FINNISH COMMITMENT TO AFGHANISTAN WEATHERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000360 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2019 TAGS: AF FI MOPS PGOV PREL SUBJECT: FINNISH COMMITMENT TO AFGHANISTAN WEATHERS FIREFIGHTS IN MAZAR-E-SHARIF AND SNIPING IN HELSINKI Classified By: Ambassador Bruce J. Oreck For Reasons 1.4B and D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The GOF has been a partner in Afghanistan with boots on the ground since 2002, and its political leaders, with few exceptions, continue to demonstrate their commitment to the mission both publicly and privately. However, having suffered only one fatality so far, Finland's political consensus has not yet been seriously tested. A series of firefights involving Finnish ISAF troops deployed in Mazar-e-Sharif starting in July and peaking in late August caused some debate as some commentators, some members of parliament, and a retired general have argued that Finland is now at war rather than taking part in a peacekeeping mission. The government and President responded by denying that they have led the nation to war and affirming its commitment of troops and civilian personnel to Afghanistan. Minister Vayrynen was the sole dissenting voice in government, though he urged only the withdrawal of Finnish soldiers, not civilian personnel. The disturbing reports of fraud in Afghanistan's presidential election and continuing concerns over corruption and human rights there present an unfavorable backdrop as parliament holds an open debate on Afghanistan on October 1. That said, post assesses that the GOF would entertain requests for more contributions to Afghanistan that did not involve additional military boots on the ground. END SUMMARY. -------------- LESS PEACE, MORE FIGHTING FOR FINNS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In July and August, media in Finland reported on the increasingly difficult security environment around Mazar-e-Sharif, the base of operations for Finnish ISAF forces (always referred to here as "peacekeepers") which are co-located with the Swedish-led PRT. According to the media, Finnish patrols were exchanging fire with insurgents up to several times a week, a marked increase which might have been related to more energetic ISAF activity in the run-up to the presidential poll as well as a more active Taliban presence in the north. Some of the attacks also involved IEDs. Neither the Swedes nor the Finns suffered casualties in these engagements though they reported killing or wounding several unidentified attackers. The Finnish ISAF commander indicated publicly that he didn't believe that the attacks would stop his troops from continuing their patrols. Recruiting of volunteers to deploy has also apparently continued without missing a beat. A survey conducted by the Finnish Officers' Union concluded that troops heading to Afghanistan were doing so with high morale, though concerns were raised about the sufficiency of benefits. -------------- WAR BY ANY OTHER NAME -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Some voices in the Finnish media and commentariat reacted to the increasing violence in Mazar-e-Sharif, and Afghanistan in general, by questioning whether Finland might actually be involved in a war rather than the peacekeeping and reconstruction mission which they originally signed onto in 2002. In late July a commentator in the weekly Suomen Kuvalehti argued that it was "tragicomic that the usage of the term war has not been discussed in Finland any sooner . . . Apparently Finland's political leaders need a few body bags before they're willing to face the facts." One of the sharpest critiques was penned by Finnish Institute of International Affairs researcher Charly Salonius-Pasternak, who wrote in Helsingin Sanomat in late July that "(T)hough Finnish soldiers don't participate in offensive operations, from the viewpoint of the opponent and international law they are clearly a party to the conflict." ¶4. (SBU) A retired commander of the Finnish Defense Forces (1994-2001),General Gustav Hagglund, bluntly asked in the pages of the daily Aamulehti in mid-September "what does it matter to us if the Taliban are in charge (in Afghanistan) or not?". He continued: "We don't belong in battles in which you have to attack and kill people. . . . To the Americans the war on terror is motivation to be there, but I don't understand what we Europeans are doing there." Notably, though, even General Hagglund did not call for a unilateral withdrawal of Finnish troops, instead urging that Finland work towards a general withdrawal of all international forces. Hagglund's comments drew both support and ridicule, some of which reminded Finns just what kind of regime the Taliban were when they were in power. ¶5. (SBU) Foreign Minister Stubb and Defense Minister Hakamies forcefully denied claims that Finland was at war, reinforcing the government's line that Finland was participating in a UN operation, though an especially tough one. In a mid-August interview on Finnish public broadcaster YLE, Stubb described the mission in Afghanistan "as one of difficult crisis management work, in which Finnish soldiers are working to return peace and stability to Afghanistan working under a UN mandate." Hakamies defensively shot back at critics that "a statement that Finland is at war and that decision-makers are unaware of it is baseless." -------------- MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT JOIN PUBLIC DEBATE -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Some members of parliament joined the sniping at the government's line during the August spike in violence. At the extreme end, Left Alliance MP Jaakko Laakso, a member of the Defense Committee, compared Finnish help to the U.S. to its efforts to please the Nazis during World War II. Social Democratic (SDP) MP Eero Heinaluoma from the Foreign Affairs Committee called for a political solution, including negotiations with moderate Taliban, rather than relying on military means. However, the debate has not broken down strictly along party lines. SDP leader Jutta Urpilainen voiced support for Finland's participation in ISAF, "which has a UN mandate and is supported by the international community." ¶7. (C) Even governing coalition MPs sounded more circumspect. Center Party MP Markku Laukkanen, vice-chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee and leader of the Finnish-American Caucus, declared the ISAF operation to be in crisis and called for post-Afghan election consultations among ISAF contributors to find an exit strategy. However, in a private meeting with the Ambassador, he confidently stated that Finnish troops would remain and that Finland would be prepared to provide even more help, though preferably in civilian form. Center Party MP Juha Koreaoja, chair of the Defense Committee, emphasized Finland's tradition of taking on international responsibility and declared that it would never be the first to withdraw from a crisis situation, but he also made clear that Finland's election surge of about 100 extra troops should return home when the election was concluded and that any extra effort should take the form of civilian assistance. ¶8. (SBU) President Halonen and Prime Minister Vanhanen, not always of the same viewpoint on policy issues, have also publicly closed ranks behind Finland's commitment in Afghanistan. Halonen publicly rejected the idea of reducing the number of Finnish peacekeepers and the idea that Finland was in a war, while Vanhanen emphasized that the government had weighed the risks before sending troops: "There is a possibility of the situation worsening before the election. That is exactly why more troops were needed." ¶9. (SBU) The sole exception from within the government has been Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Vayrynen, who publicly called for the withdrawal of Finnish troops, although even he called for Finland to maintain its civilian development assistance in Afghanistan. Former President and Nobel Laureate Martti Ahtisaari cut through the war of words about whether Finland was at war, clearly pointing out the necessity of staying the course: "Afghanistan faces a situation where much of the country is ruled by groups that use terrorism as a weapon, fund their operations with the drug trade and favor widespread crime." He also reminded Finns that the world is watching them especially closely as they seek a rotating seat on the UN Security Council in 2013. ¶10. (SBU) Parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committees will debate Afghanistan policy later this month, and there will be a rare open plenary session on Afghanistan October ¶1. The last open debate on foreign policy was over a year ago following the Russian attack on Georgia. There is no decision regarding Afghanistan before the Parliament, but the debate will be an indicator of how strong the government backbenchers support Finland's current commitments. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) A strategy for Afghanistan that shows a path leading to Afghanis taking responsibility for their own security is what Finnish leaders would most like to see after seven years with Finnish troops and civilians deployed there. We assess that the Finnish government is strongly committed to staying the course in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, although it would be politically difficult to deploy additional troops or for the current election surge force to remain after the election. However, requests for additional forms of civilian support (for example, more police trainers) or more military assistance that does not involve more Finnish boots on the ground (such as training for OMLTs as well as Afghan personnel in Finland, projects which are already ongoing or planned) would certainly be considered. Such requests will be more palatable to them if they can be framed as part of a transition to the Afghan government taking more responsibility and as part of a team effort in which other European partners are also contributing more. ORECK