MILITARY OPERATIONS UPDATE: MAY 18

S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 001078 NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2019 TAGS: PREL PREF PHUM EAID PGOV PTER PK SUBJECT: MILITARY OPERATIONS UPDATE: MAY 18 REF: PESHAWAR 101 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (S) Summary: The Pakistani Army and Special Services Group (SSG-special forces) continue to prepare for an assault on Swat's main town of Mingora as militants reinforce and resupply their positions. The Army/SSG have lifted the curfew on Mingora several times in an attempt to empty the town and avoid excessive civilian casualties in this urban environment. The Frontier Corps (FC),advancing in Buner, has declared the southern part of the district secure, and some IDPs have reportedly started to return. The press reported that in Lower Dir electricity had been restored and government employees have been told to return to their posts. Interior Minister Malik announced that the GOP had killed 1,000 militants; this number, as well as the total of GOP military and civilians killed, remains unconfirmed. ¶2. (C) The GOP still lacks a coherent "hold" strategy; until law enforcement proves capable of returning, the Army's 37th Infantry Division, commanded by IDP coordinator Lt. General Nadeem, plans to hold territory cleared of militants. From London, President Zardari announced the Swat fight would continue into the Waziristans and asked for $1 billion in support for IDPs. Several civil society groups, including a jirga in Swat and a conference of 2,000 Muslim clerics in Islamabad, condemned taliban actions. The U.S. military plans to air lift relief supplies for IDPs this week; we are preparing press guidance to supplement the President's announcement of USG humanitarian aid. See septel for an update on IDP-related activities. End Summary. Military Update -------------- ¶3. (S) According to Embassy sources, militants continue to reinforce and resupply via various routes in Swat valley. They are utilizing old coal mines and the terrain in the vicinity of the town of Peochar in Swat to hold the area. Militants in Mingora, the capital of Swat, continue to prepare buildings and adjacent terrain for defensive operations. In Buner, militants continue to heavily resist Frontier Corps (FC) forces in and around the village of Sultanwas. ¶4. (S) The Pakistan Army and Special Services Group (SSG) continue to prepare for an offensive in the next few days against Mingora. Multiple sources report that they have held off attacks so far in an effort to seal mountain passes around the Swat Valley and to allow as much of the civilian population to evacuate as possible. The SSG continues to infiltrate the town of Peochar, the stronghold of Tehrik-i-Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah; three SSG battalions were inserted via air on May 16. The SSG at present reportedly controls the high ground surrounding Peochar Valley. Helicopter gunships remain in the area supporting their operations. The Pakistani press reported that ground troops moved into Matta and Kanju, east of the Peochar valley, on May 17. ¶5. (S) The Frontier Corps (FC) continues to advance in the Buner District near Sultanwas and is reportedly encountering heavy militant resistance. The FC is making heavy use of artillery while all available aviation currently operates instead of army troops in Swat. The FC declared southern Buner secure and reportedly IDPs have started to return. ¶6. (C) Meanwhile as the number of displaced persons continues to grow, (estimates of 1.7 million and growing),the residents of Matta, north of Mingora and east of Peochar, were advised to evacuate and move to a safe place by 6:00 pm local time May 17. See septel for an update on IDP-related activities. Plans for a "Hold" Operation -------------- ¶7. (C) The GOP continues to lack a coherent plan to hold areas cleared of militants; PM Gilani has stressed the importance of having the Army withdraw as soon as possible, to be replaced by law enforcement personnel. However, the NWFP police lack the heavy weapons, protective gear, hardened stations/vehicles, and training to be an effective hold force. Lt General Nadeem told Office of Defense Representative Pakistan Chief May 18 that he would use his 37th division as the hold piece for the immediate and medium-term. Post continues to offer assistance to the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) police and the Ministry of Interior to rebuild/strengthen police stations in Malakand. Casualties/Damages -------------- ¶8. (C) Interior Minister Malik announced May 17 that GOP forces had killed 1,000 militants; we cannot verify this number. To date, Pakistani military estimates of its own casualties appear low -- 29 soldiers -- killed to date in this current operation. Reports of civilian casualties also remain sketchy and unconfirmed. ¶9. (C) Malik called on the taliban to lay down their arms and encouraged IDPs from Dir and Buner to return to their homes; Post has suggested to the GOP that this appeal may be premature. The press reported that in Lower Dir electricity had been restored and government employees have been told to return to their posts. Separately, President Zardari, speaking from London, announced that the Swat operation was the start of a larger campaign that would include the Waziristans. He appealed to the world community for $1 billion in aid to the IDPs. As expected (reftel),the NWFP government on May 16 announced that it had frozen its 27.4-billion rupee (USD 342.5 million) development budget for 2009 to reallocate those monies to IDP relief. ¶10. (C) A Dawn newspaper correspondent reported May 18 on the devastation from combat operations in Daggar, Buner, after recent operations. The damage included homes and shops riddled with bullet holes and broken electricity poles. The local District Coordination Officer and the few remaining local residents who remained or returned to harvest their wheat crop expressed concern that pockets of militants (including up to 350 Arabs and Uzbeks) remained near Daggar controlling key routes and villages. Civil Society Pushback -------------- ¶11. (C) A jirga, composed of elders from the Swat area and held in Peshawar on May 17, called on all parties in Pakistan to support the operations in Swat, specifically criticizing the leaders of the Jamaat-i-Islami and Tehrik i-Insaf parties for their lack of support of the fight in Swat. The meeting, which included the district nazims for Swat and Batkhela, also called for the investigation of Tanzim-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammedi leader Sufi Mohammed and former Malakand Commissioner Syed Mohammed Javed for their roles in aiding the militants, penetration of Swat and adjoining districts. According to one of the participants, the jirga was formed at the instigation of the Swat-resident NWFP leader of the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party; however, participants included Swatis from a range of parties and independent elders. ¶12. (SBU) Leading Sunni Muslim clerics met May 17 in Islamabad and declared suicide attacks and beheadings to be un-Islamic. They endorsed military action in Malakand, saying this was a "war for Pakistan's integrity and sovereignty;" they also criticized alleged U.S. drone attacks (septel). U.S. MILITARY TO AIR LIFT RELIEF SUPPLIES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶13. (SBU) On May 20, in response to specific requests from the GOP, the U.S. military will deliver via C-17 100,000 Halal meal packages and 25 large (16 x 16) tents and air conditioners for distribution by local authorities. This delivery will include media engagement, conditioned upon approval of Lt General Nadeem, to highlight the amount of humanitarian assistance to IDPs the U.S. has provided since August 2008. PATTERSON