SUPREME COURT DECLARES THE SHARIFS ELIGIBLE AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001141 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KJUS PINR PK SUBJECT: SUPREME COURT DECLARES THE SHARIFS ELIGIBLE AGAIN REF: A. ISLAMABAD 415 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 378 ¶C. ISLAMABAD 141 ¶D. LAHORE 11 ¶E. LAHORE 9 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On May 26, the Supreme Court reversed its February 25 decision and declared both Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif eligible to run for and serve in public office. This seals the final reinstatement of Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister of Punjab and clears the way for Nawaz to run (and win within 20-30 days) a by-election in Lahore for a seat in the National Assembly. The Sharifs welcomed the decision; PM Gilani congratulated them; President Zardari wondered to Ambassador what the decision would mean for his future. Nawaz's return to the national stage, in Post's view, marks the beginning of Nawaz's efforts to again become Prime Minister. In the interim, however, we may see a period of cooperation between Nawaz and the Pakistan People's Party government. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On May 26, a five member bench of the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the review petitions filed on May 11 by Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif. The petitions asked the Court to overturn its February 25 decision to declare Nawaz Sharif ineligible to run for public office because of his hijacking and corruption convictions in 2000, and to declare Shahbaz Sharif ineligible to have become Chief Minister because of a financial default case. The Sharifs, who did not recognize the February 25 bench because it was dominated by judges appointed by former President Musharraf, did not appear in Court during the original case. ¶3. (C) The disqualification of Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif provoked a national political crisis after President Zardari, in an ill-advised decision, imposed governor's rule in Punjab. The Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) party led by the Sharifs intensified its support for the judiciary deposed by Musharraf and turned the lawyers' long march into a political challenge to Zardari, who was forced to back down and on March 16 agree to reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhry as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. On March 31, in response to a request by the Sharifs, the Court issued a stay order on its February 25 decision, allowing Shahbaz Sharif to be reinstated temporarily as Chief Minister. Today's decision makes that reinstatement final. ¶4. (C) Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif, who clearly were pleased, immediately held separate press conferences to hail the decision as a triumph for democracy and testimony of an independent judiciary. PML-N Information Secretary Ahsan Iqbal confirmed that Nawaz would go forward with contesting a by-election in Lahore; "his papers are already filed, so all that is left is the campaign period." Iqbal expected Nawaz would be elected within 20-30 days and said it would be "logical" for Nawaz to take over from Chaudhry Nisar as Opposition Leader in the National Assembly. This would give Nawaz an official role through which to take a more active role in government, and this would give "stability" to the democratic process. ¶5. (C) President Zardari, meeting Ambassador on the heels of a congressional visit after the decision, also said he expected Nawaz to run for his National Assembly seat but asked, "then what does this mean for me?" Presidential Spokesperson Farah Isphani told Polcouns just before the decision that the ruling would favor both Nawaz and Shahbaz and, resignedly said she expected this to be followed with more political drama. According to the press, PM Gilani immediately congratulated the Sharifs on the Court's decision. ¶6. (C) Comment: Although Nawaz hailed the decision as demonstrating the independence of the judiciary, this decision appeared as politically motivated as the earlier disqualification by a Court dominated by Zardari. Iftikhar Chaudhry's reinstatement was effected largely by Nawaz and came about with an agreement not to rock the political boat. Election to the National Assembly, especially as Opposition Leader, will give Nawaz a platform to either contest Zardari or to support the PPP government as it struggles with continuing security and economic challenges. Regardless of ISLAMABAD 00001141 002 OF 002 any short-term cooperation with the PPP, Post believes this decisions marks the beginning of Nawaz's next run at being Prime Minister. End comment. PATTERSON