MACAU CHIEF EXECUTIVE: THREE NON-CANDIDATES IN A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000499 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MC SUBJECT: MACAU CHIEF EXECUTIVE: THREE NON-CANDIDATES IN A NON-ELECTION REF: HONG KONG 92 Classified By: Consul General Joe Donovan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: In the end, Beijing will choose the next Chief Executive (CE) of Macau, due to take office December 20 this year at the end of Edmund Ho's second term. The only question is which of the three distinct options it prefers. Offering continuity, connections, social standing and a certain swagger, Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture Fernando Chui Sai-on was until recently the favorite, and reportedly has Edmund Ho's support. However, the prosecution of former Secretary for Transportation Ao Man-long on corruption charges reportedly put CE Ho out of favor in Beijing, and massive cost overruns from Chui's management of the East Asian games have left a cloud over his candidacy. The more staid Secretary for Economy and Finance Francis Tam Pak-yuen's technocratic ability and corruption-free record have won widespread acknowledgment that he could do the job, but only tepid support. While the Ao Man-long case put Chui's candidacy on the rocks, it propelled Macau-born, Mainland-trained Prosecutor General Ho Chio-meng into a dark horse candidacy for the CE-ship that some observers believe is gaining ground. None of these men is of the same cut or polish as Edmund Ho, but our contacts suggest what Beijing wants right now is a capable administrator with clean hands and an obedient demeanor. End summary and comment. -------------- The Selection Process -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Chief Executive (CE) Edmund Ho Hau-wah's second and final term will end December 20. Macau took the first step toward replacing him February 2, when CE Ho appointed the five-member Electoral Affairs Committee for the Election of the Chief Executive. This body will oversee the two remaining steps in the process: the election of the 300-person committee that will elect the Chief Executive and then the actual CE election. The 300-person Election Committee will be elected by various registered Macau social organizations, broken down into four broad sectors. 100 committee members will come from industry, commerce and finance; 80 from culture, education and professions; 80 from labor, social services, religious and other groups; and the final 40 will be comprised of slightly more than half of the Legislative Assembly and representatives from Macau's delegations to the National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. Registration of candidates and groups eligible to participate in this process began March 3 and concluded March 17, with the election of the committee scheduled for April 26. Each of the 300 members of the committee has one nominating vote, and candidates for the CE election require 50 nominations. Sometime between June 28 and October 20 (date still to be determined),the committee will vote from among the nominees to select the new CE. Beijing will review and approve or reject the winner shortly thereafter, and the new CE will take office on December 20. ¶3. (C) In reality, most observers expect that Beijing will have made its preference known in advance, making the election a formality. Our current expectation is that, while a second candidate may be nominated for form's sake, an upset of any kind is a remote possibility. Although several people have been tipped as contenders for the post, none is actively campaigning. Since Beijing has not yet indicated its preference (reftel),none of the candidates wants to be seen as running contrary to Beijing's wishes. Unlike Edmund Ho, who for years prior to Macau's 1999 reversion to the PRC stood out as the clear choice for CE, the next leader will be chosen from a field of distinctly lesser lights. Three of these non-candidates are seen as the front-runners at this point (since reftel, businessman and Executive Councilor Ho Iat-seng has publicly removed himself from consideration). With Edmund Ho seen as having become too big for his britches to suit Beijing, both AmCham Macau Chairman Paul Tse (strictly protect throughout) and sometime-democratic legislator Jose Pereira Coutinho told us March 12 that one of Beijing's top criteria will be obedience. Coutinho also expects an end to the one-man rule of the Edmund Ho era, with a concomitant rise in the importance of the policy secretaries. -------------- Fernando Chui: Old Macau, Recent Scandal -------------- ¶4. (C) Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture Fernando Chui HONG KONG 00000499 002 OF 002 comes from a "patriotic" Macau family as established and prominent as Edmund Ho's, with a brother and a cousin also serving in the Legislative Assembly. Enjoying extensive contacts throughout Macau society and (reportedly) Edmund Ho's endorsement, Chui would have been the clear favorite. However, the corruption conviction of former Transportation Secretary Ao Man-long dealt what our contacts and Macau observers feel was a near-mortal blow to Edmund Ho's credibility in Beijing, tainting his protege as a result. In addition, Chui faced tough questions related to massive cost overruns and use of illegal labor in the construction of the East Asian Games stadium in 2005. That said, no one is counting Chui out yet. AmCham's Tse told the Consul General that Chui lunches with senior officers working for fellow non-candidate Economy and Finance Secretary Francis Tam to flaunt his broad connections. Tse also described Beijing as divided in its view, with the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, China's leading policy body on Macau, supporting Chui, while others reject him. Coutinho told us the election of Chui (to whom he disparagingly referred as "the fat guy") would be a continuation of the Ho administration's corruption and rule by Macau's elite, rather than by a leader with popular support. Although he never mentioned running for CE, Chui projected a relaxed confidence in a meeting with the Consul General March 12, perhaps suggesting he still likes his chances. -------------- Francis Tam: This Charmless Man -------------- ¶5. (C) For someone widely recognized for his ability and regarded as generally free of corruption, Secretary for Economy and Finance Francis Tam seems to have few friends. That said, he remains the odds-on favorite for those who think Beijing will choose ability (and reliability) over connections. AmCham's Tse judges that Tam knows more about the economy and the gaming industry than the other candidates combined, but lacks popular support, with CE Ho reported to have asked him to bow out of the CE race. Coutinho rates Tam as capable and obedient, but argues he has not been in the loop for major decisions. For example, Coutinho claims that even fifteen minutes before the results of Macau's expanded gaming license tender were announced in 2002, Tam (under whose portfolio gaming falls) did not know the winners. While he did not address his own prospects, Tam alluded to recent corruption scandals, and told the Consul General March 12 that "people want to see things will be changing for the better in some sectors." That said, while Tam gave us the impression that he felt he could implement those changes, he also seemed almost resigned to not having the chance. -------------- The Other Ho: Macau's New Sheriff -------------- ¶6. (C) For those who see Beijing reaching for a new broom to sweep Macau's corruption-tainted government clean, Prosecutor General Ho Chio-meng has become the man to watch. Following Ho's successful prosecution of Ao Man-long in perhaps the biggest corruption case in Macau's history, a groundswell of support, which includes legislator Coutinho, began propelling Ho into consideration as a CE candidate. At this point, Coutinho feels Ho is no longer a dark horse candidate, although when pressed, he conceded that Tam stood a good chance of edging Ho out. AmCham's Tse still sees Ho as a long shot, but concurs his star has risen. However, Tse reports rumors are now circulating that Ho is not really a Macau person, and even that he was planted by Beijing. (Note: Though born in Macau, Ho grew up and was educated in the Mainland, receiving his initial law degree there and working as a judge in Guangdong's High Court before returning to Macau in 1990. He went on to earn a Doctor of Laws degree from Beijing University in 2002.) If not chosen as CE, Coutinho suggested Ho might serve as Secretary for Administration and Justice under Tam. DONOVAN