SCENESETTER FOR CODEL TANNER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000182 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON MARR NATO OREP FI SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL TANNER ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Embassy Helsinki welcomes you to Finland. Your visit comes as we celebrate ninety years of diplomatic relations with Finland. Those relations are excellent. The Finnish government places high importance on deepening transatlantic ties as it also promotes a stronger role for the EU in supporting global stability and security. The Finnish government sees no conflict in pursuing its security interests simultaneously through the EU, Nordic Defense Cooperation and NATO's Partnership for Peace. Finland maintains the option to pursue NATO membership, and as the national debate continues regarding membership Finland pursues greater interoperability with NATO forces. Most Finnish peacekeepers are abroad in NATO- led peacekeeping operations in the Balkans and Afghanistan. In Afghanistan Finland has committed to increases in troops, civilian trainers and development assistance. Finnish officials offer a unique perspective and expertise on their Russian neighbor. Foreign Minister Stubb has urged the West to re-engage with Russia as it undergoes a "complex transition" due to the global economic downturn. END SUMMARY. Political and Economic Overview -------------- ¶2. (SBU) This year we celebrate ninety years of diplomatic relations, and those relations are excellent. Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen and his Cabinet share responsibility for implementation of Finland's foreign policy with President Tarja Halonen. PM Vanhanen leads a four-party center-right coalition that has placed high importance on working through the European Union, deepening its partnership with NATO and strengthening transatlantic bonds. Finland holds parliamentary elections in 2011 and presidential elections in 2013. ¶3. (SBU) Finland's GDP growth slowed sharply towards the end of 2008, and estimates project a contraction of five percent in 2009. Other estimates project an increase in unemployment, up to nine percent in 2009 from 6.4 percent last year. The 200-member Parliament passed a supplemental budget this year, and the Government of Finland (GoF) estimates the stimulative impact of the current and supplementary budgets as approximately three billion euros (or 1.7 percent of GDP). A broad concept of security -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The GoF devotes most defense spending to Finland's territorial defense. It supports approximately 700 troops in overseas operations, and seeks a spending increase from 120M to 150M euros to support those operations. Finland maintains conscription. [NOTE: Defense Minister Hakamies has stated publicly that the economic downturn might delay implementation of proposed defense spending increases (2 percent above inflation after 2011). END NOTE.] ¶5. (SBU) Beyond strictly military concerns, the GoF has a broad concept of security that includes such threats as international crises and conflicts, natural disasters, climate change, terrorism and constraints on energy access. In addressing those threats Finland supports increased multilateral cooperation. FM Stubb has said Finland wants a "strong UN, a strong EU, a strong NATO ... and a strong OSCE." He does not see an "either-or" choice in pursuing greater security cooperation with NATO, the EU and Nordic countries. Finland and NATO -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Finland has participated in NATO's Partnership for Peace program (PfP) since 1994. In that time it has increased interoperability with NATO forces and participated in peacekeeping operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Afghanistan. Most Finnish peacekeepers serve in NATO-led operations. ¶7. (SBU) Current GoF policy holds that Finland maintains the option to pursue NATO membership. A review of successive GoF security policies reveals increasingly positive assessments of NATO membership. The GOF's 2009 defense and security white paper states that "strong grounds" exist for joining NATO. It also notes the importance of public support and political consensus for any decision on membership. FM Stubb has said the current government will not pursue membership, HELSINKI 00000182 002 OF 002 pointing to the need for continued public and parliamentary debate. A slight majority of the populace opposes membership. Nordic Defense Cooperation -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Finland holds the chairmanship for Nordic Defense Cooperation (NDC) in 2009. The GoF's goals include launching Nordic Supportive Defense Structures (NORDSUP) cooperation, and examining ways to support development of Africa's crisis management resources. Finland hosted Nordic Defense Ministers on May 12 and discussed NDC, including possibilities for cooperation in the High North. Finnish officials have positively, if carefully, received former Norwegian FM Thorvald Stoltenberg's independent report containing 13 proposals on NDC (presented to Nordic countries last February). Finnish officials focus on practical areas of cooperation like procurement, maintenance and upgrading materiel, and view other proposals such as a Nordic Solidarity declaration as more distant prospects. In May DM Hakamies publicly voiced reservations about Finland committing its Air Force to patrol Iceland's air space, citing the cost as well as political considerations in policing a NATO Member's air space. Comprehensive approach and Afghanistan -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Finland's participation in international peacekeeping operations dates back to the Sinai in the 1950s. Today the Finns pursue a "comprehensive approach" to international crisis management, seeking to utilize all resources - military and civilian, public and private - to best advantage. In describing Finland's international efforts, GoF officials point to participation in NATO nd UN-led operations as well as the efforts of Nbel Laureate and former President Martti Ahtisaari. ¶10. (SBU) Afghanistan, where Finland has provided military, civilianand development assistance since 2002, presents n opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of that comprehensive approach. Finland contribute troops (110) to the Swedish-led Provincial Recostruction Team in Mazar-e-Sharif, in the northern province of Balkh. In February the Parliament aproved a temporary doubling of troops to support upcoming presidential elections. The GoF also has approved increases in military and police trainers and development assistance. Russia and Finland -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Finland has a long border (800 miles) and even longer history with Russia, including two wars fought against the Soviet Union in the period 1939- ¶1944. Russia is Finland's largest trading partner, and its primary energy supplier. Finnish officials have carefully managed relations with its eastern neighbor, in part by focusing on bilateral, largely economic, issues. FM Stubb sees an opportunity in the "complex transition" underway in Russia due to the global economic downturn. In April the GoF issued its first "Russia Action Plan," which seeks a straightforward assessment of Russia's challenges and deficiencies as it promotes stronger relations bilaterally and through the EU. [NOTE: President Medvedev met with President Halonen on April 20 and Prime Minister Putin will visit Finland in late May. END NOTE.] BUTLER