NADEEM: IDP'S HOLDING AT 1.5 MILLION;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001098

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PREF PHUM EAID MARR PK
SUBJECT: NADEEM: IDP'S HOLDING AT 1.5 MILLION;
REHABILITATION ESTIMATE UNDERWAY

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary: IDP Special Support Group leader Lt General
Nadeem told Ambassador and PO Peshawar May 29 that the number
of IDPs was holding at 1.5 million but could grow to two
million when military operations begin in the Waziristans.
IDPs were returning to Bajaur in FATA; Buner was now safe for
returnees. He outlined a proposed incentive package for IDPs
that included two months' food rations, non-food item kits,
tools and tent, a medical exam and 25,000 PKR (USD 312) in
cash; the GOP may request budgetary support to fund these
packages at a donors' meeting in Islamabad scheduled for May

21. Nadeem had almost finished a preliminary needs
assessment for rehabilitation and planned to submit it to the
World Bank for a cost estimate this week. The weakest link
in the GOP's IDP strategy, however, was the lack of capable
civil servants to deliver government services when IDPs
returned home. Nadeem and Ambassador agreed that perhaps a
private-sector CEO, backed by technical experts and requisite
bureaucrats, could lead civilian surge to provide these
services. This effort was critical to countering militant
propaganda about the GOP's inability to deliver quick
justice, good governance, and social services. Post has
already followed up on Nadeem's recommendation that we
continue to press the GOP to let us rebuild police stations.
End Summary.


2. (U) Ambassador and PO Peshawar called on IDP Special
Support Group leader Lt General Nadeem on May 29 at his
headquarters in Peshawar. Office of Defense Representative
Pakistan Chief Rear Admiral LeFever, Polcouns, and UK Embassy
Defense Representative Sherry also attended.

IDP Count
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3. (C) Nadeem continues to plan on the basis of 1.5 million
IDPs, although he expects that number could rise to 2 million
within the next two to three months when military operations
begin in the Waziristans. He suggested there could be up to
a 20 percent distortion in the 1.5 million number because of
double registration and registration of people from areas
contiguous to but not directly affected by the conflict. The
numbers could remain relatively stable, but actual IDPs would
be different due to the changing areas of conflict and
returns. (Note: UNHCR is reporting a higher figure.)

Swat Valley
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4. (C) Asked about civilians who had yet to flee the conflict
area, Nadeem said that an overflight of Mingora yesterday
showed that there were very few civilians left in the city.
A government decision to fund disbursement of flour from the
local mill had helped feed the remaining population. Nadeem
sent ten trucks of Army-provided food supplies to the
northern Swat Valley and planned to continue this as a convoy
chain in the coming days, with the help of a local
parliamentarian. He had allowed the ICRC to return to Lower
Dir, Buner and Daggar, where they were delivering relief
supplies. Buner was safe for returnees; there was still some
fighting around Matta.

Return Incentive Packages
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5. (C) Nadeem reported that 230,000 IDPs had returned to
Bajaur in the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA),but
they still needed humanitarian assistance. Nadeem was
recommending that IDPs before returning home receive a
medical exam, two months' food rations (from the World Food
Program),non-food item kits (being provided by UNHCR),tools
(USAID has propositioned tool kits in Bajaur),and 25,000 PKR
(USD 312) cash. After a damage assessment, families would be
able to receive 150,000 (USD 1875) PKR for totally destroyed
homes or 100,000 PKR (USD 1250) for partially destroyed
homes; the initial 25,000 PKR would be subtracted from these
amounts. Nadeem expected that the federal government would
appeal to donors for budgetary support to fund this
assistance.


6. (C) The GOP has invited 58 donors to a meeting in

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Islamabad on May 21; following this, Nadeem expected that the
UN would launch formally its latest consolidated appeal for
IDPs. Nadeem will make a presentation at this conference and
said he would outline a plan for a cluster-based (health,
education, sanitation, etc) appeal for: (1) communities in
conflict zones; (2) host families; and (3) IDPs living in
camps. Nadeem had ordered an initial damage assessment that
he expected to be finished May 19. He planned to pass that
assessment to the World Bank to provide an initial ball-park
estimate of the costs of reconstruction this week, and the
World Bank will undertake a more detailed assessment. RAdm
Lefever repeated the USG offer to assist with an aerial
damage assessment. Nadeem was asking the World Bank to
examine rehabilitation needs for health, education,
sanitation, roads and bridges, power, and telecommunications.



7. (C) Ambassador offered assistance on strategic
communications and reported that USAID had purchased 40,000
radios, which was all that was available in Pakistan; we had
ordered additional radios from China but these would take 6-8
weeks to arrive. Nadeem said the NWFP government should
control the IDP media cell; he wanted to establish a
designated FM radio station and network but this would take
4-5 months to set up. They would need to de-conflict with
existing Frontier Corps and commercial station networks. In
the meantime, he planned to buy time from existing radio
networks. Nadeem welcomed the assistance of a consultant to
develop coordinated content; he recalled that during the
earthquake USAID had contracted to a local FM station to do
this job, and he suggested this ideally could be repeated
today.

Civilian Administration: The Weak Link
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8. (C) The biggest challenge, said Nadeem, was not organizing
relief camps but re-establishing the government's ability to
deliver services to populations who returned to affected
areas. The militants successfully implemented a propaganda
campaign based on citizen complaints about quick justice,
good governance, and delivery of social services. If the
government could not deliver on these three things, then the
militants gradually would regain influence and the Army would
have to intervene yet again. This was the weakest, yet most
critical link, in the government's strategy.


9. (C) Nadeem explained that what was needed was a civilian
surge of competent administrators who speak Pashtun. He had
told the Prime Minister and NWFP Chief Minister that they
must move immediately to choose a cadre of qualified
personnel. He would raise this with President Zardari as
well. (Note: Nadeem was supposed to brief Zardari today,
but PM Gilani wanted to brief the President first.)
Ambassador wondered if the GOP could identify a
private-sector CEO who would be willing to donate a year to
this effort; Nadeem thought this was an excellent idea if
this person was supported by technical experts and had the
buy-in from relative GOP departments. He suggested that the
GOP tap recently retired military officers or civil servants
from the area. (Note: The Ambassador raised the urgent need
for competent civil administrators with President Asif
Zardari later in the day but got little traction.)


10. (C) Asked if his 37th Division would perform hold
operations until the civilians returned, Nadeem backtracked
on earlier comments and suggested that the NWFP government
had other ideas. Chief Minister Hoti had suggested
reconstituting a now defunct support unit that had promoted
development and employment during the 2005 earthquake.
Nadeem and Ambassador agreed that the current crisis was too
massive for this sort of approach. He suggested that the
Embassy contact the NWFP Home Secretary to arrange assistance
in strengthening/rebuilding police stations in the region.


PATTERSON