FINLAND: LEFT LOSES, POPULISTS GAIN IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000220 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV FI SUBJECT: FINLAND: LEFT LOSES, POPULISTS GAIN IN EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS REF: 08 HELSINKI 516 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. With losses for the political left and wins for fringe parties, the Finnish European Parliament elections echoed results across the EU. The populist and Euro-skeptic True Finns gained their first parliamentary seat, and their leader received the most votes of any candidate. The Greens were the only member of the four-party governing coalition to gain a seat. The two main coalition members, National Coalition Party (NCP) and Center Party, each lost one seat. The NCP leadership can comfort itself in the knowledge the NCP remains the most popular party in Finland. The Center Party's poor showing in the last few election cycles means party head Prime Minister Vanhanen might face a leadership challenge in the next party congress. The Social Democrats and Left Alliance, apparently struggling to find a message a new generation of leadership, each lost a seat. Overall, the results offer no dramatic surprises and generally follow trends seen across the last few election cycles. As a result, the dynamics within the governing coalition appear unlikely to change significantly. End Summary. Overview -------------- 2 (SBU) Finns turned out in low numbers for the latest European Parliament (EP) elections, dropping to 40.2 percent from 2004's 41.1 percent. Similar to last year's municipal elections (REF),the parties ran campaigns primarily on national domestic issues, not issues related to the Eropean Union; therefore, one might take election esults as an "official poll" of party standing to years before the next national parliamentary eections. Thse results for Finland's 13 seats, ncluding percentage of overall votes, are as folows: Governing Coalition: National Coalition Prty (NCP) - Lost 1, retaine 3 (23.2 percent) Center Party (CP) - Lost 1, retained 3 (19 percent) Green Party - Gained a second seat (12.4 percent) Swedish People's Party (SPP) - Retained its single seat (6.1 percent) Opposition: Social Democratic Party (SDP) - Lost 1, retained 2 (17.5 percent) Left Alliance - Lost their single seat (5.9 percent) True Finns/Christian Democrats - Gained two seats, one for each party (14 percent) Winners: True Finns and Greens -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The populist and Euro-skeptic True Finns added to their significant gains in last year's municipal elections by taking their first seat in the EP. Party leader Timo Soini was the top vote getter of the entire election (130,000). Soini received those votes despite declaring that he would not sit for a full term and would return to run in the next Finnish parliamentary elections in 2011. In meetings with Embassy staff, Finnish analysts and journalists attributed the TF's win to two things: the strength of Soini's personality, and the fact that the TF offered the only choice for Euro-skeptic voters. (NOTE: The Christian Democrats (CD) and TF both benefited from their temporary alliance (for the sole purpose of the EP elections),as separately neither might have attained a seat, but the CDs likely received the greater benefit from Soini's popularity. END NOTE.) ¶4. (SBU) The Greens were the only member of the four- party governing coalition to boast any gain. According to analysts, the Greens benefitted from the perceived strength of their slate of candidates, and the party's transnational, social-justice-oriented platform generally appeals to the pro-EU voters. Losers: NCP, Center, the political left -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Though the two largest members of the governing coalition - NCP and Center - each lost one seat, the NCP's loss carries less of a sting. The center-right NCP has been leading public opinion polls for months, and some pre-election polling hinted at a HELSINKI 00000220 002 OF 002 possible fourth seat for the NCP; even with the loss of one seat the NCP remains the most popular party in Finland. On the other hand, the CP continued its poor showings over the last several elections. Analysts predicted that a significant CP loss would significantly increase the chance that the CP would remove Prime Minister Vanhanen's as leader in next year's party congress. Remaining on par with NCP may not constitute such a serious loss, but the strength of Vanhanen's position remains uncertain. ¶6. (SBU) The parties of the left were by far the bigger losers, as the SDP fell farther behind its main competitors, NCP and CP, and the Left Alliance lost its only seat. Analysts pointed to both parties' difficulty finding a message that resonates with voters (even in an economic downturn) and fielding a younger generation of leaders. Certainly, the SDP's two successful candidates are atypical for the party: Mitro Repo (a defrocked Orthodox priest) ran under the SDP banner but is not a member, and Liisa Jaakonsaari is publicly pro-NATO. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) With losses for the political left and wins for fringe parties, the Finnish elections echoed results across the EU. The results offer no dramatic surprises and generally follow trends seen across the last few election cycles. As a result, the dynamics within the governing coalition appear unlikely to change significantly as a result of these elections. BUTLER