BHARAT BALLOT 09: UNDERSTANDING ANDHRA PRADESH: THE MIM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HYDERABAD 000047 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: UNDERSTANDING ANDHRA PRADESH: THE MIM HYDERABAD 00000047 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. SUMMARY: In the first election after the death of its patriarch, Sultan Salahuddin Owaisi, the All India Majlis-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (MIM) faces one of its toughest challenges in years. The Old City section of Hyderabad remains a stronghold of the MIM, but this year, barely seven months after the death of its leader of four decades, MIM finds itself opposed by a respected member of the local Muslim community, while at the same time it must defend its vote with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in support of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative (CNCI). In this test of the strength of old-school family politics the community looks likely to choose history and vote-bank loyalties. END SUMMARY. -------------- Present in Spirit -------------- ¶2. In the aftermath of the death of Sultan Salahuddin Owaisi, the Owaisi family seems to have lost very little stature in the local Muslim community. His two sons inherited the reputation amongst Old City Muslims for delivering on promises of local development and security. The older son, Asaduddin, is still the odds-on favorite to retain his family's hereditary seat in Parliament from the Hyderabad constituency. Meanwhile, the younger son, Akbaruddin, is favored to remain the MIM's leader in the Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly. ¶3. In this Congress stronghold state, MIM survives partially through a tacit agreement with the ruling party. Congress consistently runs weak candidates against the MIM, and in return the five-strong MIM delegation in the state assembly supports the Congress. The MIM continues to emphasize its role as spokesman for India's Muslims in Parliament, where, in the party's view, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) represents the greatest long-term threat to the community. Making no secret of its disdain for the BJP's Hindu-nationalist ideology and with no apparent concern for hypocrisy, the MIM presents itself to its Old City Muslim supporters as a secular antagonist to the BJP. It is a widely held view that this MIM stand against Hindu nationalism is an important factor behind the party's continued strength in this small pocket of Andhra Pradesh. -------------- The Wrath of Owaisi -------------- ¶4. Of the two brothers, Asaduddin faces the stiffer challenge. Zahed Ali Khan, a respected community leader and longtime editor of Siasat, India's most popular Urdu-language newspaper, joined the electoral fray under the banner of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP),the leading opposition party in the state. Bearing strong Muslim credentials, deep roots in the community, and the backing of a powerful coalition, Khan is a credible challenger for Asaduddin's seat in Parliament. ¶5. To understand how seriously the MIM perceived the threat one need look no further than the list of candidates for the seat, two of whom are named Zahed Ali Khan. The homonymous MIM-inspired stand-in belies MIM's public statements that the BJP is its most significant opposition and Khan does not pose a threat. More seriously, MIM supporters instigated skirmishes at Khan's rallies in the city. An alternative interpretation of the MIM's response is that the Owaisis' supporters are simply angry about Khan's attempt to split the Muslim vote in the constituency and that, with no real concerns about their own electoral viability, the MIM acted in a purely retaliatory fashion. Fortunately for the original Khan, voters' reliance on party symbols to identify their candidates should prevent confusion on a scale that would affect the outcome. -------------- HYDERABAD 00000047 002.2 OF 002 The Nuclear Non-Issue -------------- ¶6. The July 2008 confidence vote was for many observers a referendum on CNCI. However, from the perspective of the MIM and the local Muslim community the confidence vote was simple politics. The MIM successfully convinced its partisans that a vote with the United States was a `far lesser evil' than bringing L.K. Advani and the BJP to power. As such, the best efforts of the BJP, the Communist Party of India (CPI),and the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) to brand the MIM as pro-American were in vain. Any anti-American sentiment held by Old City Muslims was overshadowed by concerns about voting for Hindu or secular parties. And local development and security issues, on which the MIM is virtually unassailable, overwhelm both of these issues. The irrelevance of the CNCI vote in the recent election serves as proof of the hold that the MIM has on its followers, who seem convinced that only the MIM can provide them security against communal violence. -------------- The Violence After the Storm -------------- ¶7. Over the past few years, various members of the MIM were involved in a series of incidents, several involving violence, that paint it as a party of rabble-rousers. Most notable was a riot surrounding the visit to Hyderabad of controversial Bangladeshi author Taslima Nasreen. More recently, during the April 17 vote in Hyderabad, Asaduddin was personally involved in an incident alternately described as `stopping vote-rigging' or `attacking voters', depending on the observer's perspective. What is certain is that he was engaged in a physical altercation with supporters of an opposition party. The state Director General of Police, A. K. Mohanty, whose appointment Owaisi initially opposed because of a perceived anti-Muslim bias, filed a case against him. Owaisi subsequently challenged Mohanty to `come out of his uniform and face [me] in an election fight.' At the same time, Akbaruddin Owaisi clashed with opposition supporters in his own constituency. Still more MIM activists attacked a BJP Assembly candidate at another polling station. In response, the BJP candidate claimed he was attempting to stop the distribution of cash by the MIM at that polling station. ¶8. COMMENT: For all the cracks in its armor, the MIM remains entrenched in the Old City. While the attacks and the dummy candidates are seen as signs that the MIM itself perceives a challenge, most poll-watchers give Khan little chance of success against the MIM in the upcoming vote count despite the high profile of his candidacy. The reason for this is primarily MIM's decades of service to the community under deceased patriarch Salahuddin, who is every bit as powerful in spirit as he was in person. Still, as time passes, the younger Owaisis will have to prove themselves as their father did, lest their influence fade with his memory. END COMMENT. KEUR