A DIVIDED DAB SEEKS INTERNAL CONSENSUS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 001931 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH HK SUBJECT: A DIVIDED DAB SEEKS INTERNAL CONSENSUS ON POLITICAL REFORM REF: (A) HONG KONG 1918 (B) HONG KONG 1490 Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher Marut for reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and Comment: The pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) has not responded to pan-democratic proposals on universal suffrage elections both because the party itself has not reached internal consensus and because they will not take a position before knowing Beijing's bottom line. Although the majority of the DAB's legislators are directly-elected, influential members still support some form of functional constituencies. Our discussions with DAB suggest that there are divisions within the party, with the more progressive wing led by LegCo President Jasper Tsang Yok-sing and including Tsang proteges Starry Lee Wai-kin and Horace Cheung Kwok-kwan. Whatever the internal debate, in the end the DAB will move forward, or walk back, at Beijing's direction. End Summary and Comment. -------------- A Notable Silence -------------- ¶2. (C) At least publicly, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) have remained silent on the upcoming consultations on constitutional reform. While pro-Beijing contacts report Beijing currently has emissaries listening actively to all sectors of Hong Kong society, including the Democratic Party (DPHK) and the Civic Party, no one thinks Beijing made a decision on what type of reform it will allow in 2012 (ref B). Absent a signal from Beijing, the DAB (along with other pro-Beijing/pro-establishment parties) have generally declined to join public discussions on democratic development. For example, after agreeing to speak, DAB Vice Chair Horace Cheung pulled out shortly before an October 10 Hong Kong University conference on constitutional reform. ¶3. (C) Barring some unexpected development, we expect the DAB, the pro-establishment Liberal Party, and any other legislators not in the pan-democratic caucus to support whatever plan the government proposes, which they will assume has Beijing's blessing. If they offer opinions during the consultation process, we expect they will in some way clear their points with Beijing first. -------------- House Divided -------------- ¶4. (C) DAB Vice Chair Horace Cheung recently told us that the DAB was formulating a position only on 2012 electoral reforms mainly because "influential" members held differing views regarding the future of functional constituencies (FCs). Since even the limited changes permitted in 2012 would take a lot of work to address, the party was holding off consideration of future elections. Cheung told us the DAB had discussed expanding the number of FCs, such as by breaking up the current Sport, Performing Arts, Publication and Culture FC. They have also looked at ways to expand voting numbers in the FCs, such as giving board members votes instead of just CEOs in FCs representing businesses. ¶5. (C) Cheung reiterated to us that greater democratization serves the DAB's interests, a view he told us Jasper Tsang shares. Cheung believes the DAB can win a good share of any seats returned by direct elections. Holding more seats allows the DAB to claim more credibly that they could become a "ruling party," which will help their fundraising among business people. Having more opportunities to run for office will also allow DAB to attract new blood, since many promising young candidates are unwilling to wait for an incumbent to retire. In addition, Cheung suggested a LegCo with more directly-elected seats might find it easier to resolve the FC issue. -------------- The New Statesman -------------- ¶6. (C) Citing his steadfast defense of LegCo as an institution, as well as his efforts to build bridges between pan-democratic legislators and the central government, Cheung told us Jasper Tsang is a LegCo President in the mold of his widely respected and famously non-partisan predecessor Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai. He admitted, however, that a key test would be whether Tsang breaks with tradition by casting a vote on the government's coming electoral reform package (expected in 2010). The LegCo President is not barred from voting, but HONG KONG 00001931 002 OF 002 Fan never voted in order to remain neutral, and Tsang has committed to keeping the tradition. Were his vote needed to achieve the 2/3 majority required for changes to the Basic Law, Tsang would face tremendous pressure from the Hong Kong government and Beijing to vote, as well as tremendous pressure from the pan-democrats and a considerable portion of the public at large to stick with tradition. While there is no way to say how Tsang would decide, he is probably the only DAB member who would see the issue as a choice. MARUT