IRI POLL: NAWAZ CONTINUES TO GAIN GROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001043 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MOPS PTER PK SUBJECT: IRI POLL: NAWAZ CONTINUES TO GAIN GROUND REF: 08 ISLAMABAD 3796 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The results of the latest International Republican Institute (IRI) poll, which was taken at the height of the lawyers' long march, unsurprisingly showed Nawaz Sharif continuing his lead over President Asif Zardari; Nawaz's approval rating stood at 75 percent compared to Zardari's 17 percent. If an election were held today, Nawaz's Pakistan Muslim League-N party would take 62 percent of the vote (up 24 points); the Pakistan People's Party would collect only 17 percent; no other party garnered more than 3 percent. Inflation and unemployment worried Pakistanis more (over 70 percent) than terrorism (10 percent),although there was a slight rise in optimism about the future. The Army is back to its historic 80 percent favorability rating. The good news was some movement in public concern about extremism and support for both Pakistani Army action against terrorists and working with the U.S. to combat that extremism. End summary. Parameters and Plans - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) On May 5, International Republican Institute (IRI) country representative Nick Palarino briefed the Charge on the organization's most recent national poll, its tenth in just under three years. Palarino met with representatives of the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) on May 11, and Pakistan Muslim League (PML) on May 12. This latest poll, taken March 7-30, coincided with the lawyers' long march and PPP/PML-N row; it concluded before the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation was signed or the Army offensive against the taliban in Swat, Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). IRI's last national poll was conducted October 15-30, 2008. ¶3. (C) Palarino announced IRI's new initiative to conduct provincial polls, including one on Punjab released last month and another on Balochistan currently in the field. He suggested IRI might soon conduct focus groups with Pakistani youth and young professionals, as well as with party workers. He hoped to deliver more frequent and fresher national and provincial poll results during his tenure. The organization would be looking at multiple funding sources to accomplish this goal. Extremists Less Popular; Mixed Reactions on Shari'a - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Rising 14 points, 74 percent of Pakistanis now feel religious extremism in their country is a serious problem; 69 percent worry about the Taliban and al-Qaida, up 18 percent. An even 60 percent of Pakistanis feel less secure now than they did last year, though this is one of the lowest reactions over the last couple of years. These security concerns have benefited the Pakistani Army, whose popularity is back up to the historical high of 80 percent; 45 percent specifically support the Army's fight against extremists (and this before its most recent actions). ¶5. (C) Pakistanis' feelings on the U.S., in the main, lean negative, though responses were up on key questions. The U.S. retained its abysmal favorability rating of 10 points. However, while only 24 percent support the alleged U.S. drone strikes, this is up 11 points; 37 percent think Pakistan should cooperate with the U.S. in combating extremism, also up by nine percent. These numbers grabbed local headlines May 12. Most encouraging, the level of support for the fight against extremism is now de-linked from the popularity of Pakistan's head of state. All during the Musharraf era, these two figures were in sensitive lock-step; now, the war on terror number is up, though President Asif Zardari's popularity remained at an anemic 19 percent. ¶6. (C) Over the past year, IRI has also established a baseline on "messaging" a counterterrorism/counterinsurgency strategy. Strong majorities support numerous configurations that stress fighting "extremists" versus taliban or al-Qaida, build on the Army's popularity, and openly question the terrorists' Islamic credentials. Similarly, when alleged drone attacks are put into a broader message of "assistance" in consultation with the GOP and Army, the Pakistani public ISLAMABAD 00001043 002 OF 003 is more supportive, at 53 percent. Nawaz Big Winner From March's "Long March" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif's star continues to rise, with 55 percent saying he is the best leader to tackle Pakistan's problems, up 24 points; Zardari comes in second at 9 percent. Seventy-one percent want Nawaz as president. He also tops the "likeability" scale; only three personalities break the 50 yard line -- PML-N's Nawaz (75 percent) and Shahbaz (66 percent) Sharif and restored Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry (54 percent). PM Yousuf Gilani and lawyers' leader Aitzaz Ahsan received the highest public support of any members of the ruling PPP. ¶8. (C) Consequently, Nawaz's party would be poised for a landslide if mid-term elections were called. A whopping 62 percent, up 27 points from October 2008, would now vote for the PML-N; the PPP dropped two points to 17 percent. The PML-N bump mainly came from Pakistanis getting off the fence since the June and October polls from last year. Musharraf's PML dropped to one percent. A solid majority would support the PML-N absorbing the PML and leading the right wing; few prefer a "grand coalition" between the PML-N and PPP across the historical political divide. ¶9. (C) Pakistanis support the Army generally and even rationalize the possibility it might still need to take over the government in an emergency (56 percent). However, they are clear on their choice between democratic government or military rule, with 77 percent supporting democracy even if the military could ensure stability and prosperity. It's Still the Economy - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) Pakistanis' main concern remains bread-and-butter issues, literally. Nearly half of respondents listed inflation as the most important issue facing Pakistan, and 22 percent more specified unemployment as the key worry; only 10 percent listed terrorism, and four percent said law and order. Fewer people now, compared to the October 2008 poll, thought Pakistan's economy was worsening, though it was still a hefty 63 percent; 36 percent said they expected next year's economy to be worse, but 29 percent, up 15 points, predicted better times. ¶11. (C) One of the principal purposes for IRI's National Endowment for Democracy (NED) grant is to help Pakistan's feudal parties focus on popular issues and concerns instead of family rivalries. Crossing the basic popularity polls with issue analysis, for instance, IRI was able to show: "What is the one thing the PPP government could do that would convince you to vote for them?" -- "reduce inflation" was Pakistanis' answer. Party Reactions - - - - - - - - ¶12. (C) The PPP sent its Secretary General Senator Jehangir Badar and Senate Majority Leader Senator Nayyer Bokhari to receive the bad news from IRI about the GOP's performance. According to Palarino, Badar acknowledged the ruling PPP had a lot of work to do, but focused on messaging alone, not substantive policies or programs. There was no indication that they would present the poll up the party chain of command. ¶13. (C) PML parliamentarian Marvi Memon was combative and defensive when briefed, said Palarino, on her party's one percent showing. She asked several questions, which may result in policy papers up her own chain of command, but the party evidently decided not to send any inner circle or decision-maker. ¶14. (C) Only the PML-N sent members of Nawaz's inner circle, including party chairman Zafar ul Haq and spokesperson Ahsan Iqbal. Palarino reported, though, that they were likewise mainly passive during (but happy with) the presentation. Interestingly, when their hypothetical electoral landslide was shown, the PML-Ners indicated they would try to sit on their lead. The party would not push for early elections. ISLAMABAD 00001043 003 OF 003 ¶15. (C) Comment: Over the last three years of IRI polls, parties and movements, politicians and personalities, and the Army and Supreme Court have jumped up and dropped down. What has remained consistent throughout is the Pakistani public's focus on economic concerns -- inflation, unemployment, poverty, and electricity/water. Though terrorist attacks and the security crisis grab local and international headlines, the body of these polls' results demonstrate the importance of emphasizing in our policies, programs and public diplomacy the effort the U.S. is making to address the economic bottom-line for regular Pakistanis. End comment. PATTERSON