GENERAL NADEEM ON IDP CRISIS, PLANS AND ASSISTANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001042 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 TAGS: PHUM PREF PREL PGOV PK EAID PTER SUBJECT: GENERAL NADEEM ON IDP CRISIS, PLANS AND ASSISTANCE NEEDS REF: A. A) ISLAMABAD 1030 B) ISLAMABAD 1026 C)ISLAMABAD 1007 ¶B. D) ISLAMABAD 996 E) ISLAMABAD 967 F) ISLAMABAD 940 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a May 14 meeting with the Ambassador, General Nadeem, Pakistan,s newly appointed IDP coordinator, estimated that the GOP will need approximately USD 500 million for up to 1.5 million IDPs through December. Nadeem put the total IDP number at 1.27 million (of which roughly 20 percent are in camps) and expected the influx to peak within a week with substantial returns thereafter, at least to Bajaur, Buner and Lower Dir, which he described as quiet, stabilized and stabilizing, respectively. The Taliban are still in control of Mingora, although Nadeem expected military progress there in seven to ten days. He wants the US to provide small scale, low profile, high impact assistance (fire fighting vehicles, water trucks, a mobile medical clinic, halal MRE meals, large tents with environmental units for hot weather),an FM radio network and radios for IDPS, and support to the UN, ICRC and NGOs (including the funding of four UNHAS or ICRC helicopters). He said that stabilization (except in Mingora and Swat), summer heat, and impending harvest would pull IDPs back to their homes, while excess availability of relief supplies would discourage return. He was eager to put together a solid return package (including good security information) to permit an orderly and safe return. ¶2. (C) The GOP realizes it is critically important to communicate effectively with the IDPs so they do not turn against the government. Nadeem asked for USG help in setting up an FM radio network, providing daily program content (to include news, information on the IDP situation and entertainment),and purchasing radios. We are requesting the release of $1 million in PD funds now held in SCA/PD to implement this project. ¶3. (C) The long-term funding implications of this IDP crisis are significant, particularly if the Army moves into other areas of the FATA. Moreover, we need to move immediately to assess the rehabilitation and reconstruction needs of Swat and surrounding areas. Our ongoing and substantial reconstruction efforts in the earthquake area provide a good model for this. Embassy,s recommended next steps (all of which are already underway in Washington) are in para 13. End summary. ¶4. (U) Lt. General Nadeem met with Ambassador and staff May ¶14. Two days on the job, Nadeem is based in Peshawar and has been to all the camps and met with stakeholders and 11th Corps. He said the Government has brought in two field hospitals, other medical support, 40 tons of rations/day, and water services for the IDPs. The Government was appealing for donations to improve the food basket and to provide specific non-food needs including fans, water coolers, hygiene kits, tarps to shade the tents, sleeping mattresses and mosquito nets. Challenges remain in screening IDPs and alleviating the heat, but coordination between the UN, the federal government and the provincial authorities was much improved. ¶5. (U) Nadeem wants us to provide specific small scale, high impact items and to &strengthen the helping hands8 of the international assistance community already on the ground. He cited a need for fire fighting vehicles, water trucks and a mobile medical clinic, halal MRE meals, and tents with environmental units for hot weather. He stressed that these items should be small, easily mobile, and easily operated by Pakistani personnel. He recommended local procurement where possible. He also needs funding for four UNHAS or ICRC helicopters to provide food drops to those in closed areas, evacuate wounded, etc. White relief helicopters would be preferable in the current complex emergency which he described as entirely different from the 2005 earthquake. Nadeem asked the U.S. to provide crank radios and an FM radio network, to include program content, as it did after the earthquake, to inform the affected populations. ISLAMABAD 00001042 002 OF 003 ¶6. (C) Nadeem was appreciative of USG proposal to use USD 10 million to rehabilitate/rebuild police stations in Dir, Buner, Shangla and/or Swabi. Access to these areas would presage a similar effort in Swat, where nine of the eleven stations have been damaged or destroyed. Nadeem will help expedite approvals so the police can come in after the fighting winds down and take over from the army. ¶7. (U) Nadeem praised the efforts of the UNHCR, ICRC, WFP, and other UN agencies. He expressed appreciation for U.S. assistance. He noted the IDP support provided by the Benazir income support program. ¶8. (C) Nadeem put the current IDP count at 1.27 million, with over 1 million of these remaining outside the camps. Of the over 550,000 old caseload IDPs, he said that most were from Bajaur and ready to return. He described Bajaur as peaceful and said that in Lower Dir, open as of May 12, there was ongoing stabilization, no resistance, and an open road. Buner, he said, was stabilized, and its roads were also open. Entry points for the militants into Dir and Buner and from Buner into Swat had been blocked. The Taliban is now concentrated in three locations in Swat. Peochar, where three commando battalions had been inserted by helo, would be well under control in a few days, and Khwaza Khela had been mostly cleared. Only Mingora remained fully in the hands of the Taliban and that would take time to eradicate. In sum, Bajaur, Buner and Lower Dir were quiet, and Swat would be improving in two to three days. (Note: On May 14 several of USAID/OFDA,s NGO partners reported being unable to gain humanitarian access to Dir and Buner.) Nadeem called the IDP challenge one tenth of that presented by the 2005 earthquake. ¶9. (C) Nadeem anticipated that the IDP influx would peak within seven days and then begin to decrease substantially. He estimated that 50 to 60 percent of Mingora has already evacuated. ¶10. (C) Nadeem outlined the pull factors that would draw people back to their homes: 1) stabilization except in Mingora and Swat; 2) the impending summer heat which will reach 120 degrees in the tents; and 3) the desire of farmers to return to the higher regions of NWFP where wheat and tobacco will be ready for harvest in the next ten days. He noted that overabundant relief supplies would be a disincentive to return. ¶11. (C) Nadeem did not know when return would be possible, but wanted to establish an organized return process with provision of rations, temporary shelter, transportation, information about security, and cash to incentivize return. WFP is willing to provide a return food package. He said the World Bank would undertake a detailed damage assessment of the conflict areas to facilitate reconstruction and rehabilitation. While Swat would remain unsettled, IDPs would be able to move back to the other areas, and the number could be reduced by 50 percent with a good return package. If return is delayed to July, reconstruction will be impeded by the onset of the monsoon. ¶12. (C) Comment: While Nadeem,s assessment of the military situation seems optimistic, he appeared completely on top of his new portfolio. Nadeem requested from the U.S. quick impact relief items and support to the international humanitarian assistance organizations. Essential to the success of Pakistan,s military operations will be the Pakistani people,s confidence in its government,s relief operations and coordination of organized UN operations. ¶13. (C) Next steps: -- Interagency consideration of funding sources. We will have a better picture of funding requirements when the UN appeal is completed but we can expect it to be in the hundreds of millions. For the moment, we can draw on the USAID pipeline funds and on INL funds to rebuild police stations. The supplemental has additional funds for humanitarian relief and IDPs. ISLAMABAD 00001042 003 OF 003 -- Immediate release of $1 million now held by SCA/PD for establishment of a radio network, including program content, to reach all the IDP camps in Malakand to provide news, information and entertainment. (We are purchasing the radios through an existing USAID contract and they will be included in relief items for IDPs.) -- Continued senior engagement with the UN system and with the Secretary General to make sure that a senior OCHA representative is on the ground as soon as possible. It is critically important that this coordinator stay here and not commute to New York. Jean Arnault will be returning next week and needs to remain in Pakistan as well. -- Identification of required additional personnel, particularly for USAID, and possibly also for public affairs. Our USAID mission will need more people as this IDP situation continues, and the mission is consulting with USAID Washington. We will convey specific requests, including additional support for our reconstruction unit, to the Department by May 16. We will need a team to conduct a needs assessment for quick impact employment projects, rehabilitation, and reconstruction as soon as we can have access to these areas. -- USG consideration of Nadeem,s specific requests for mobile clinics, water and fire trucks, halal MRE meals, and tents with environmental units. -- Consideration of funding of helicopters for the UN and for ICRC (which we assume will be included in the appeal). PATTERSON