GOP'S POLITICAL OFFENSIVE ON SWAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001045

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF MOPS EAID PK
SUBJECT: GOP'S POLITICAL OFFENSIVE ON SWAT

REF: A. ISLAMABAD 991

B. ISLAMABAD 1042

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: Addressing the National Assembly May 14, PM
Gilani briefed parliamentarians on the government's strategy
in Swat, Northwest Frontier Province, particularly efforts to
assist the displaced (IDPs) (reftels). He announced he would
convene an all parties, conference on May 18; Chief of Army
Staff Kayani briefed political party leaders May 15 on the
"operational aspects" of the current military offensive.
Gilani emphasized the establishment of a GOP interagency
"special support group" to help IDPs, and announced
Information Minister Kaira would brief the press daily on the
situation. But many politicos across the spectrum warned
that if the growing numbers of and worsening conditions for
IDPs are not addressed, public support for the current
operation could fade fast, making the taliban even stronger.
Some in the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz are
already calling for "peace talks" and timelines. End summary.

Gilani Addresses Parliament
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2. (U) On May 14, Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani addressed the
parliament stating, "If we lose this war, we lose the
country; we simply cannot afford losing; we must win, and we
shall; the Army shall carry on the operation until the
desired objectives are achieved, no matter how long it
takes." He assured legislators that the Army would win the
war against the taliban and urged political leaders to back
the GOP's "hearts and minds" campaign as well. "If we win
militarily and lose publicly, it will be very unfortunate,"
he added.


3. (U) The PM said the displacement was unprecedented in the
country's history, "and we will tackle this problem with
unprecedented sense of sacrifice." He reiterated the
establishment of a special interagency support group to take
care of the registration and welfare of internally displaced
persons (IDPs) in all 12 relief camps; National Assembly
Speaker Dr. Fehmida Mirza visited one in Mardan the same day.
Gilani promised all funds would be utilized transparently,
with details posted on a website. He also said
parliamentarians from the area who had been threatened by the
taliban would be protected. Gilani announced Information
Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira would brief the press daily on the
situation.

Gilani and Kayani Hitting the Political Bases
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4. (U) In his May 14 address, Gilani also announced he would
convene an all parties, conference (APC) on May 18. The
party representatives would discuss "issues of national
security with a special focus on Swat and Malakand
divisions." After the speech, Parliamentary Affairs Minister
Babar Awan held out the possibility that security issues in
Balochistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA) might also be discussed.


5. (C) Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kayani briefed in
camera parliamentary leaders in the National Assembly on May

15. According to attendees who met later with the
Ambassador, Kayani gave a complete brief on the operational
aspects of the Army offensive in Swat. The briefing fulfills
recent demands by the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N)

Opposition Chooses Battles Carefully
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6. (U) Members from across party lines have called for
concerted efforts to care for IDPs and for unified support of
the Army operations. Some warned, however, if the GOP failed
to properly address the growing IDP ranks, resulting in a
humanitarian crisis, the country could face an even worse
security situation than before the offensive.


7. (U) Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Javed
Hashmi is already calling for dialogue: "I am ready to go to
the taliban and talk to them for peace." He intimated
"external pressure" was behind the current clash and

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described a "conspiracy" to weaken the Pakistani state.
Fellow PML-N parliamentarian Khurram Dastgir chimed in,
saying the decision to launch an Army operation showed the
"bankruptcy of the current government strategy," adding this
conventional military response would not lead to a permanent
solution. Militants had already transferred to the FATA, he
informed the media. And PML-N parliamentary chief Chaudhry
Nisar Ali Khan has called for a timeframe to end military
operations.


8. (U) But creeping criticism was not left solely to the
official opposition. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F)
representative Maulvi Asmatullah similarly blamed the current
situation on the GOP's need to "appease foreign powers." In
contrast, though in opposition, the Pakistan Muslim League
(PML) has generally been supportive. PML member Raza Hayat
Hiraj, as an example, was quoted as saying, "Losing this
battle against the militants is not an option now."

PATTERSON