THE NEW ANTI-DAWA COALITION - MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HILLAH 000047 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINS IZ IR SUBJECT: THE NEW ANTI-DAWA COALITION - MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING REF: HILLAH 46 HILLAH 00000047 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) This is a PRT Babil cable. Summary -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Summary: On August 9 Iraqi press reported the formation of a new, 18 PC member coalition, the Babil National Coalition (reftel). The coalition reportedly formed in opposition to the ruling DAWA coalition. Press reports and sources from a variety of parties disagree on the membership of the coalition, citing numbers ranging from 16 to 19 members, and the strength of the coalition and its purpose remain unclear. Although under Law 21 it only takes 16 votes to remove the Governor, at this time the new coalition appears to lack both the vision and the will to do much of anything. End summary. Governor Al-Zargany Is Not Worried -------------- ¶3. (U) Babil Media reported this week that the National Reform Trend (Dr. Ja'afary) has joined the new anti-DAWA coalition on the PC (Babil National Coalition),increasing coalition membership to 19. Reportedly the Babil National Coalition confirmed that they believe the performance of the Governorate and Provincial Council is unsatisfactory. Babil Governor Mr. Salman Al-Zargany (independent, affiliated with the DAWA coalition) reportedly responded to the new coalition that there was room for more than one political view in the new democratic Iraq. He echoed this view in his comments to PRT Leader over lunch on August 11: "from my perspective, I do not think the new coalition will change a lot on the political map, if so and they would like to change the governor; I will work in any governmental department and would be happy to help." Sheikh Shanan Offers DAWA Concessions -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On August 10, the day following the announcement of the formation of the Babil National Coalition, Sheikh Ali Shanan, a tribal leader from Kifl who is close to Babil DAWA chief Abu Ahmed Al-Basri, called on the PRT to seek USG support for what he implied was Abu Ahmed's proposed plan to resolve the tension between Governor Al-Zargany and Deputy Governor Iskander Witwit, the leader of the new coalition. Shanan said that DAWA knew they had wronged Witwit by limiting his authority, and that DAWA was willing to offer the Deputy Governor more responsibilities to resolve the matter. PRT leader mentioned that the PRT would be meeting with Witwit later in the week, and Shanan attempted to enlist PRT Leader as a midwife for his solution, suggesting that he encourage Witwit to call on the governor and hint that DAWA was willing to offer the Deputy Governor more power. Coalition Without a Mission -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On August 13, Deputy Governor Witwit met with the PRT. Wiwit was critical of the Governor and the PC Chair Kadhum Majeed Tuman, saying that he and other members of his coalition had documents proving mistakes both had made while in office. He indicated for example that the Governor had sent someone else to a meeting that the Deputy Governor should have attended, and that the PC Chair had abused his position to give jobs to a number of unqualified Sadrists with unsavory connections. Witwit alleged that two Shi'a clerics are the masterminds behind the Governor's actions - Sayyid Rasool Al- Mousawi and Sayyid Hasan Tuhmazi - implying that these two are getting their instructions from Iran but providing no further information. The Deputy Governor remarked that he had recently met with the Governor and had been given greater responsibilities addressing some of his complaints. When pressed, Witwit was unable to articulate what additional actions he wanted the Governor and the PC Chair to take to resolve the problems he raised, or to HILLAH 00000047 002.2 OF 002 describe the desired end state that would satisfy his concerns. He asserted that the Coalition did not have replacement candidates in mind for these two officials, which seemed odd given that Witwit was formerly Governor of Babil and lost that job to Al-Zargany in the provincial elections. The Deputy Governor said that a number of the members of the new collation were currently travelling, and that upon their return the members would have a meeting to share their concerns about the current officials and discuss how they wanted to proceed. Source Close to Sadrists Acknowledges DAWA Mistakes -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Also on August 13, PRT LES met with Murtada Kammil, a former PC member (independent but close to the Sadrists, the PCC and DAWA PC member Dr. Ne'amah Jassim Hamzah Al-Bekry). Kammil had just returned from Iran, and had not yet heard about the new coalition. He confirmed the tension between the Governor and Deputy Governor, and said that he had expected this and had warned DAWA that this might happen because DAWA policy was marginalizing members of their own coalition. Comment - Just a Paper "Dawsha" -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Comment: The spike in concern about the new coalition appears to be only so much folderol. In conversations with the leadership of the coalition we determined that there is really no intent to change either the PCC or the governor nor is there any clearly defined end state. This, in essence, is a paper "dawsha" - lots of posturing and breast beating brought about by bruised egos and displaced senses of entitlement, signifying little. ROBERTS