BHARAT BALLOT 09: UNDERSTANDING ANDHRA PRADESH: THE TURNOUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HYDERABAD 000055 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: UNDERSTANDING ANDHRA PRADESH: THE TURNOUT HYDERABAD 00000055 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. SUMMARY: Voter turnout in the state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) was significantly higher than the national average during the concurrent 2009 national and state elections. Neither issues, nor sops, nor the much-hyped media and youth campaigns seemed to be the driving force behind this. It was women who made the difference. END SUMMARY. -------------- Turnout: Braving the Heat -------------- ¶2. AP voters turned out in droves under a blazing sun to cast their ballot during the first two phases of the concurrent national and state 2009 elections. The official turnout for Phase I was nearly 70 percent and during Phase II it topped 75 percent. The 72 percent average for the state was far above the national average of 57 percent. Speaker of the AP Legislative Assembly K. Suresh Reddy told the Charge d'Affaires (CDA) that `people survived four to five hours in the heat to do their duty,' but this time the average voter only had to wait for 30 minutes. The Speaker highlighted the `success' of the Election Commission's (EC) Phase I and II planning, especially efforts to purge the voting rolls of duplicate voters. ¶3. Political observers noted that the elaborate security arrangements instituted by AP Director General of Police (DGP), A.K. Mohanty were another essential factor promoting the high turnout. There was no significant violence by Naxalite or other groups with intent to disrupt voting in the state. In the run-up to first round of polls vigilant policing seized 437 illegal guns, 777 homemade bombs, 69 hand grenades, and more than 250 million rupees (USD 5 million) in cash. DGP Mohanty's efforts to control the flow of money and liquor prior to the elections were widely seen as being totally unbiased. A media interlocutor opined that some previously disaffected voters saw these efforts to `clean up' the process, and were inspired to cast ballots for the first time. -------------- Issues: From None to Local -------------- ¶4. The Times of India declared, `This is a strange election - it's an all-India election with virtually no national issues. Security or terrorism doesn't seem to be agitating people across the country.' Campaigning in the state on April 6, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi (BJP) declared that Hyderabad is `sitting on a powder keg. Terrorists more dangerous than those in Kashmir live here.' However, voters did not seem to agree. Even the recent Mumbai terror attacks, which reminded many Hyderabad residents of the three major bombings that impacted this city in 2007, didn't create a groundswell of interest in the issue. For Srinivas Reddy, Deputy Editor of the The Hindu daily's Hyderabad edition, the reasons were obvious: urban dwellers grew to accept that `the bigger the city, the more security issues you have;' and terrorism wasn't an issue for AP's rural voters, who are not affected by it and for whom cheap rice, reliable access to water and other basic necessities are the issues of overriding importance. ¶5. In the last election it was the Congress party's promise to provide `free power to farmers' and to dramatically increase irrigation projects throughout the state carried the party to an overwhelming victory. Not surprisingly, in this election cycle, each of the main contestants - the ruling Congress party, the opposition `Grand Alliance' led by the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), and newly formed Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) led by a Telugu film star turned politician - curried favor with the voters by trying to outbid each other with promises of sops. ¶6. Speaker Suresh Reddy (Congress) noted that his party's free health care schemes for the poor combined with massive multi-year irrigation programs had improved living conditions in both the cities and villages for so many voters that Congress would win at the polls. He remarked that Congress wasn't offering more sops but continued good governance and that `governments which do reasonably well usually return to office.' HYDERABAD 00000055 002.2 OF 003 He continued that `Congress' ability to deliver more than they promise' foretells a return to power both in the state and nationally. [NOTE: Speaker Suresh Reddy took `a calculated risk' and lost his bid for fifth consecutive term of office after changing constituencies. END NOTE] ¶7. TDP Leader N. Chandrababu Naidu highlighted the positive response by voters to his party's Cash Transfer Scheme (CTS) for the poor. He noted that previous employment/poverty alleviation schemes were marred by the fact that middlemen would siphon off as much as 80 percent of the allotted funds. This problem would be resolved by paying the funds directly into accounts at various nationalized banks held by a woman in the family, who had access to them through an ATM card. ¶8. PRP leader K. Chiranjeevi launched the party with promises of social justice and an improved society without corruption. However, he quickly adopted the familiar strategy of his rivals for wooing voters. Throughout the campaign he made promises ranging from a guarantee of 5 hours free power each morning and evening to rehabilitation packages for displaced farmers. Most political analysts commented that it was the chance to see the AP's biggest film star and not the programs on offer which was the main reason that thousands turned up at PRP rallies and were quick to add that attendance at rallies does not necessarily turn into votes at the polls. -------------- Selling the Party: Media and New Technology -------------- ¶9. Accusations of media bias and unethical practices were so rampant that on May 14 the Press Council of India called for an investigation into allegations that several newspapers, in particular vernacular dailies, published paid news articles during the elections. Media analysts say this is not surprising as most of AP's major media is visibly split into different camps - either in favor of or against a particular party. ¶10. Longtime TDP supporter and media tycoon Ramoji Rao owns both `Eenadu,' AP's largest circulation Telugu-language newspaper, and `ETV,' the most widely watched Telugu-language news channel. To counter what was widely seen as open campaigning by the media against the Congress in the last election, YSR launched his own Telugu daily `Sakshi' and Telugu TV news channel `Sakshi TV' with his son (and Congress candidate for MP from the `family seat' in Kuddapah) as Chairman and CEO of the group media. Chiranjeevi is part-owner of the popular family channel `MAA TV.' He cancelled the planned launch of the 24-hour Telugu news station `MAA News' just weeks before the first round of polling. The average voter is well aware of these various affiliations and so the media campaigns by each of the outlets were largely ignored by the public. ¶11. Increasingly voters in this state, known as a center of Information Technology, are tuning out traditional media and getting their news via the internet - or to be more specific on their mobile phones. To tap into this burgeoning space campaigns quickly contracted with mobile service providers to inaugurate mass SMS and text message campaigns. At a cost as low as 10 paisa (USD .002) per message, the medium quickly became crowded and many local residents reported receiving as many as two or three SMS ads every day. Complaints about negative campaigning via this medium soon arose and on May 4 the Election Commission decided to prohibit the use of the medium to make unsubstantiated allegations that slander either a party or an individual candidate. Dr. Padmaja Shaw, Head, Department of Communication and Journalism at Osmania University, noted that `campaigns lost a tremendous opportunity by not using SMS properly. The messages quickly became a nuisance - particularly for the educated class' and may actually have depressed turnout. -------------- Youth Stay at Home -------------- ¶12. Approximately 30 percent of potential voters are youth - HYDERABAD 00000055 003.2 OF 003 loosely defined as 18 to 30 years old - and the importance of the youth vote was much talked about in this election cycle. However, in the 2004 national election only 50 percent of urban youth voted, which was 8 percent below the national average. This demographic generally cited corruption and the difficulty with the voter registration process as the principal reasons for their disinterest. In the months prior to the 2009 election only 25 percent were registered to vote. ¶13. To address these issues numerous grassroots campaigns sprang up after the Mumbai attacks to encourage youth to register and vote. Media reports about these campaigns highlighted use of a variety of hi-tech outreach efforts to attract new voters, including SMS campaigns, social networking sites, blogs, and promotional and educational videos on popular sites. However, despite the popularity of YouTube and Orkut (India's Facebook equivalent),surprisingly few groups had official websites or registered their websites with search engines such as Google or Yahoo. Of those groups that did have a web presence, most consisted of only a single page which listed email addresses. Emails sent to these websites requesting information on how to register only rarely received a response and phone numbers went unanswered. Even `Young Tarang,' the youth voter drive initiated by the Election Commission in Hyderabad, had no internet presence and their registration drive lasted a mere six days. ¶14. Interestingly, some political analysts question whether youth involvement in politics really matters. The Center for the Study of Developing Societies completed a major study on the attitudes of Indian youth and concluded that age matters considerably less in determining voting behavior than does caste, locality or gender. The study appears to show that Indian youth generally follow the trends of their socio-economic group, not their age group. -------------- Women Come Out -------------- ¶15. The large scale turnout of women at polling booths, especially during the second phase of polling, accounts for the record number of votes cast in many constituencies, according to many analysts. An April 30 report in The Hindu showed that almost 4 percent more women voted in AP than during the last election cycle. Asked why he thought women turned out in such high numbers, Chiranjeevi cited the large numbers of women in his fan clubs and quickly asserted, `It is me only.' However, all the parties actively courted women voters and there were no indications that they tilted heavily in favor of one of the parties. -------------- The Arithmetic of Future Elections -------------- ¶16. COMMENT: The large voter turnout in the state may portend the emergence of a new vote bank arithmetic that will decide future elections in AP. What that exactly will be is still far from clear, but local politicians will continue to focus on regional to the exclusion of national issues. The parties will primarily use the center and any influence there to finance the large development and social welfare programs they promised to their constituents. END COMMENT. KEUR