CIVIC PARTY TABLES UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE PLAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HONG KONG 001750 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH HK SUBJECT: CIVIC PARTY TABLES UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE PLAN, ENDORSES BY-ELECTIONS-AS-REFERENDA REF: (A) HONG KONG 1554 (B) 08 HONG KONG 1599 (C) HONG KONG 406 Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher Marut for reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On September 8, the Civic Party became the first organization in Hong Kong to go on record with a roadmap for "true universal suffrage elections." The Civics would see the Chief Executive nominated either by an expanded Election Committee or by petition of a hundred thousand registered voters. The Legislative Council's (LegCo) Geographic Constituency elections would have candidates run as individuals in the five districts on a "first past the post" basis. The sectoral-based Functional Constituencies would be consolidated and then eliminated in stages (details to be worked out). While requiring changes to the Basic Law and Hong Kong law, nothing the Civics propose is so far-fetched that, were the Hong Kong Government and Beijing willing, a deal could not be struck. Meanwhile, the Civics have joined the League of Social Democrats in proposing the use of legislator resignations and by-elections as a "referendum" on universal suffrage (ref A),albeit only if the Government refuses to engage on the proposed roadmap. These proposals drew a sharp dissent from small-party legislators that the pan-democratic parties are not consulting appropriately within the caucus. Public opinion remains dubious of the referendum idea, and the pan-democrats need lose only three seats to deprive themselves of their current veto in LegCo on constitutional reform proposals. End summary. -------------- Chief Executive: Adding a Popular Nomination -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Currently, Hong Kong's Chief Executive (CE) is elected by a simple majority of the 800-member Election Committee. The Committee is itself elected by limited franchise from four broad societal sectors (Industrial/Commercial/Financial; Professions; Labor/Social Services/Religion/other; and Legislative Councilors/District Councilors/CPPCC delegates/NPC deputies). The Election Committee also nominates candidates, with 100 votes being the minimum required. Each Committee member has one nominating vote, limiting the potential field to eight candidates. ¶3. (SBU) The Basic Law declares as its (eventual) goal the election of the CE by universal suffrage, and the December 2007 National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPC/SC) Decision specifies that this election shall include all qualified Hong Kong voters. However, the Basic Law requires that candidates for such an election be nominated by "a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures." Pan-democrats see many devils lurking in the details of that requirement, the chief one being the suspicion that Beijing intends to create a filtering mechanism to prevent an "unacceptable" candidate from standing for office. That said, the pubic debate to date has generally recognized this as a simpler question than reforming the Legislative Council (LegCo),with the accepted questions being how many people will sit on the committee and how many votes will be required for nomination. Most assume the current Electoral Committee will form the base of the nominating committee, although this is not a requirement under the Basic Law. ¶4. (SBU) For 2012, the Civics propose to "expand the electoral base" (details unspecified) for the 800 current members of the Election Committee. They also propose adding the 400-odd directly-elected District Councilors (but excluding the hundred or so that are appointed by the CE) to the Election Committee, with a net total (after accounting for double-hatting) of about 1160 members. Finally, the Civics would abolish the restriction in Hong Kong law on members of political parties serving as CE. ¶5. (SBU) In 2017, this expanded Election Committee would become the nominating committee. The Civics would lower the required number of nominating votes from 100 to 50. In addition, the Civics propose that any candidate able to muster a petition signed by 100,000 qualified voters should be considered nominated. To meet the Basic Law requirement of nomination by committee, the Civics would have the committee certify the petition. Election would then be on the basis of universal suffrage and "one person, one vote." ¶6. (C) Comment: While critics will disallow the notion of popular nomination, we see no specific impediment in the Basic Law to the Civics' proposed nomination and election HONG KONG 00001750 002 OF 004 system. To concur, however, Beijing would have to place its bet on the pragmatism of the Hong Kong electorate not to support a candidate unable to work with the central government -- a pragmatism we believe exists. The Basic Law is silent on the subject of political party affiliation for the CE, but Section 31 of Hong Kong's Chief xecutive Election Ordinance requires successful andidates to declare within seven days that theyare not members of political parties (presumably llowing time for resignation) and to undertake not to join a political party while in office. Sine LegCo does not have the power to amend laws on is own initiative, the Government would need to secifically agree to changing the Ordinance in addtion to the other provisions of the plan. End cmment. -------------- LegCo: Consolidate, Cancel, Collectivize -------------- ¶7. (C) The sixty members of LegCo are currently elected half by five Geographic Constituencies (GC) using a complex set of systems known as "list system of proportional representation" (candidates running on electoral slates) and the "largest remainder formula" (apportioning seats from party lists based on ratios between available seats and valid votes cast.) The other thirty are elected by sector-based small-circle Functional Constituencies (FC) (see ref B for a fuller explanation of both electoral systems). While the GC election system is Byzantine at best, it at least represents direct elections under "one person, one vote," and the pan-democrats have traditionally dominated these seats (19/30 at present, or more than 60 percent). ¶8. (SBU) The FCs create their own voting and election rules, with some allowing "corporate voting" -- each business or company represented in a sector has one vote, cast by the CEO. As a result, the whole total of the electorate for all 27 FCs (Labor has three seats) is smaller than any one of the GCs, and four have less than 200 voters. Fourteen FC seats were returned uncontested in the 2008 election. The pan-democrats have long held that no system involving FCs can comply with the universal suffrage principles of "equal opportunity to stand in elections" and "voting by equal and universal suffrage." While the Government is on record as saying the current system is inconsistent with universal suffrage, it has not taken a position on what system might replace it, and models involving FCs with broadened electorates have been floated by pro-Beijing figures. ¶9. (SBU) The Civics' plan would start in 2012 by "amalgamating" FCs "that are similar in character or comparatively small in size", although this reduced number of constituencies would still produce 30 legislators (specifics not given). Immediately following 2012, the "split voting system" (which requires a majority vote of both GC and FC members to pass a bill introduced by a legislator rather than the Government) would be replaced by a simple majority vote system. For the 2016 LegCo elections, directly-elected seats would be increased while FC seats would be decreased (again, the Civics offer no specifics). Finally, in 2020, all the FC seats would be eliminated. The GCs would retain the five electoral districts, but candidates would run as individuals and fill the seats on a "first past the post" basis. The thirty seats no longer elected by the FCs would be filled by proportional representation, with candidate lists running "at large" in Hong Kong as a whole. ¶10. (C) Comment: In their LegCo proposal, the Civics have left out some key details. In any scenario in which some FCs are eliminated before others, the debate will be contentious. The "split-voting system" is included in Annex II of the Basic Law, so eliminating it would require a 2/3 LegCo majority and the concurrence of the CE. It goes without saying the plan requires the FC legislators themselves to vote their seats out of existence. The Civics solution to replacing the FCs is elegant, in that it allows for the "functional character" of the FCs to be retained: A professional group or commercial sector would be free to establish an electoral slate to compete for votes on an equal basis. A somewhat similar solution was mooted by pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) leader Jasper Tsang Yok-sing in a 2007 press interview. Whether or not Beijing, or the tycoons represented by the FCs to whom Beijing listens, will agree remains to be seen. The Civics' plan to make the GCs single-candidate races is arguably possible under existing rules: there is no bar against a single-candidate slate, and the Democratic Party (DPHK) found it prudent to split up their more popular candidates to allow each to run on his own merits in 2008. End comment. HONG KONG 00001750 003 OF 004 -------------- Referendum: Escalating Threat -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The Civics have cast release of this roadmap as stage 1 in their "3-Stage Fight Plan for Universal Suffrage." Should the Hong Kong Government refuse to engage with the pan-democrats on arrangements for the post-2012 elections (which the Government continues to maintain should be decided by successor administrations),the Civics are joining the LSD in calling for five GC legislators resign to force by-elections, which the Civics term promoting "a popular vote against the Government's 2012 package." The Civics propose a different list of five candidates to resign than the LSD or the DPHK's Szeto Wah (ref A): their own Tanya Chan Shuk-chong (Hong Kong Island) and Alan Leong Kah-kit (Kowloon East), along with DPHK elder Lee Wing-tat (New Territories West), radical League of Social Democrats legislator Leung "Long Hair" Kwok-hung (New Territories East) and Association for Democracy and the People's Livelihood (ADPL) legislator Frederick Fung Kin-kee (Kowloon West). ¶12. (SBU) Should the pan-democrats win all five (or at least three) by-elections but fail to persuade the administration to negotiate, the Civics would give the Government "twelve months to produce a roadmap for universal suffrage." If the government failed to do so, the Civics call for all 23 pan-democrats to resign and to "demand Donald Tsang's resignation for failing to act in accordance with his promise in the 2007 Chief Executive election (to resolve universal suffrage during his term in office)." ¶13. (C) Comment: The pan-democrats currently hold a "blocking minority" in LegCo -- votes sufficient to deny the Government the 2/3 majority needed to pass the changes to the Basic Law required for any electoral reform. They do not need the "referendum" to stop an unsatisfactory Government reform package. However, some pan-democrats now regret their decision to oppose the 2005 Government electoral reform proposal, and the camp may be concerned about being seen as making the perfect the enemy of the good should the Government table a proposal which satisfies the general public. This makes the referendum a good idea in principle as, if successful, it would hand the pan-democrats a fresh mandate to oppose the package. That said, mainstream public opinion remains dubious of both the Civics' and LSD's (ref A) proposed referenda. ¶14. (C) Comment continued: The other problem is, they might lose. Leong and Lee can be regarded as safe seats. Leong was a candidate for Chief Executive in 2007 and is one of Hong Kong's most popular politicians, while Lee is a DPHK stalwart who 34QQN_]s sufficient to win seats in this way, even many pan-democrats have been put off by the LSD's banana-throwing antics in LegCo (ref C),bringing into question whether he could draw all the normally pan-democratic votes. It goes without saying the DAB would move heaven and earth to unseat him. ADPL ranks third in popularity among political parties (above the Civics, LSD, DPHK and DAB),but Fung himself ranks only 29th in recognition among Hong Kong voters. Though charismatic, Tanya Chan won her seat only because she was first on a Civic Party list including party leader Audrey Eu -- voters who feared Eu might lose her seat provided enough votes to put both in LegCo. How Tanya may fare on her own remains to be proven, particularly against a formidable DAB opponent like former legislator Choy So-yuk or new Vice Chairman Horace Cheung Kwok-gwan. Should the pan-democrats lose three of the five seats, they lose their blocking minority. End comment. -------------- Internal Consensus Not Reached -------------- ¶15. (C) The Civics are the first to put a concrete proposal for democratic reform on the table, but they cannot yet claim the support even of all the pan-democrats. While we understand the plan corresponds with a general consensus reached in pan-democratic fora held last week, no other party has formally endorsed the Civics' roadmap. The issue of by-elections-as-referenda is even more contentious. While the DPHK has taken no position on the proposals, it also has specifically not ruled them out. The ADPL's Fung, however, has been publicly critical of the Civics' failure to consult HONG KONG 00001750 004 OF 004 him and other representatives of smaller pan-democratic parties before making this proposal. He was joined by fellow ADPL legislator Cheung Kwok-Che, as well as the Neighborhood and Workers Service Center's Leung Yiu-chung and Confederation of Trade Union's Lee Cheuk-yan, in telling the media they were "broken-hearted" to see fissures in pan-democratic unity caused by the Civics' and the LSD's failing to consult with the smaller parties. The pan-democrats intend to convene sessions of their "lunch box" caucus to attempt to restore unity. MARUT