BHARAT BALLOT 09: ANDHRA PRADESH CONGRESS UNLIKELY TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 HYDERABAD 000040 SENSITIVE SIPDIS AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY BEIJING AMEMBASSY BERLIN AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY TOKYO NSC WASHINGTON DC SECDEF WASHDC HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION GENEVA JOINT STAFF WASHDC US CENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL NCTC WASHINGTON DC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM KDEM IN SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: ANDHRA PRADESH CONGRESS UNLIKELY TO REPRISE 2004 LANDSLIDE REF: CHENNAI 107 B) 2008 CHENNAI 394 HYDERABAD 00000040 001.2 OF 007 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Andhra Pradesh, India's fourth largest state, is in the midst of concurrent state and national elections. The state was a bright spot for Congress in 2004; the party won an absolute majority in the state assembly and a substantial majority of Andhra Pradesh's seats in the Lok Sabha (India's lower house of parliament). But Congress's rival, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP),has formed a "Grand Alliance" by pulling away all but one of Congress's 2004 alliance partners in the state. The presence of a new political party led by a charismatic Telugu film star turns the elections into a three-way fight, making them all the more unpredictable. The implementation of numerous welfare measures, including a popular health insurance program for poor families, has earned the Congress government much goodwill, and forced the TDP to lay out its own populist agenda. Congress still stands a good chance of maintaining power -- albeit with diminished numbers -- in the state assembly in spite of anti-incumbency and having lost its alliance partners. Analysts expect similar results on the Lok Sabha side, with Congress maintaining a majority but losing 5 to 10 of the 31 seats it is defending. END SUMMARY. -------------- Andhra Pradesh Background -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Andhra Pradesh, the largest state in South India, is most well-known for its capital, Hyderabad. The contrasts between Hyderabad and the rest of the state are dramatic. Hyderabad is a glittering information technology hub home to many of the world's most famous companies: Microsoft and Google, among others, have chosen to put down roots there. In addition to IT, Hyderabad is the center of India's growing pharmaceuticals sector. At the same time, the state has some of India's most impoverished, drought-stricken rural districts where thousands of farmers have committed suicide out of despair. Pervasive rural poverty drives people to the shining lights of Hyderabad, making the state both a source and destination for victims of human trafficking. Hyderabad conjures up images of a rich Muslim history, and the city is still home to a substantial Muslim minority which is able to win elections in the old quarter. Despite the capital's Muslim roots, Andhra Pradesh as a whole is South India's most Hindu state. One of Hinduism's most important, and richest, temples is Tirumala (sometimes referred to as the Vatican of Hinduism) in Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh. ¶3. (SBU) The majority of the people of Andhra Pradesh are known as Telugus. Telugu is spoken by approximately 80% of the state's people, with significant minorities of Urdu, Hindi, Tamil, and Kannada speakers also living in the state. The state has a long history of external migration, especially to North America. The Telugu community is the second largest Indian ethnic community in the United States, and one study showed that almost 40% of the Indian software professionals working in the United States are from Andhra Pradesh. Like India's other large states, Andhra Pradesh faces separatist pressure. Telangana -- a historically underdeveloped region composed of HYDERABAD 00000040 002.2 OF 007 the state's northern districts (including Hyderabad) -- is home to a movement for separate statehood. Though they speak Telugu, the people of Telangana have a distinct culture and history. The movement also draws strength from the region's economic backwardness and a prevailing sentiment that its people have been oppressed by more well-off residents of the state's other two regions (Rayalseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh). ¶4. (SBU) Andhra Pradesh's population of over 76 million makes it India's fourth most populous state. It sends 42 representatives to the Lok Sabha, tying it for third with West Bengal in terms of number of Lok Sabha seats (only Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra have more). The first stage of voting took place in the northern part of the state on April 16, with the rest of the state voting in the second stage on April 23. Andhra Pradesh is also one of only three states that is staging a concurrent election for the state legislative assembly, making the political action in Andhra Pradesh especially heated. -------------- Allies abandon Congress for TDP -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The rivalry between the Congress party and the regional Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has long dominated Andhra Pradesh politics; in fact, no other party besides the two has ruled the state since its formation in 1956 (TDP first came in power in 1984 Before that Congress ruled the state). Currently Congress controls the state government, which is headed by the popular incumbent Chief Minister YSR Reddy. In 2004 Congress routed its primary rival, the TDP led by former Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, in the concurrent state and national elections. Congress won 31 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats, the TDP only 5. Congress did so by aligning with the separatist Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS),as well the state's Communist Party of India (CPI) and Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM). These parties have abandoned Congress for the 2009 elections, joining Naidu's TDP in what is known as the "Grand Alliance" (ref A). Congress goes into the elections alone. -------------- New Entrant Creates Three-Way Fight -------------- ¶6. (SBU) After years of speculation, Telugu mega-star Chiranjeevi formed his own political party in 2008. His decision to go it alone has created a three-way fight pitting his party against Congress and the Grand Alliance. Dubbed the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) (Telugu for "People's Rule"),the party seeks to supplant the Congress/TDP dominated political order by putting Chiranjeevi in the Chief Minister's seat. Chiranjeevi's political rallies have attracted massive audiences, with estimated figures reaching as high a 500,000 for one event. But political analysts caution that drawing large crowds in India does not necessarily translate in to winning votes, making the PRP's potential impact a wild card in the analysis of Andhra Pradesh's elections. HYDERABAD 00000040 003.2 OF 007 -------------- --- Popular Chief Minister Has `Pulse of the People' -------------- --- ¶7. (SBU) Chief Minister Reddy came to power in 2004 on the back of a populist backlash against his predecessor Naidu, who was widely seen as overly focused on industrial development to the exclusion of Andhra Pradesh's vast, and struggling, rural economy. In the course of the 2004 campaign Reddy made many promises most notably that farmers would get free power to operate their irrigation pumps. He has pleased rural voters by making good on his 2004 promises (ref B),as well as by instituting welfare programs far beyond what he staked out in his 2004 campaign. ¶8. (SBU) Interlocutors from a government management institute told us that Reddy and the Congress government are very popular because "the programs are really helping people out." One said "YSR (Reddy) has the pulse of the people," and added that he was "not a Congressman" but he had to admit that programs like the government's new health care insurance are actually delivering tangible benefits to poor citizens. The Arogyashree insurance program allows poor people to undergo major medical procedures, such as coronary bypass surgery, at private medical hospitals with the state government picking up the bill. ¶9. (SBU) A visit to one of Hyderabad's slums confirmed the reach of the government welfare programs. The slum, located in an area known as Uppal, consisted of crudely constructed shacks on a vacant lot abutting a main thoroughfare. Several residents told us that had either used Arogyashree to obtain treatment for themselves, or knew of someone who did. One resident said with pride that she had gone to the Apollo Hospital for treatment that was paid by Arogyashree. (NOTE: Apollo Hospitals is India's most prestigious private, for-profit hospital chain. END NOTE) The residents also told us that they had been offered homes under Reddy's Indiramma housing initiative but that they had declined the opportunity due to the fact that the new houses were in a location far from Uppal. ¶10. (SBU) Political observers repeatedly cited Arogyashree, along with Reddy's irrigation and housing programs, as key factors in the upcoming elections. Journalist Lalitha Iyer told post that "Congress has delivered" on the sops, adding that even if only 50% of the money is making it to the people, "they are happy." She said "YSR will promise the world and when he's delivered it, he'll go and promise the people the stars in the sky." The editor of Saakshi, a newspaper established by Reddy's son to combat the perceived pro-TDP bias of Andhra Pradesh's major Telugu language paper, said that "85% of the poor people in Andhra Pradesh have been touched by one of the Chief Minister's sops. He has made it impossible for anyone else to come and promise more." ¶11. (SBU) Naidu's TDP has responded by trying to do just that -- outbid the Congress by promising even more to the voters. Naidu says he will expand on the free power to farmers and health insurance initiated by the Congress government. His HYDERABAD 00000040 004.2 OF 007 campaign platform copies the promise of a free color television to every family in the state that was widely credited with helping bring the DMK party to power in Tamil Nadu in 2006. But Naidu has made the biggest splash with a cash transfer scheme that promises direct payments of $20 - $40 per month to the state's families depending on income level. Naidu has refuted criticism of the proposal by citing the success of conditional cash transfer programs such as Mexico's "Opportunidades" program in reducing poverty. The question remains whether voters trust Naidu, who was disdainful of these sorts of programs when he was Chief Minister, to actually make good on his promise. Iyer told us that people were skeptical at first, but "they are starting to believe" that he will implement the program if he comes to power. Srinivas Reddy, Hyderabad Editor of The Hindu, agreed that the cash transfer proposal may be winning the TDP votes. But he noted no one is examining where the money will come from to pay for the programs. -------------- `Congress can buy this election' -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Indian law limits spending to 2.5 million rupees (approximately USD 50,000) per parliamentary candidates. Our interlocutors all scoffed at the limit, with one telling us it is a "joke." Jayaprakash Narayanan, founder of the reform-oriented Lok Satta party, told us that while his candidates will adhere to the limit, he expects his opponents to exceed it substantially. Narayanan said the other parties will spend 30 to 40 million rupees per candidate (USD 600,000 to 800,000). A leader from the MIM, Congress's last remaining ally in the state, said that most parties in the state exceed the 2.5 million rupee limit on polling day activities alone. ¶13. (SBU) The ruling Congress party's cash advantage over the state's other political parties is a generally asserted, but yet unproven fact. "Congress can buy this election," said a well-connected business leader. He added that "YSR has taken corruption to next level," which means Congress has far more money to spend than its rivals. The MIM leader admitted that Congress has used its time in power to amass "a huge cash advantage." ¶14. (SBU) Political analysts and academics at a lunch discussion about the elections agreed that bribes to voters are common in Andhra Pradesh, which could make the Congress party's financial advantage decisive. The editor of a major English language daily said that "the bribes paid to the voters in the last 48 hours" could decide it. A day before the second phase of polling, a local documentary film producer working with NGOs throughout the state noted that every party dramatically increased their financial outlays in the last 48 hours. His NGO contacts report that the major parties transferred funds directly into bank accounts of the widespread Women's Welfare Collectives (mostly begun during the last Naidu administration), who then distributed from 2000 - 4000 rupees (USD 50 - 100) to member families. HYDERABAD 00000040 005.2 OF 007 -------------- Corruption Doesn't Bother Voters -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Although Congress's cash advantage is generally understood to be the result of corruption, our interlocutors all believed the party would not suffer at the polls on account of it. One voter told us "corruption is like salt in food, you expect it to be there." The business contact said that voters are "accustomed" to corruption, and are satisfied so long as "at least some" of the government largesse trickles down to them. The pro-Congress editor of Saakshi cynically noted that "Naidu started complaining about corruption too early" and now "people aren't paying attention." -------------- Telangana Hurts Congress -------------- ¶16. (SBU) The demand for separate statehood for Andhra Pradesh's historically backwards Telangana region again occupies the minds of the chattering clases. Roles have reversed since ¶2004. The TDP, which used to stand for a "united Andhra Pradesh," now supports separate statehood for Telangana. Congress, which promised to support separate statehood when it allied with the separatist TRS in 2004, is now on the other side of the issue. The consensus view is that by allying with the separatist TRS, Naidu's TDP and the Grand Alliance will perform strongly in Telangana's most pro-separation localities. At the same time, however, many of our interlocutors cautioned that separatist sentiment is not as strong or monolithic in Telangana as the TRS and its supporters claim. They also noted that Congress could make substantial gains in Andhra Pradesh's other two regions -- coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalseema -- in light of TDP's decision to embrace Telangana separatism. ¶17. (SBU) Ajoy Devulapally, the editor of the pro-Telangana newspaper Prajatantra, was the first of many people to tell us that separatist sentiment is "lacking." He noted that young people, in particular, do not care about the statehood question. Others noted that the desire for a separate Telangana varies substantially within the region itself. The Saakshi editor said "only three of the region's eleven districts are 'hardcore' separatist." According to K.C. Suri, a professor of political science at Central University of Hyderabad, separatist sentiment is "widespread" in the Telangana districts closest to Hyderabad city, but weakens in the districts further from Hyderabad. Moreover, he added, even in the most separatist parts of Telangana there remain a substantial percentage of voters -- about 40% -- who are not especially interested in statehood. ¶18. (SBU) Telangana is to home roughly 120 assembly seats; coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalseema elect approximately 170. Telangana elects 17 to the parliament, compared to 25 for coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. Several interlocutors suggested that Congress would make up for a poor performance in the smaller Telangana region with a strong performance in the rest of Andhra Pradesh. Chief Minister Reddy's comments HYDERABAD 00000040 006.2 OF 007 following the first phase of voting on April 16 indicated he was thinking along the same lines. Hours after voting closed in Telangana Reddy told reporters that "if the Grand Alliance is voted to power, we will be treated as outsiders in Hyderabad." With only Rayalseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh left to go to the polls, Reddy clearly meant to appeal non-Telangana voters' anxieties about losing Hyderabad, which is both the state's political capital and economic heart. His appeal was widely seen as a sign that Congress was worried that it performed poorly in the first phase, but some analysts argued that Reddy had planned to mobilize "united Andhra" sentiment all along to counter a weaker Congress performance in Telangana. -------------- -------------- Praja Rajyam Not Quite Ready For Prime Time, But Still A Factor -------------- -------------- ¶19. (SBU) Chiranjeevi's problem, according to our interlocutors, is that he waited too long to start PRP. His charisma and ability to pull a crowd is universally acknowledged: Srinivas Reddy told us "this state is movie-crazy and he is one of the biggest stars." But PRP has not been able to pull together the organizational muscle required to successfully contest Indian elections because he waited until less than a year ago to start the party. PRP's lack of party machinery is evident in many other ways, from a dearth of volunteers to get out the vote to its lack of experienced candidates. ¶20. (SBU) Chiranjeevi appears to have realized the PRP's organizational shortcomings. A senior PRP media advisor noted that the campaign started too late to launch a planned 24-hour Telugu-language news channel. The project was cancelled just 45 days prior to the first phase of polling, when a determination was made that despite Chiranjeevi's star power the channel would attract too few eyeballs in a competitive media environment. Further the time and money used to launch could be spent to greater effect on PRP get out the vote efforts. ¶21. (SBU) Caste makes PRP a factor, despite its poor organizational strength. Although he repeatedly has said PRP is not a caste-based party, it is inextricably linked to the Kapu caste from which he hails. Since the state's formation the Reddy caste has dominated Andhra Pradesh politics through its association with the Congress party. The Reddy's rival caste, the Kammas, found their political voice with the formation of the TDP. The Kapus, who have long felt left out of the state's Reddy/Kamma dominated system, are the single largest caste group in Andhra Pradesh. Professor Suri said that PRP has "consolidated" the Kapu vote. He added that Kapu support provides PRP with a solid base from which to begin, but he believes Chiranjeevi has failed to extend his appeal far enough beyond the Kapus to make PRP a true contender. -------------- -------------- Congress Likely To Return In Hyderabad; Lose Lok Sabha Seats -------------- -------------- HYDERABAD 00000040 007.2 OF 007 ¶22. (SBU) In a meeting weeks before the voting, a very relaxed senior official told us that Chief Minister was "very confident" of his prospects for another term. The Chief Minister's confidence was shared by the vast majority of our interlocutors, all of whom felt that in the state elections Congress would return to power. All agreed that Congress would not be able to replicate its 2004 results, when it won an absolute majority on its own (185 of the state's 294 assembly seats). The best case we heard was Congress winning a slight majority of 150 to 155 seats on its own. The worst case had Congress falling short of the 148 needed for the majority by winning only 110 to 120 seats, but managing to assemble a coalition government by drawing in votes from the PRP or other smaller parties. Only one interlocutor, Lalitha Iyer, left open the possibility of the TDP taking control of the state government. "Don't count Naidu out yet," Iyer warned. With control of the state government at stake, the Lok Sabha elections did not figure much in people's minds. Those analysts who were willing to offer a prediction on the national results said Congress would likely lose 5 to 10 of the 31 Lok Sabha seats it is defending. ¶23. (SBU) COMMENT: Chief Minister Reddy is clearly popular. We frequently heard praise for his far-reaching welfare programs, along with less urgent mentions of widespread corruption in the Congress administration. Congress is in a tough three way contest against the TDP-led Grand Alliance and the new-to-the-scene PRP. The big, unanswerable question concerns the impact Chiranjeevi's PRP will have on the race. Some contacts say PRP is making an impact; others say it is hard to tell because he is hoping to mobilize unpredictable first-time voters. In closely fought first-past-the-post races, Chiranjeevi's performance could be deciding factor in this critical state. END COMMENT. KEUR