's shrine to the Sufi saint.

SOUTH WAZIRISTAN Agency, FATA


7. (U) According to press reports, ground forces backed by
tanks and helicopters moved into South Waziristan on May 26
from neighboring Frontier Region Jandola and engaged in
initial operations. During the fighting, reports indicate
that six militants were killed and 12 other militants and
three security personnel were injured. The same reports note
that a 15-member jirga of Mehsud tribesmen called upon the
South Waziristan Political Agent to criticize the operations,
saying that they were in talks with militant leaders.

BAJAUR Agency, FATA


8. (U) On May 26, the Bajaur political administration
announced that the Mamond tribesmen had six days to vacate
the area before military operations would be starting again
to root out militants. According to Bajaur Political Agent,
Sharirullah Khan, he was left with no choice but to call for
military action in Bajaur when the tribal elders failed to
convince the Tabilan to stop fighting the security forces
during their three-day talks.

CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR IDPS
--------------

"Cut Out the Middle Man for Relief Distribution" - ICG:


9. (SBU) In a May 27 meeting with Principal Officer Peshawar,
Samina Ahmed, Country Director of the International Crisis
Group (ICG), reported that IDP camps are in good shape and
those living there are receiving the support they need. It
is those IDPs living with host families that are suffering
the most in that the relief being provided (i.e., food and
materials) is insufficient for two major reasons: first, they
are not paying the bills and other expenses of the host
families, and second, the assistance is not getting the
families back to their homes. Recognizing that the current
food distributions are adequate at this time, Ahmed's
solution for the long term is for the GOP and the
international donor community to focus IDP assistance in
terms of quick cash and not in terms of food distributions
and rehabilitation materials.


10. (SBU) In Ahmed's view, the most efficient and transparent
method for distributing quick cash to IDPs and host families
is to expand the capabilities of the "smart cards" being
issued to IDPs by the National Database and Registration
Authority (NADRA). In this expansion, the cards could not
only contain biometric information about the cardholder and
family for purposes of benefits, but they could be used as
debit/bank cards as well, allowing the cardholder to have
faster access to the monetary benefits, as promised under the
Benazir Income Support Fund and other support mechanisms.
Ahmed believes that by cutting out the middle man, such as
local nazims and other layers of bureaucracy, for
distribution of food/materials and using the smart cards for
cash distribution, the chances of theft and fraud are reduced
significantly while accountability and transparency is
increased through the oversight of NADRA. (Note. The ICG
plans to release a report on IDPs and their needs in the near
future, date unknown. ICG will then brief the report in
Washington. End note.)

Humanitarian Situation:


11. (U) Beyond few reports of possible, unconfirmed Taliban
or militant infiltration into the camps, Embassy has received
no reports of law enforcement problems or criminal activity
within the IDP camps.

Logistics and Emergency Relief Supplies:


12. (U) OFDA has provided nearly USD 4.9 million to the
International Organization for Migration (IOM) for the
provision of emergency relief commodities, including 30,000
non-food item kits (NFIs). IOM has ordered all of the relief

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supplies, which will be consigned to UNHCR for distribution
to a contracting issue at UNHCR. To date, UNHCR has received
approximately 10,000 of the 30,000 funded kits, which either
have been distributed or are being prepared for distribution
to IDPs. The remaining 20,000 kits are in the logistics
pipeline.


13. (U) Approximately 1,000 USAID/Pakistan-provided electric
fans, as well as 500 fans provided by other donors, are
beginning to reach IDP camps in Mardan.


14. (U) As of May 26, WFP and other UN agencies have
established 32 humanitarian hubs for food and NFI
distribution, including 23 hubs for the IDPs outside the
camps.

Food Assistance:


15. (U) As of May 26, WFP reported delivering 45,000 MT of
food assistance to approximately 2.9 million people,
including approximately 400,000 people in camps and
approximately 2.5 million people outside of camps. WFP has
distributed dry ration which includes wheat flour, pulses,
vegetable oil, tea, salt and sugar.


16. (U) A humanitarian NGO informed the DART on May 26 that
assessment teams had observed IDPs living outside of camps in
Mardab District selling WFP-provided dry food rations in
local markets, as the IDPs were receiving cooked meals from
host communities and needed to purchase household and hygiene
supplies.

Health and Nutrition:


17. (U) The U.N. Health cluster reported that humanitarian
organizations have established 16 mobile health teams and 43
static health facilities in IDP camps as of May 26. To date,
cluster members have responded to 76 disease alerts and 24
notifications of potential outbreaks through the U.N. World
Health Organization (WHO) - who managed Disease Early Warning
System. USAID/OFDA is planning to provide additional support
to WHO for the disease surveillance system.


18. (U) The U.N. Nutrition cluster noted that humanitarian
organizations had treated nearly 6,500 children and more than
2,000 pregnant and lactating women in IDP camps, as well as
providing therapeutic food, as of May 26.

Education:


19. (U) The NWFP Minister of Education reported that as many
as 1,500 schools in the province are currently serving as
shelter for IDPs, a much higher estimate than the previous
UN-provided figure of 500 schools. The Minister indicated
that the schools would need to be repaired once the IDPs
leave before instruction could resume and requested USAID
consider future renovation assistance.


20. (U) The UN Education cluster reported that UN agencies
and NGOs have set up 28 primary schools in the IDP camps
serving 10,000 children. Approximately 4,500 displaced
children outside the camps have been enrolled in formal
classes meeting in the evenings.

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH):


21. (U) On May 26, The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) told DART
staff that there were no acute WASH issues in any official
camps.


22. (U) The UN WASH cluster members are continuing to provide
approximately 4.1 million liters of safe drinking water to
150,000 IDPs in camps each day. Organizations participating
in the WASH cluster have constructed 6,400 latrines and 3,000
bathing spaces to date.

Pakistan Military Efforts:


23. (U) According to Abbas, five relief trucks of army
rations had been sent to various IDP camps while four trucks

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of relief goods had been sent for the stranded people of
Mingora, with six more expected to go soon.

IDPs in Karachi:


24. (U) On May 26, the Sindh High Court issued notices to the
federal and provincial attorneys to seek accommodations for
approximately 600 IDP families from Swat and Malakand. (Note:
According to press reports, approximately 12,000 IDPs reached
Karachi between May 23 and 25 from different areas within the
NWFP, and in response, the Sindh government visited various
sites on the Super and National highways to establish relief
camps. End note.)

POLITICAL UPDATE
--------------


25. (U) According to press reports, Prime Minister Yousef
Gilani on May 26 announced to a "Kissan" farmers' convention
that he was declaring the Malakand Division as a
"calamity-hit area," a move whose primary significance lay in
the fact that it would waive federal taxes on land revenue.
Gilani also stated that government authorities would manage
the harvesting and marketing of the crops of those IDPs who
remained outside of conflict zones in the Malakand Division
and would keep the revenues from the sales of these items in
trust prior to the return of the farmers.


26. (U) Press also reported that the NWFP government was on
the verge of finalizing a long-term comprehensive development
strategy, whose cost would be more than PKR 550 billion
(approximately USD 620 million) over the next six years.
(Note: As the NWFP government has already diverted all FY09 &
FY10 development spending to IDP relief and expects a greatly
increased public security expenditure against flat or
declining provincial government revenue over the next several
years, it is unclear whether this strategy will actually be
implemented. End note.)


27. (SBU) In separate meetings with U.S. Consulate Peshawar
staff on May 27, the NWFP Ministers of Environment and
Commerce requested U.S. assistance in funding vocational
education in the Malakand Division. Environment Minister
Wajid Ali Khan, a member of a major landholding family from
Mingora, told Consulate that such assistance would be the
"single most important U.S. gift" in suppressing militancy in
the Malakand Division. The Commerce Minister noted that
without extensive vocational training, Malakand residents
would be unable to benefit from restored peace and, in
particular, from Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) at
such time as enabling legislation is passed by the U.S.
Congress.
PATTERSON