HONG KONG DEMOCRATS DRAW BATTLE LINES ON UNIVERSAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000053 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM HK SUBJECT: HONG KONG DEMOCRATS DRAW BATTLE LINES ON UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE Classified By: Consul General Joe Donovan for reasons 1.4. (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On January 7, Hong Kong's pan-democrats, led by Legal functional constituency (FC) legislator Margaret Ng (Civic Party),moved a resolution calling on the government to state for the record it intends to abolish the FCs as part of Hong Kong's democratic reforms. This move follows the pan-democrats' recently-reaffirmed commitment to push for direct election for the Chief Executive (CE) and the entire Legislative Council (LegCo) in 2012, although this has been ruled out by the National People's Congress Standing Committee's (NPC/SC) 2007 decision. The resolution failed, and the government remains steadfast in its position that it will consider only mechanisms for the 2012 CE and LegCo elections, leaving the arrangements for subsequent elections to the next administration. End summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: The Civic Party went into this vote knowing it would lose, just as mainstream pan-democrats understand they are unlikely to compel Beijing to reconsider its decision. For this action to have been truly politically significant, the pan-democrats would have needed to win over some if not all of the nascent political center, particularly the Liberal Party and independent geographic constituency (GC) reps like Regina Ip and Priscilla Leung. Going forward, the pan-democrats must maintain a fine three-way balance. First, they must show their base (and its radical wing in the League of Social Democrats) they have not surrendered on 2012 without a fight. Second, they need to re-invigorate public interest in this issue to maximize their bargaining leverage when parties return to the table to discuss reforms for 2012. Third, they must ensure the public does not come to see them as the holdouts against reform, even if incremental. End comment. -------------- Margaret Ng's Windmill -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On January 7, the pan-democrats' most prominent functional constituency (FC) legislator, Legal FC rep Margaret Ng, moved a resolution calling on the Hong Kong government to state clearly its intention to abolish the FCs and establish direct elections for both the Chief Executive (CE) and the entire Legislative Council (LegCo) by universal suffrage. The resolution did not demand either step be taken in 2012. As a LegCo-initiated resolution, the text needed to pass the "split-voting system" -- majority support from both the 30 directly-elected geographic constituency seats (of which the democrats hold 23) and the 30 FC seats (of which the democrats hold only four). The bill's failure was thus all but preordained. ¶4. (SBU) The text cites Article 25 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) as the standard for universal suffrage. Clause (b) of the ICCPR states each citizen has the right "to vote and be elected at genuine periodic elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage." This standard is a particularly contentious "line in the sand" between the pan-democrats and those who believe some form of FCs could be compatible with universal suffrage. The United Kingdom declared an exception to this article when it accepted the ICCPR for Hong Kong because of the lack of direct elections in the then-colony. The Hong Kong government's position (and Beijing's) is that this exception still holds, thus not ruling out some type of FC in LegCo's final form. The pan-democrats argue it does not, given that the Basic Law explicitly aspires to elections for the CE and LegCo by universal suffrage. The United Nations (UN) concurs with the pan-democrats, stating in 1995 that, once LegCo became an elected body (rather than one appointed by the governor),its elections must conform to Article 25. The UN renewed its call for Hong Kong to establish elections by universal suffrage most recently in its 2006 Concluding Remarks on Hong Kong's report of ICCPR compliance. ¶5. (C) Civic Party Secretary General Professor Kenneth Chan admitted to us before the vote that it would likely fail. The pan-democrats hoped to lay down a marker on the issue, he explained, and to force members of LegCo to take a clear position on the future of the FCs. The press has also speculated recently that the economic crisis might lead the government to delay the new round of consultations on democratic reform promised for the first half of 2009, a notion the pan-democrats want to nip in the bud. In addition, the pan-democrats see this action as the first in a series meant to mobilize the public and ensure a high turnout for the annual July 1 march for democracy. ¶6. (C) The lead-up to the vote was a 20-hour, 12-minute HONG KONG 00000053 002 OF 002 (20:12) sit-in by the Civic Party in front of LegCo, with volunteers passing the time by trying to fold 2012 origami cranes, cranes being a symbol of hope. After the vote, the pan-democrats symbolically "freed" the cranes from a cage in which they had been collected, in the process getting a picture in the South China Morning Post. Coverage of the sit-in otherwise seemed thin to not existent -- our visits in the early evening of January 6 and the morning of the 7th found not even casual observers stopping to look at the Civic Party's tent. The sit-in site was surrounded by temporary police fencing, presumably against the crowds that never came, but also creating an image of walling the Civics in. ¶7. (C) Editorially, the pan-democrats were supported by pro-democracy Apple Daily (which often places its pages at the service of the Civic Party) and respected South China Morning Post Editor-at-Large Chris Yeung. Apple opined that the British saw the FCs as a transitional measure when they established them in the 1980s. Since the Basic Law is unambiguous that Hong Kong's constitutional destination is elections by universal suffrage, Apple argues it is the government's constitutional duty to abolish the functional constituencies as soon as possible. Yeung's more thoughtful piece argued that, unless the government takes a clear position on the eventual elimination of the functional constituencies, the deadlock between the pro-establishment and pan-democratic camps cannot be broken. Retired Chief Secretary and former legislator Anson Chan also came out in favor of the resolution, citing the UN findings noted above. -------------- The Establishment Responds -------------- ¶8. (C) In a public statement January 5, and on the floor of LegCo yesterday, the government reiterated its consistent position that the current administration would only consider reforms for the 2012 elections, leaving the arrangements for the 2016 and 2020 LegCo elections and 2017 CE elections to their successors. Speaking for the government, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs (CMAB) Stephen Lam argued, "going down this path may make it difficult to advance constitutional reform in Hong Kong." Real Estate and Construction FC rep Abraham Shek (aka Abraham Razack) pushed an amendment to Ng's text which would have watered the statement down to a general commitment to work towards elections by universal suffrage without specific reference to eliminating the FCs. Interestingly, while Shek's amendment chose "in the first half of 2009" over Ng's "early this year", he nevertheless intended to hold the government to its stated timetable for the next round of consultations. ¶9. (C) In the end, the voting was party-line. Ng lost three votes on the GC side because League of Social Democrats legislators Raymond "Mad Dog" Wong, Leung "Long Hair" Kwok-hung and Albert Chan got themselves ejected for disrupting CMAB Secretary Lam's remarks, and could only muster the four pan-democratic votes on the FC side. All these votes in turn went against Shek. The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB)/Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) bloc went solidly against Ng and in favor of Shek, although LegCo president and former DAB leader Jasper Tsang followed traditional practice by merely voting "present". Regina Ip, Priscilla Leung and all the FC independents opposed Ng, although Tourism FC rep Paul Tse broke with the establishment to oppose Shek, while Financial Services FC rep Chim Pui-chung abstained. The Liberal Party, now repositioning itself as an independent centrist party following the loss of half its LegCo delegation and its break with the pro-government bloc, chose to abstain on both Ng's resolution and Shek's amendment. DONOVAN