BABIL PROVINCE ELECTIONS: BALLOTS OVER BULLETS

UNCLAS HILLAH 000015 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS IZ SUBJECT: BABIL PROVINCE ELECTIONS: BALLOTS OVER BULLETS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Babil Provincial Council (PC) election was credible and perceived as legitimate by the majority of citizens in the province. There were some problems with isolated cases of observer misconduct and difficulties with registration and problems with getting to the polls but overall the election took place in an orderly fashion. Da'wa took first place with 12 percent, ISCI placed second followed by the Ahrar Independent Trend. A Da'wa led coalition will most likely choose the next governor and Provincial Council (PC) Chair. Sunnis and Saddrists both participated in the election, opting for ballots over bullets. The Sunnis did not vote as a bloc and do not yet have an identifiable representative on the PC but the Saddrists fared better and will have three to five seats on the PC. Voters have high expectations for the new PC, which will have significantly reduced budgetary resources. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) The post election coalitions forming for the Babil Provincial Council (PC) are Da'wa, who garnered the most votes (12.5 percent),the Ahrar Independent Trend (Saddrists),in third place (6.5 percent). The other parties most likely to form an alliance with Da'wa are Dr. Ja'fari's National Reform Trend (4.4 percent) and the Iraqi Commission for Civil Society Organizations of Iskander Witwit, former Babil Governor (4.1 percent). It looks like they will command approximately 17 seats on the council, a narrower majority than initially expected. The ISCI -led opposition includes the Independent Justice Group, an ISCI front group, PC Chairman's Al Ansar Independent Party (3.4 percent) and Ayad Allawi's slate the Iraqi National List (3.4 percent). This would give the putative opposition 13 seats. The Da'wa-led coalition will elect a Governor and PC Chair, but is not likely to form a cohesive bloc. Rather, personal agendas, loyalties and interests will prevail over party discipline. Da'wa leader Abu Ahmed Al Basri has said there is no chance for Da'wa and ISCI to renew their previous coalition. He is also a likely candidate for the Governorship, although he has said he does not want it. ¶3. (SBU) The election results suggest some political reconciliation is happening in the Saddrist and Sunni communities due to their participation in the election process. Babil' population is approximately 25 percent Sunni and is located primarily in the Northwest corner of the province in the areas of Musayib and Mahawheel Districts. No self-identified Sunni party won enough votes to win a seat on the PC which suggests the Sunnis did not vote as a single block. A slate that was popular in the Sunni communities is Ayad Allawi's slate, the Iraqi National list, which will most likely have two seats on the council. Allawi's intent to form a coalition with ISCI/Badr may trouble those in the Sunni Community who gave Allawi's party their support. Sheikh Sabah Haji from Jurf Al Sakr has already expressed concern that there will be no Sunni representation on the new council though the possibility exists for one of the political slates to give up a seat and allow a Sunni to be seated. ¶4. (SBU) the Saddrists Independent Trend's participation in the election process netted from three to five seats on the PC depending on which source you use. The Saddrists are pleased with their performance, strengthening the moderates' hand. ¶5. (U) The new PC will face high expectations, especially with regard to improved essential services. Unfortunately the new PC will have reduced budgetary resources due to the reduced oil revenues. The new council may not be able to deliver but they will have four years to demonstrate some progress. ¶6. (U) The election was viewed as credible by most voters although there was a litany of small grievances and complaints. The local IHEC director, Hussein Abd Al Khulaif, sent 54 formal complaints (mostly concerning party observer's behavior) about the election to the central IHEC office in Baghdad for adjudication. Da'wa along with eight other parties requested a vote recount, believing ISCI was credited with too many votes. The Union of Engineers slate suggested that the tally sheets had been altered in Baghdad and that tally sheets were improperly removed from voting centers and sent to the province's IHEC office in Al Hillah. The most serious problem, however, was the confusion at voting centers about voters not registered due to problems with their ration cards and the registration system. In addition, the Election Day vehicle ban kept numbers of people that morning from rural areas from reaching their voting centers. HEATH