BAGHDAD THROWS A CURVE BALL AT BABIL DA'WA

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000029

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/9/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR IZ
SUBJECT: BAGHDAD THROWS A CURVE BALL AT BABIL DA'WA

REF: HILLAH 26

CLASSIFIED BY: Kenneth M. hillas, PRT Leader, Babil PRT, Dept
of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Da'wa officials in Babil and other the southern provinces
have been asked -- but not instructed -- by Da'wa leaders in
Baghdad to talk to ISCI about forming provincial coalitions,
according to several sources. Babil Da'wa party Chairman Abu
Ahmed Al-Basri confirmed that he was recently by April 6 by Abd
Al-Karim Al-Enzi, a Da'wa COR member, on behalf of PM Maliki
with the request that Al-Basri explore a power sharing
arrangement with ISCI.

2. (C) Al Basri told the PRT that he responded by pointing out
that there are no provincial posts left to offer ISCI, as they
had alrady been promised to other coaltion allies. He said that
he told Al-Enzi that it is not possible to form a coalition with
ISCI at the eleventh hour. The new Babil Provincial Council (PC)
is slated to hold its first session on April 12, two days after
the legal deadline has lapsed. The outgoing Governor has
refrained from announcing a date for the convening of the new PC
while ISCI tries to entice and/or intimidate defections from one
of the parties belonging to the Da'wa-led four party coalition
that had been expected to assume power. Al-Basri asserted that
he had not yet met with ISCI officials to revisit the idea of
ISCI joining the provincial government, although he said Da'wa
made a general offer to cooperate in a new PC and was turned
down. Another Iraqi source, however, claims he was present at an
April 6 meeting at the Governor's residence at which Al-Basri
and Governor Salim Saleh Al-Muslimawi (ISCI) discussed a
possible coalition.

3. (C) Da'wa remains divided over who should be the next
Governor. Al-Basri has made clear that he will within 30 days
have the required university degree through a university
extension program in which he has been reportedly enrolled. The
timing is seen as suspicious by some new PC members, including
those in the Da'wa-led four party coaltiion. Another Da'wa
oficial and incomgin PC member, Bank Manager Majid Flejfel,
believes he best fits the profile of a competent administrator
that the Baghdad Da'wa leadership reportedly wants for a new
Governor. Flejfil and several coalition party members have
stated that they will not vote for Al-Basri when the coalition
picks its candidate on April 9 or 10. A compromise candidate for
Governor reportedly is Ali Shelah, an advisor to PM Maliki and
university professor, who is considered an independent and lived
for several years in Switzerland.

4. (C) It is unclear what prompted this last-minute Baghdad
guidance on reaching out to ISCI, or whether it will alter plans
for a Babil coalition government between Jaffari's Reform Trend
(promised one deputy Governorship),Al-Ahrar (Sadrist party to
hold the PC Chairmanship),Iskander Witwit's Independent Bloc
(slated for the other Deputy Governorship) and Da'wa (to get the
Governorship). Al-Basri hinted that the PM was aiming to
preserve Shia political unity at the national level. Al-Basri
was reluctant to address the possible impact of Iranian
Parliamentary Speaker Larijani's visit last week or Da'wa
concerns that Badr -- suspected by some in Da'wa of possibly
being behind this week's rash of bomb attacks in Baghdad --
could destablize the situation in the province if ISCI were left
completely out of provincial government. In either event, the
"request from Baghdad" highlights the national Da'wa
leadership's role in trying to shape the provincial political
landscape.

HILLAS