MACAU OFFICIALS NOT WORRIED BY SLOWING ECONOMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 000331 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM AND EEB/IFD, TREASURY FOR OASIA AND OTFI E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2019 TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL MC HK CH EINV SUBJECT: MACAU OFFICIALS NOT WORRIED BY SLOWING ECONOMY REF: A. HONG KONG 92 ¶B. HONG KONG 164 Classified By: Consul General Joe Donovan, Reason 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary: Macau's economy shrank in the last three months of 2008 as casino receipts fell for the first time since 2002. Despite poor prospects for early 2009, Macau's massive official reserves will allow the government to increase spending and keep Macau's official unemployment rate around the current three percent. Casino revenues are being squeezed by the general economic slowdown, not visa restrictions, said Macau economists and bankers. Most banks in Macau are in good shape, having avoided most exposure to complex investment products, and the small size of Macau's market makes it easy to determine customer credit-worthiness. With Macau's export industries all but gone, the government is eager to turn Macau into an entertainment and service hub. Mainland Chinese investors have focused on speculative property purchases; job-creating investments in entertainment and services tend to come from foreign or Hong Kong investors. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: Macau's economy is likely to contract in 2009 as high-rollers, who account for 70 percent of Macau's gaming revenue, are unwilling or unable to risk their cash at the tables. Our non-gaming interlocutors, both in the public and private sectors, seemed sanguine, even relieved. Macau's economy has boomed since the gaming market was liberalized in 2002, with 2007 growth reaching 27 percent and tourist arrivals increasing from eight million in 2002 to 30 million in 2008. The increasing numbers of tourists and foreign workers have strained Macau's infrastructure and government capacity. The Central Government has been urging Macau to diversify its economy away from gaming, but PRC Vice President Xi Jinping's January visit to Macau highlighted the lack of productive Mainland Chinese investment in Macau. End Comment. ============================================= Macau's Economy Slows as Gaming Revenues Fall ============================================= ¶3. (SBU) Macau's economy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2008 as gaming receipts fell from the previous quarter for the first time since Macau,s gaming market was opened to foreign investment in 2002. Although official statistics have not yet been released, Financial Services Bureau Director Orieta Lau said negative fourth quarter growth lowered Macau,s 2008 economic growth rate to 12 percent. Gross gaming revenue fell seven percent in the fourth quarter to 24.38 billion MOP (US$ 3 billion). January's gross revenues were just 7.2 billion MOP (US$ 900 million) despite the normally busy Lunar New Year period. ¶4. (C) Macau Monetary Authority (known by its Portuguese acronym "AMCM") Chief Economist Benjamin Chan noted that first quarter economic activity in Macau is expected to fall further and predicted Macau,s economy would shrink in 2009. Chief Executive Edmund Ho has chaired several meetings, said Chan, to discuss the government's response. Additional government spending is planned to compensate for falling investment and consumption. Several years of massive revenue collection as the gaming industry took off in Macau allows the government to easily boost its role in the economy. 2007 revenues were double Macau,s government expenditures, and the 2008 surplus is expected to be even bigger. According to Chan, the government could spend at current levels for three years, even without any new revenue. ¶5. (SBU) The Macau Special Administrative Region Government (MSARG) will increase infrastructure-related spending by 30 percent in 2009, said Lau, in an attempt to ease unemployment in the construction sector. Both small public improvement projects and large-scale infrastructure projects will receive rapid approval in the coming year. The MSARG is also considering MOP 8,000 (US$ 1,000) tax rebates to Macau residents and has announced the opening of government-sponsored food banks for low-income households in Macau, to subsidize the poorest residents. ======================================= Macau's "Vanilla" Banking System Stable ======================================= ¶6. (C) Macau,s small banking sector is still in relatively good health, despite the global economic slowdown. Most of the banks in Macau are subsidiaries of large international banks and are engaged in "vanilla" banking services, HONG KONG 00000331 002 OF 003 according to Herculano Da Sousa, Chairman of Banco Nacional Ultramarino (BNU),one of Macau,s most prominent banks. Macau,s small size means that it is easy to judge borrowers' repayment capability. With most job losses borne by foreign workers for now, Macau residents and businesses remain a good risk. The exception is Banco Delta Asia, which continues to struggle along with AMCM forbearance, despite having capital adequacy ratios that would force it to close in other jurisdictions, said Da Sousa. BNU is the local bank for four of the six gaming concessionaires in Macau: LVS (Venetian-Sands),MGM, Wynn, and PBL-Melco (Crown). Casino cash revenue should be enough to fund the current obligations of these companies, he said, and there is very little risk of default. Housing lending is slowing, said Da Sousa, and certain sectors, including construction sub-contractors, are no longer borrowing, but credit continues to expand. Chan agreed, noting that SME credit applications have increased since the government announced it would guarantee 50 percent of SME loans. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Macau is just 0.9 percent. ========================================= Slow Growth Looks Good to Macau Officials ========================================= ¶7. (C) Macau officials are happy to see slower growth in the gaming sector, said Chan. He discounted claims that relaxing visa restrictions for Chinese tourists would boost Macau,s economy. As Chinese high rollers are affected by the economic slowdown, they are less likely to be able to afford to gamble, he said. The junket operators who provide credit to these players are reportedly requiring increased collateral and some are even going out of business. These players are unlikely to return to Macau until the economy recovers, regardless of the visa regime in place. As long as the gaming sector can continue to generate revenues of roughly seven billion MOP per month (US$ 875 million),the casinos should be fine, according to Chan. The pace of gaming growth in Macau has been too rapid, he said, putting pressure on Macau,s limited infrastructure, the capacity of government regulators, and the social fabric of Macau. In addition, the massive investment in the gaming sector has crowded out investment in other areas. During his recent visit to Macau (reftel A) Vice President Xi Jinping reiterated the PRC Central Government's call for Macau to diversify its economy. As the gaming market slows, other sectors may begin to attract resources, Chan said. ¶8. (C) Da Sousa, however, disagreed. A small city like Macau can afford to base its economy on tourism and entertainment, as long as it has a large fiscal cushion to support it when times are tough, he said. Da Sousa agreed with AMCM's Chan that relaxing Chinese visa restrictions would have little affect on declining gaming revenues until the global economy recovers. Macau's export production capacity is virtually gone and is unlikely to return, said Da Sousa. Since the end of the Multi-fiber Arrangement in 2005, Macau's textile and garment industry has been shrinking. BNU's export-oriented manufacturing customers have almost all gone out of business. The government will provide additional support to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) still producing for export, but it cannot provide enough funding to turn this sector around. The MSARG has been trying to develop higher value added services in Macau, but Macau cannot compete with Hong Kong in these areas, he said. ============================================ Mainland Chinese Investment Lacking in Macau ============================================ ¶9. (SBU) Vice President Xi's January visit highlighted the relative lack of mainland Chinese investment in Macau. According to Da Sousa, Chinese investors are coming to Macau, but only to invest in property. Without a gaming license, it is difficult to justify investments in entertainment or tourism-related businesses, he said. Mainland Chinese companies are conspicuously absent in the list of job-generating investments in the entertainment or service industries in Macau. Executive Director of Macau,s Trade and Investment Promotion Institute (IPIM) Echo Chan confirmed that despite spending some 70 percent of its time courting investors and promoting Macau,s SMEs in China, relatively few Chinese investors have put their money into job-creating enterprises in Macau. Efforts to establish cross-border export processing zones have not been very successful. Foreign or Hong Kong-based investors seeking to open franchise operations in Macau, produce for Chinese tourists, or use Macau as a base to get into the Chinese food and beverage market seem to be having more success. HONG KONG 00000331 003.2 OF 003 DONOVAN