TELANGANA - THE REACTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HYDERABAD 000124 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN SUBJECT: TELANGANA - THE REACTION REF: A) NEW DELHI 2472, B) HYDERABAD 121, C) HYDERABAD 89 HYDERABAD 00000124 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. SUMMARY: Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram's announcement on Telangana statehood resulted in a revolt in the Andhra Pradesh (AP) state legislature, with an en masse "resignation" of state legislators. The resignations cut across party lines as political parties backtracked from established positions to appease party members. The GOI's action sparked anti-statehood civil unrest in the other two regions of AP. So far American businesses are unfazed, even as both a political solution and the future status of the capital Hyderabad remain uncertain. END SUMMARY. Headed Towards Resolution Or Dissolution? -------------- ¶2. (U) Media reports on December 11 indicate that an additional 60 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) tendered their resignations in protest of the GOI's December 9 "midnight" announcement on initiating the process of forming a Telangana state. Including the 70 MLAs who took the same step yesterday (REF A),this brings the total resignations to 130 of the 294 members in the state assembly. ¶3. (SBU) The so-called resignations include 76 out of 156 the ruling Congress party's MLAs, 40 of 92 Telugu Desam Party (TDP) MLAs, and 14 of 18 from the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP). None of those who resigned are among the 119 MLAs who represent constituencies in the Telangana region. Principal Secretary (Political) of the AP state government R.M. Gonela told PolOff that the primary reason cited by resigning MLAs was that New Delhi's decision "seemed quick and arbitrary" and was taken "without consultation." ¶4. (U) To date none of the resignations are official as they must be accepted by the Speaker of the House to become effective. Local media reported that the Speaker will decide on the resignations only after consulting with the Advocate General and meeting individually with each MLA. News reports also indicate that the Congress leadership in New Delhi has started to meet with disaffected party members to discuss ways to resolve this impasse. No decisions can be made until the state assembly reconvenes on December 14. ¶5. (U) In the midst of this flurry of resignations, AP Chief Minister (CM) K. Rosaiah sought to allay legislators' concerns by reminding them that a resolution on Telangana statehood must receive "the support of a majority" of the state assembly. If the resignations are accepted the state assembly would be left with only 164 sitting MLAs (Congress - 87, TDP - 52, PRP - 4, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) - 10, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) - 7, Communist Party of India (CPI) - 4, Communist Party of India (Marxist) - 1, Bharatiya Janata Party - 2, Lok Satta Party - 1, and 3 Independents). To achieve a majority of votes the Congress would need to receive support from a significant number of MLAs from TDP, its local rival. TDP Bucks the Trend -------------- ¶6. (U) TDP Leader N. Chandrababu Naidu stepped back from his promise to back Telangana statehood only a day after stating that his party would not oppose a resolution. He was seemingly stunned by the mass resignation of TDP MLAs from Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra - the heartland of the party's vote bank and a major source of the party's financial support. Needing to appease party members from these two regions, Naidu quickly charged Congress leader Sonia Gandhi of acting with "unnecessary and undue haste" and denounced the "unilateral" decision on Telangana. HYDERABAD 00000124 002.2 OF 004 Congress/TRS Part Deux -------------- ¶7. (U) To counter the opposition's allegation that Congress was forced into hurrying a rash decision, Indian Law Minister Veerappa Moily - who is also All India Congress Committee General Secretary in-charge of Andhra Pradesh - stalled, telling media that "Congress takes the right decision at the right time." Some commentators observed that Moily's statement is an indication of Congress' intention to push the issue to the backburner now that the immediate crisis has been diffused. This perception was first bolstered by CM Rosaiah's statement on "the need for consensus" over what is expected to be a contentious issue and then solidified by Finance Minister (FM) Pranab Mukherjee's statement that "any forward movement on the issue is contingent upon a pro-Telangana resolution [being] adopted by the AP assembly by consensus. No assembly resolution - no Telangana." [COMMENT: On December 10 every media outlet in the state prominently reported that a state resolution is not a required step on the path to statehood, which can only be attained through an act of Parliament. END COMMENT] ¶8. (U) Recovering from his fast, TRS leader K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) declined to speak to the press. However, his party made clear its demand that the GOI quickly draft a bill on Telangana statehood for Parliamentary consideration in New Delhi. The TRS is determined to quickly capitalize on its recent victory and not be put off as it was after the 2004 election. At that time the Congress sealed a winning election alliance with the TRS by promising to constitute a 2nd States Reorganization Commission as part of the United Progressive Alliance's (UPA) Common Minimum Program. The promise was kept and a committee was organized - but it never met. KCR remained a GOI Minister for two years before he resigned from the cabinet, alleging Congress had reneged on its promise. KCR: Leading the Way or Riding a Wave? -------------- ¶9. (SBU) While KCR is credited with reviving the Telangana movement, many consider him a political survivor rather than a standard bearer for the Telangana cause. His indefinite hunger strike has been characterized as the last ditch effort of a faltering politician whose party, marginalized in the last state-wide election six months ago, did not even field candidates in the recent Hyderabad municipal elections due to lack of support. Lalitha Iyer of "The Week" magazine told PolOff that KCR receives the focus of the media because "there is no one else" to report on. She also emphasized that though the student groups were the driving force behind the protests, there is no recognizable student leader in the region due to the ban on student elections at all AP state universities and colleges. Raising the Specter of Naxal Inroads -------------- ¶10. (U) Media reports suggest that state and police officials believed that Naxalite elements were using the pro-Telangana student movement to move from rural AP to urban pockets in order to instigate violence. Naxalite groups have consistently supported the demand for a separate Telangana state, but were at odds with the TRS which they accuse of monopolizing the movement to create a "feudal" state. AP Congress Committee (APCC) President D. Srinivas told NDTV on December 3 that "When there is a movement and activities like these happen, infiltration will take place." ¶11. (U) In the days immediately preceding the planned march on the state assembly building (REF B),the "Financial Express" quoted an anonymous police source that the students were being directed "every hour on what to do at every turn. There is a HYDERABAD 00000124 003.2 OF 004 suspicion that some of the student leaders are influenced by Left ideology and the Naxalites and they are directing the students to violent behavior." The next day State Police spokesperson Inspector General of Police (Vigilance) A.R. Anuradha said, "We have received intelligence reports that the movement has gone out of the students' hands and that Maoists and other professional agitators are moving in. Given the situation we did not wish to take any chance with law and order problem." To bolster local Hyderabad's police force the state government called in an additional 23,000 police officers from Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, leaving these regions vulnerable to civil unrest. Universities in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema Erupt -------------- -------------- ¶12. (U) The successful precedent set by the pro-Telangana student protesters prompted students at Andhra University (Vishakhapatnam) and other universities throughout Coastal Andhra to stage "anti-bifurcation" protests on December 10. Coastal Andhra students closed schools, blocked regional transportation links, and burnt effigies of KCR to voice their opposition to Telangana statehood. In Rayalaseema the protesters took to the streets to demand the creation of a "Greater Rayalaseema" state that would include two neighboring Coastal Andhra districts. ¶13. (U) A key issue for many of these students is guaranteed access to the opportunities represented by the vibrant job market in Hyderabad's Information Technology (IT), biotechnology, and pharmaceutical industries. With almost 1000 MBA and MCA colleges and over 500 engineering colleges in the state, AP produces more engineers than any other state in India. The students fear that if the state is split, those coming from other regions in search of jobs will be unwelcome in a Telangana-controlled Hyderabad. Whither Hyderabad? -------------- ¶14. (U) The uncertainty surrounding the fate of Hyderabad, AP's capital, was reinforced as a central point of contention. On December 11 Indian Home Secretary G.K. Pillai caused an uproar when he told journalists that the process of forming a separate Telangana state had already commenced and Hyderabad would be the capital of the state. He retracted the statement only a few hours later. Supporters of a Telangana state continued to reiterate their belief that the city is the heart of the region, even as MLAs from Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema staked their claim to the hi-tech hub saying residents of both regions had "invested a large amount of money in Hyderabad and the state capital belongs to the entire state." Both groups were opposed by a group of eleven Congress municipal legislators representing settlers from outside of Telangana who demanded Union Territory status for the city in the event that the AP carved into different states. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, which represents much of the 40 percent of Hyderabad's population that is Muslim, has adopted a "watch-and-wait" approach. Although in principle the party favors smaller states, it demands that minority groups be consulted and given assurances on safety and security before announcing the party's position on Telangana statehood. International Business Reacts -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Despite the political turmoil, international businesses located in Hyderabad seem scarcely fazed by recent developments. Hari Kumar, Managing Director of Deloitte U.S. in India said that the Congress decision "will have no effect at all" on business and that the company did not foresee "any HYDERABAD 00000124 004.2 OF 004 change in its commitments to current or future investment decisions." He observed that a new state would only impact business if there was a change to the legal environment. [NOTE: Hari Kumar informed PolOff that along with the heads of other international firms, he was invited to participate in a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and FM Mukherjee on December 15 to discuss perceptions of India as a destination for future IT investment. END NOTE] ¶16. (SBU) Srinivas R. Peddi, head of IBM in Hyderabad, said "Frankly speaking there was next to no impact" on business except that some employees needed to telecommute due to transportation difficulties. However, he commented that there was the potential for a negative image of Hyderabad to emerge if political instability resulted in more violence and forced an extension of the U.S. Travel Alert issued on December 9. ¶17. (U) Som Mittal, President of the National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM),the premier Indian association of IT-BPO companies in India, told the press, "We see no negative impact on IT companies in the long run. In the short term, there will be concerns on ongoing projects like the ring road which is being built, or the enhancement of e-governance." Changing Players Before The Final Act -------------- ¶18. (SBU) COMMENT: Given the financial difficulties of the state, then-AP State Finance Minister and senior AP Congress leader K. Rosaiah seemed a logical "caretaker CM" after the death of YSR Reddy (REF C). This was especially so since the Congress leadership needed a "neutral candidate" to stave off a succession battle between the supporters of YSR's son Jagan Mohan Reddy and Telangana Congress leaders sidelined by YSR such as APCC President D. Srinivas and Member of Parliament Hanumantha Rao. However, this compromise left the new CM on shaky ground. In the initial weeks of his tenure, Rosaiah proved unable to quell party infighting. Following a quick succession of crises, he is perceived as beleaguered and weak - a pale shadow of YSR, who the Congress leadership could not afford to ignore. Now the CM's control of the state legislature is being questioned due to his inability to stem the tide of resignations, even by his own party members. ¶19. (SBU) The national Congress leadership has been battered by criticism for their handling of the Telangana decision, which seemed to take not only rival parties by surprise, but also CM Rosaiah and other local Congress leaders. While the Congress Party may have temporarily lost the initiative in AP, it is still in power both at the state level and in New Delhi. This gives it the capacity to shape events in AP and should provide the leadership with the flexibility and the time necessary to reunify and strengthen the local party - or a least find someone to take the fall. END COMMENT. WURR