MILITARY OPERATIONS UPDATE: MAY 18

S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 001078

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2019
TAGS: PREL PREF PHUM EAID PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: MILITARY OPERATIONS UPDATE: MAY 18

REF: PESHAWAR 101

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (S) Summary: The Pakistani Army and Special Services
Group (SSG-special forces) continue to prepare for an assault
on Swat's main town of Mingora as militants reinforce and
resupply their positions. The Army/SSG have lifted the
curfew on Mingora several times in an attempt to empty the
town and avoid excessive civilian casualties in this urban
environment. The Frontier Corps (FC),advancing in Buner,
has declared the southern part of the district secure, and
some IDPs have reportedly started to return. The press
reported that in Lower Dir electricity had been restored and
government employees have been told to return to their posts.
Interior Minister Malik announced that the GOP had killed
1,000 militants; this number, as well as the total of GOP
military and civilians killed, remains unconfirmed.


2. (C) The GOP still lacks a coherent "hold" strategy; until
law enforcement proves capable of returning, the Army's 37th
Infantry Division, commanded by IDP coordinator Lt. General
Nadeem, plans to hold territory cleared of militants. From
London, President Zardari announced the Swat fight would
continue into the Waziristans and asked for $1 billion in
support for IDPs. Several civil society groups, including a
jirga in Swat and a conference of 2,000 Muslim clerics in
Islamabad, condemned taliban actions. The U.S. military
plans to air lift relief supplies for IDPs this week; we are
preparing press guidance to supplement the President's
announcement of USG humanitarian aid. See septel for an
update on IDP-related activities. End Summary.

Military Update
--------------


3. (S) According to Embassy sources, militants continue to
reinforce and resupply via various routes in Swat valley.
They are utilizing old coal mines and the terrain in the
vicinity of the town of Peochar in Swat to hold the area.
Militants in Mingora, the capital of Swat, continue to
prepare buildings and adjacent terrain for defensive
operations. In Buner, militants continue to heavily resist
Frontier Corps (FC) forces in and around the village of
Sultanwas.


4. (S) The Pakistan Army and Special Services Group (SSG)
continue to prepare for an offensive in the next few days
against Mingora. Multiple sources report that they have held
off attacks so far in an effort to seal mountain passes
around the Swat Valley and to allow as much of the civilian
population to evacuate as possible. The SSG continues to
infiltrate the town of Peochar, the stronghold of
Tehrik-i-Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah; three SSG
battalions were inserted via air on May 16. The SSG at
present reportedly controls the high ground surrounding
Peochar Valley. Helicopter gunships remain in the area
supporting their operations. The Pakistani press reported
that ground troops moved into Matta and Kanju, east of the
Peochar valley, on May 17.


5. (S) The Frontier Corps (FC) continues to advance in the
Buner District near Sultanwas and is reportedly encountering
heavy militant resistance. The FC is making heavy use of
artillery while all available aviation currently operates
instead of army troops in Swat. The FC declared southern
Buner secure and reportedly IDPs have started to return.


6. (C) Meanwhile as the number of displaced persons continues
to grow, (estimates of 1.7 million and growing),the
residents of Matta, north of Mingora and east of Peochar,
were advised to evacuate and move to a safe place by 6:00 pm
local time May 17. See septel for an update on IDP-related
activities.

Plans for a "Hold" Operation
--------------


7. (C) The GOP continues to lack a coherent plan to hold
areas cleared of militants; PM Gilani has stressed the

importance of having the Army withdraw as soon as possible,
to be replaced by law enforcement personnel. However, the
NWFP police lack the heavy weapons, protective gear, hardened
stations/vehicles, and training to be an effective hold
force. Lt General Nadeem told Office of Defense
Representative Pakistan Chief May 18 that he would use his
37th division as the hold piece for the immediate and
medium-term. Post continues to offer assistance to the
Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) police and the Ministry of
Interior to rebuild/strengthen police stations in Malakand.

Casualties/Damages
--------------


8. (C) Interior Minister Malik announced May 17 that GOP
forces had killed 1,000 militants; we cannot verify this
number. To date, Pakistani military estimates of its own
casualties appear low -- 29 soldiers -- killed to date in
this current operation. Reports of civilian casualties also
remain sketchy and unconfirmed.


9. (C) Malik called on the taliban to lay down their arms
and encouraged IDPs from Dir and Buner to return to their
homes; Post has suggested to the GOP that this appeal may be
premature. The press reported that in Lower Dir electricity
had been restored and government employees have been told to
return to their posts. Separately, President Zardari,
speaking from London, announced that the Swat operation was
the start of a larger campaign that would include the
Waziristans. He appealed to the world community for $1
billion in aid to the IDPs. As expected (reftel),the NWFP
government on May 16 announced that it had frozen its
27.4-billion rupee (USD 342.5 million) development budget for
2009 to reallocate those monies to IDP relief.


10. (C) A Dawn newspaper correspondent reported May 18 on
the devastation from combat operations in Daggar, Buner,
after recent operations. The damage included homes and shops
riddled with bullet holes and broken electricity poles. The
local District Coordination Officer and the few remaining
local residents who remained or returned to harvest their
wheat crop expressed concern that pockets of militants
(including up to 350 Arabs and Uzbeks) remained near Daggar
controlling key routes and villages.

Civil Society Pushback
--------------


11. (C) A jirga, composed of elders from the Swat area and
held in Peshawar on May 17, called on all parties in Pakistan
to support the operations in Swat, specifically criticizing
the leaders of the Jamaat-i-Islami and Tehrik i-Insaf parties
for their lack of support of the fight in Swat. The meeting,
which included the district nazims for Swat and Batkhela,
also called for the investigation of
Tanzim-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammedi leader Sufi Mohammed and
former Malakand Commissioner Syed Mohammed Javed for their
roles in aiding the militants, penetration of Swat and
adjoining districts. According to one of the participants,
the jirga was formed at the instigation of the Swat-resident
NWFP leader of the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party; however,
participants included Swatis from a range of parties and
independent elders.


12. (SBU) Leading Sunni Muslim clerics met May 17 in
Islamabad and declared suicide attacks and beheadings to be
un-Islamic. They endorsed military action in Malakand,
saying this was a "war for Pakistan's integrity and
sovereignty;" they also criticized alleged U.S. drone attacks
(septel).

U.S. MILITARY TO AIR LIFT RELIEF SUPPLIES
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


13. (SBU) On May 20, in response to specific requests from
the GOP, the U.S. military will deliver via C-17 100,000
Halal meal packages and 25 large (16 x 16) tents and air
conditioners for distribution by local authorities. This
delivery will include media engagement, conditioned upon
approval of Lt General Nadeem, to highlight the amount of

humanitarian assistance to IDPs the U.S. has provided since
August 2008.
PATTERSON