TELANGANA - THE STATEHOOD TRAP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HYDERABAD 000137 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: TELANGANA - THE STATEHOOD TRAP REF: REFERENCES: A) NEW DELHI 2472, B) HYDERABAD 121, C) HYDERABAD 124 HYDERABAD 00000137 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The escalating tensions in Andhra Pradesh (AP) over the future status of Telangana led to acts of violence overnight as buses were torched and rail transport halted. Authorities imposed a ban on public meetings until New Year's Day. The December 11 announcement of the center's support for the creation of the new state led to sustained public protests and sporadic violence and a period of backroom political maneuvering and public posturing by leaders of both the pro-statehood and anti-statehood camps followed. On December 23, GOI Home Minister P. Chidambaram made a second statement declaring that the situation had `altered' and needed further review. Proponents of statehood declared this a betrayal and called for 48-hour `bandh' (strike) throughout the region. END SUMMARY. Another 48-Hour Bandh Disrupts Andhra Pradesh -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Starting on the evening of December 23, demonstrations occurred in various areas of Hyderabad and throughout Telangana. The regional transportation system was again targeted by protests disrupting bus and rail lines. While media reports of the ensuing violence indicate that as many as 30 buses were burnt and government property was vandalized, the damage to private property was minimal. To counter the expected disturbances, local law enforcement doubled the police presence in the city to 18,000 personnel and deployed the paramilitary Rapid Action Forces to sensitive areas throughout Telangana. The state also issued a ban on all gatherings of more than four people until January 1, 2010. Against this background, the local police provided international hi-tech companies with assurances that any disturbances around Osmania University - on the other side of the city - would not adversely impact their ability to continue operations or the movement of people to and from their place of employment. Another Violent Reaction to the Home Minister -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On December 23 GOI Home Minister Chidambaram made a statement on Telangana statehood (his second) which noted that the `situation in Andhra has altered' and asserted the `need to hold wide-ranging consultations with all political parties in the state.' This statement prompted Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) leader K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR),whose hunger strike provided the initial spark for the current crisis, to hold a press conference later that day characterizing the Home Minister's latest statement as a `betrayal of the Telangana cause' since `no time-frame was fixed for the wide-ranging consultations.' KCR then went on to threaten major civil unrest if the Center backed down on its pledge and called for a 48-hour `bandh' starting December 24 in conjunction with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and other parties espousing statehood. [NOTE: That the press conference was held in the residence of Jana Reddy, former AP Home Minister under Congress Chief Minister YSR Reddy, highlights the internal divisions in the state party on this issue. END NOTE] Meanwhile, fourteen Congress MPs from the Telangana region huddled in New Delhi, threatening to resign. Chidambaram's First Statement -------------- ¶4. (U) Faced with escalating protests and a prominent politician on an indefinite hunger strike, Chidambaram made a `midnight' announcement on December 11 that the process of carving the Telangana region out of AP to form a separate state (reftel A) would start. This was met first by sporadic civil unrest (reftel B) and subsequently by a wave of Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) resigning en masse from the State Assembly (reftel C). On December 15 Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other senior Congress party leaders called for calm and promised consultations and a `go slow' approach. This reduced HYDERABAD 00000137 002.2 OF 003 tension in the state's other regions - Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema - as protests wound down to watch and wait. On December 14, the AP Speaker of the House adjourned the state legislature `sine die' and effectively postponed the need to decide whether to accept the tendered resignations indefinitely. Calm in the Eye of the Storm -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Over the ensuing week the political maneuvering continued unabated, though fairly calmly. Congress MLAs from both `Pro-Telangana' (statehood) and `United Andhra' (anti-statehood) camps converged on New Delhi to lobby the senior Congress leadership. Both sides heard coordinated statements that a decision would be taken only after consensus was reached, but neither group appeared open to conciliatory action. Speculation regarding the future status of Hyderabad seemed ever present as politicians from all three of the state's regions staked a claim to AP's capital city and commercial center. It quickly became the central point of contention and KCR declared on December 21 that `If anyone says a word that Hyderabad is not part of Telangana, we will cut out their tongues.' ¶6. (SBU) AP regional opposition parties also faced splits in their ranks and quickly backtracked from their earlier support of a separate state for Telangana. Even as he criticized the Congress leadership for making a hasty decision without consulting the people of the state, Telugu Desam Party leader N. Chandrababu Naidu cautiously adopted a position mirroring the Congress position. Praja Rajyam Party leader K. Chiranjeevi made a more decisive break with his party's election stance and openly declared his opposition to dividing the state. The famous actor then announced that he also would tender his resignation to the State Assembly. ¶7. (SBU) As the backroom maneuvering continued, the Congress MP from Vijayawada Rajagopal Lagadapati submitted his resignation to the Lok Sabha Speaker. He then sought to replicate KCR's success and declared his own indefinite fast in support of a unified state. Like KCR, Rajagopal was taken into police custody outside of Hyderabad and transported to his home district. On December 20, Mr. Rajagopal escaped from the Government Hospital in Vijayawada only to resurface the next day at the Nizam Institute of Sciences (NIMS) in Hyderabad - the same place KCR stayed during his fasting. Tensions began to rise as Pro-Telangana supporters rallied to protest the presence in Hyderabad of a prominent proponent of a unified state. How to Avoid Commitment and Alienate Supporters -------------- -- ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Home Minister Chidambaram's December 23 statement went either too far or not far enough, depending upon the audience. Many local observers took it to mean that the Congress leadership has decided not to decide and instead has put the issue on a backburner. With Telangana's prospects for separate statehood unresolved, the simmering unrest is likely to continue. Meanwhile the perception grows that the Congress leadership is unable to unify and control its members, thus providing ammunition to rival parties throughout the state and the country and also to factions within the party. Still, a quick decision by Congress to end this dance in the current environment would only precipitate action by whichever of the two camps feels aggrieved by the outcome. ¶9. (SBU) Congress has painted itself into a corner. The party would like nothing better than a return to the dominant position they enjoyed under recently deceased AP Chief Minister YSR Reddy. However, with no easy way to put the statehood genie back in the bottle, the leadership will play for time and hope that people tire of the disruptions to their daily lives before HYDERABAD 00000137 003.2 OF 003 unequivocal movement towards statehood is required - a risky strategy given the escalating rhetoric, protests, and violence of the last few weeks. END COMMENT. LEONI