MACAU LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: DEMOCRATS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 001807 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM MC SUBJECT: MACAU LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: DEMOCRATS GAIN ONE SEAT REF: (A) HONG KONG 1767 (B) 08 HONG KONG 2094 Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher J. Marut for reasons 1 .4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Results for Macau's September 20 Legislative Assembly (LA) were announced near midnight September 22, after recounting some 6,500 initially rejected ballots. A record 59.9 percent turnout rate proved largely to support the status quo, returning eight incumbents and electing three candidates replacing members of the same party. The one significant change was the democratic New Macau Association's (NMA) netting one additional seat, giving parties supporting eventual universal suffrage four of the twelve directly-elected seats. Meanwhile, a union of two traditional associations, the General Union of Neighborhood Associations (Kai Fong) and the Women's General Association of Macau (Fu Lyun),lost one of its seats. The ten indirectly-elected seats were already determined without election, while the seven appointed seats have not yet been announced. While the vote process appeared free and fair, there were some instances of campaign irregularities, including free or discounted meals (illegal) and rides to the polls (ruled legal provided no campaign materials appeared on the vehicle). A last-minute smear-attempt against NMA incumbent Au Kam-san may have cost him some votes, but proved unable to prevent his return by a considerable margin. The new LA is expected to take office October 15. End summary. -------------- "Democrats" Gain One, Miss Two -------------- ¶2. (C) Of the three electorally-competitive groups running for the Legislative Assembly (LA) on platforms supporting eventual elections by universal suffrage -- New Macau Association (NMA),the Civil Service Union-backed "New Hope" and newcomer middle-class Civic Power -- only NMA made gains. Splitting their incumbents Ng Kuok-cheong and Au Kam-sam on to two slates allowed Ng to carry his number two, NMA stalwart Paul Chan Wai-chi, to victory (see ref A for an explanation of Macau's electoral system). Au polled enough votes to return himself but not his number two. This result was within expectations -- our sense from contacts was that a fourth seat for NMA was possible but optimistic. Their win increases the number of pro-democracy legislators from three to four, but the impact in the institutionally-weak and overwhelmingly pro-government chamber will be more symbolic than practical. ¶3. (C) NMA faced some last-minute mud-slinging in the form of release of some confidential judicial documents relating to a fraud conviction against a member of Au's slate (done in absentia - the candidate herself had not even been informed of the court case; she is appealing). Au himself was accused of a range of sins, including being a Falun Gong practitioner and having done some kind of back-room deal with Chief Executive-designate Fernando Chui Sai-on. IIUM scholar Eric Sautede believes these tactics may have cost Au votes among new voters who generally support democracy but have no deep understanding of individual candidates, and could therefore be influenced by negative advertising of this sort. ¶4. (C) More of a surprise was the failure of Agnes Lam Iok-fong to take a seat. Lam's centrist, middle-class oriented Civic Power had been gaining momentum, and Lam hoped to capture a slice of the newly politically active Macau society who nevertheless feel uncomfortable with the more "confrontational" NMA (ref B). Some contacts had predicted she would succeed, but she fell about 2800 votes short of winning a seat. ¶5. (C) Democratic-leaning Jose Pereira Coutinho had claimed in recent weeks that his "New Hope" ticket had enough support to seat his number two, Macau Civil Servants' Association General Assembly President Rita Botelho dos Santos. While the ticket posted gains on the order of thirty percent over 2005 (putting its second seat ahead of Agnes Lam),the votes were sufficient only to re-seat Coutinho. While some contacts had suggested "New Hope" had a chance, the general opinion had been that a second seat for them would have been a stretch. -------------- Establishment Holds its Ground -------------- ¶6. (C) The establishment held most of its ground, with some tickets posting double-digit vote percentage gains. Gaining nearly 30 percent over its 2005 performance, the Macau HONG KONG 00001807 002 OF 003 Federation of Trade Unions (which also holds the two Labor sector indirectly-elected seats) ranked first in vote totals and maintained its two seats. Fujianese community leader Chan Meng-kam's United Citizen's Association lost around 18 percent over 2005, but maintained its two seats. Chan's rumored connections to organized crime do not seem to have hurt his popularity, although his reported sweep of 80 percent of those voters casting ballots from prison is at least food for thought. Casino tycoon Stanley Ho's fourth wife Angela Leong On-kei also gained around 20 percent over 2005, with IIUM's Sautede seeing Leong as Chan Meng-kam's main competitor. The only net loss was suffered by the joint General Union of Neighborhood Associations (Kai Fong)-Women's General Association of Macau (Fu Lyun) ticket. Our contacts suggest these stalwarts of Macau's "traditional associations," though active in providing a range of social services, have not adapted as well to an increasingly evolutionary political environment, and paid the price. -------------- Botched Ballots and Questionable Tactics -------------- ¶7. (C) Slowing the vote counts were around 6,500 ballots initially disqualified as spoilt (about 4.4 percent of the total) that the Electoral Affairs Commission ultimately decided to examine to see if voter intent could be determined. While rumors have suggested some votes were deliberately spoiled by voters who accepted some gift from one of the sides but did not wish to cast the vote they had sold, most of the error was ascribed to a switch from ballots marked by pen to ballots marked by a stamp. With less than 1000 votes between the winner of the twelfth seat and her two closest competitors, the impact of the 5,467 votes eventually declared valid was potentially decisive. In the end there was no change in the election. ¶8. (C) In addition to the attempted Swift-boating of NMA's Au Kam-san, there were a number of practices reported in the media (including front-page ads supporting electoral slates on election day in some Chinese papers) which indicate that the execution of Macau elections remains a work in progress. Interestingly, the Macau Electoral Affairs Commission ruled that electoral committees could provide free transportation to voters provided the vehicles contained no election-related advertisements. IIUM's Sautede (strictly protect) reported rumors that Angela Leong's campaign pulled the names and addresses of her company SJM's employees, then held some managers responsible for turning out a quota of voters in each polling district on pain of loss of their annual bonuses. Media reported voters were also offered free tea and dim sum at the Landmark Hotel and lunch for one pataca (about twelve cents) at Fisherman's Wharf. Both venues are owned by David Chow Kam-fai, whose wife Melinda Chan Mei-yi ultimately won the seat he is vacating. A group arrested for alleged vote-buying was offering 500-700 patacas (about USD 63-88) per vote. Overall, however, Macau's Commission Against Corruption reported receiving around 40 percent fewer complaints from both the election period and election day itself over 2005. -------------- And Now, the Numbers -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Below are the directly-elected seats in order of win. Other than NMA and "New Hope", all may be reckoned as pro-establishment and generally pro-Beijing. * indicates a new member. Per ref A, each slate leader is reckoned as winning the full number of votes, while the number two is reckoned at half the total. No slate won more than two seats. (1) Kwan Tsui-hang, Macau Federation of Trade Unions (running as "Union for Development") - 22,101 votes. (2) Chan Meng-kam, United Citizens Association of Macau (also a Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) delegate) - 17,775 votes. (3) Ng Kuok-cheong, New Macau Association (running as "New Prosperous Macau Association") - 16,907 votes. (4) Ho Ion-sang, Union for Promoting Progress (joint ticket between the General Union of Neighborhood Associations (Kai Fong) and the Women's General Association of Macau (Fu Lyun)) - 15,033 votes. (5) Angela Leong On-kei, Macau Development Alliance (and Stanley Ho fourth wife) - 14,541 votes. HONG KONG 00001807 003 OF 003 (6) Jose Pereira Coutinho, Macau Civil Servants' Association (running as "New Hope") - 13,159 votes. (7) Au Kam-san, New Macau Association (running as "New Democratic Macau Association") - 11,303 votes. (8) *Lee Chong-cheng, Macau Federation of Trade Unions - 11,050 votes. (9) *Mak Soi-kun, Macau Guangdong Union (formerly the General Union for the Good of Macau; incumbent Fong Chi-keong returned this time as an indirectly-elected legislator) - 10,827 votes. (10) Ung Choi-kun, United Citizens Association of Macau - 8887 votes. (11) *Paul Chan Wai-chi, New Macau Association (running as "New Prosperous Macau Association") - 8,453 votes. (12) *Melinda Chan Mei-yi, Alliance for Change (replacing husband David Chow Kam-fai) - 8,191 votes ¶10. (U) Indirectly-elected candidates were returned uncontested. * indicates a new member. ¶A. Industrial, Commercial and Financial Sector (4 seats): *Ho Iat-seng (National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPC/SC) Member; Executive Council (ExCo) member). Fong Chi-keong (CPPCC delegate, former directly-elected legislator) Cheang Chi-kong (ExCo member) Kou Hoi-in (NPC deputy) ¶B. Labor Sector (2 seats): Lau Cheok-va (Vice President of LA; NPC deputy; Macau Federation of Trade Unions) *Lam Heong-sam (Macau Federation of Trade Unions) ¶C. Professional Sector (2 seats): Chui Sai-cheong (younger brother of Chief Executive-designate Fernando Chui Sai-on; CPPCC delegate) Leonel Alves (ExCo member; CPPCC delegate) ¶D. Social Services, Cultural (includes religion),Educational and Sports Sector (2 seats): Victor Cheung Lup-kwan Chan Chak-mo MARUT