GOP'S POLITICAL OFFENSIVE ON SWAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001045 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF MOPS EAID PK SUBJECT: GOP'S POLITICAL OFFENSIVE ON SWAT REF: A. ISLAMABAD 991 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 1042 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Addressing the National Assembly May 14, PM Gilani briefed parliamentarians on the government's strategy in Swat, Northwest Frontier Province, particularly efforts to assist the displaced (IDPs) (reftels). He announced he would convene an all parties, conference on May 18; Chief of Army Staff Kayani briefed political party leaders May 15 on the "operational aspects" of the current military offensive. Gilani emphasized the establishment of a GOP interagency "special support group" to help IDPs, and announced Information Minister Kaira would brief the press daily on the situation. But many politicos across the spectrum warned that if the growing numbers of and worsening conditions for IDPs are not addressed, public support for the current operation could fade fast, making the taliban even stronger. Some in the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz are already calling for "peace talks" and timelines. End summary. Gilani Addresses Parliament - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) On May 14, Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani addressed the parliament stating, "If we lose this war, we lose the country; we simply cannot afford losing; we must win, and we shall; the Army shall carry on the operation until the desired objectives are achieved, no matter how long it takes." He assured legislators that the Army would win the war against the taliban and urged political leaders to back the GOP's "hearts and minds" campaign as well. "If we win militarily and lose publicly, it will be very unfortunate," he added. ¶3. (U) The PM said the displacement was unprecedented in the country's history, "and we will tackle this problem with unprecedented sense of sacrifice." He reiterated the establishment of a special interagency support group to take care of the registration and welfare of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in all 12 relief camps; National Assembly Speaker Dr. Fehmida Mirza visited one in Mardan the same day. Gilani promised all funds would be utilized transparently, with details posted on a website. He also said parliamentarians from the area who had been threatened by the taliban would be protected. Gilani announced Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira would brief the press daily on the situation. Gilani and Kayani Hitting the Political Bases - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) In his May 14 address, Gilani also announced he would convene an all parties, conference (APC) on May 18. The party representatives would discuss "issues of national security with a special focus on Swat and Malakand divisions." After the speech, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Babar Awan held out the possibility that security issues in Balochistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) might also be discussed. ¶5. (C) Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kayani briefed in camera parliamentary leaders in the National Assembly on May ¶15. According to attendees who met later with the Ambassador, Kayani gave a complete brief on the operational aspects of the Army offensive in Swat. The briefing fulfills recent demands by the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Opposition Chooses Battles Carefully - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (U) Members from across party lines have called for concerted efforts to care for IDPs and for unified support of the Army operations. Some warned, however, if the GOP failed to properly address the growing IDP ranks, resulting in a humanitarian crisis, the country could face an even worse security situation than before the offensive. ¶7. (U) Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Javed Hashmi is already calling for dialogue: "I am ready to go to the taliban and talk to them for peace." He intimated "external pressure" was behind the current clash and ISLAMABAD 00001045 002 OF 002 described a "conspiracy" to weaken the Pakistani state. Fellow PML-N parliamentarian Khurram Dastgir chimed in, saying the decision to launch an Army operation showed the "bankruptcy of the current government strategy," adding this conventional military response would not lead to a permanent solution. Militants had already transferred to the FATA, he informed the media. And PML-N parliamentary chief Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan has called for a timeframe to end military operations. ¶8. (U) But creeping criticism was not left solely to the official opposition. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) representative Maulvi Asmatullah similarly blamed the current situation on the GOP's need to "appease foreign powers." In contrast, though in opposition, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) has generally been supportive. PML member Raza Hayat Hiraj, as an example, was quoted as saying, "Losing this battle against the militants is not an option now." PATTERSON