FINLAND ON THE MAY GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000177 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 TAGS: EUN FI MARR PGOV PREL SUBJECT: FINLAND ON THE MAY GAERC REF: A. REF: MAY 9 ¶B. 2009 J. GIAUQUE EMAIL Classified By: Political Chief Scott Brandon for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The Finns doubt stronger language on Iran will issue from the May GAERC, given the lack of consensus regarding tougher sanctions. Though discussion within the EU has been limited, early signs are positive regarding continuation of Operation ATALANTA off the Horn of Africa. Signs are mixed, however, regarding continuation of Operation ALTHEA in Bosnia. The Finns no longer consider ALTHEA a military crisis management operation and plan to withdraw most troops in June; they acknowledge a lack of consensus on this within the EU, though their position may be gaining adherents. The GAERC provides the last opportunity for Member States to provide guidance in advance of the EU-Russia Summit; the Finns would like to see more vigorous attention to a successor to the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Russia. Some matters may be unripe for discussion at the GAERC, like the Middle East (given Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington) and Moldova (given upcoming elections). END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On May 14 Polchief met with the MFA Director for European Common Foreign and Security Policy Leena-Kaisa Mikkola to discuss the May GAERC agenda. Mikkola said the agenda would be more limited than usual, given the inclusion of a special meeting of Foreign and Defense Ministers. The Middle East is not on the agenda, and will be taken up later, after Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington. Mikkola also expressed disappointment with how the Czechs have been handling agenda items, saying that there is often limited clarity about what will be discussed. Highlights follow. ¶3. (C) IRAN: EU Member States (MS) have not arrived at a consensus regarding sanctions. The Finnish Government (GOF) "basically" agrees with the U.S. points (REF). According to Mikkola, "southern" MSs are reluctant to tighten sanctions. Mikkola expected that supporters of stronger language would not meet that objective. ¶4. (C) ATALANTA: Mikkola said the EU's Operation ATALANTA seemed to be working quite well, and the GOF is willing to continue cooperation. Discussion within the EU of an extension has not really begun. Mikkola does not expect much opposition to an extension, given MSs' interest in unhindered shipping. Early signs are positive, "even from Germany," Mikkola added. How the EU might address instability in Somalia itself is the tougher question. Mikkola said some discussions on the matter had taken place within the Council, but she did not know whether the Foreign and Defense Ministers would address it at the GAERC. ¶5. (C) EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT: The GAERC will provide the last chance to give guidance before the upcoming Summit. Mikkola expects the main focus of the Summit will be the financial crisis, with the EU underlining that protectionism will not provide a solution. The Finns would like to see a "renewed impetus" on a successor to the current Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. ¶6. (C) MOLDOVA: Mikkola had not heard any discussion of an EU-led investigation into the April 7 violence, but knew of limited discussions pointing to the importance of a role for the Council of Europe in any investigation. She did not expect in-depth discussion of Moldova, as the more appropriate time would be after the Presidential election later this month. ¶7. (C) BOSNIA/ALTHEA OPERATION: Mikkola said that the GOF differs from the U.S. on Operation ALTHEA. The Finns no longer view it as a military crisis management operation. They believe the mission should come to a close and the EU should focus on training and mentoring. Mikkola said some within the EU have complained of "sudden withdrawals." The Finns believe their decision to withdraw all but 3-5 troops in June is not sudden and has long been known. Mikkola said that at one time their position was in the clear minority in the EU. That has changed, and she estimated it more at 50-50 or above for their position. Mikkola acknowledged the EU remains far from a consensus on this point. ¶8. (C) GEORGIA: Mikkola expressed doubts about the OSCE continuing its mission. She said the EU must consider continuation of its role and mission in light of the problems confronting the OSCE mission, adding that discussion has not started. Mikkola said that beyond these missions the EU must consider how to bring Georgia and the EU closer. The GOF strongly favors pursuing "visa facilitation," trade liberalization and an Association Agreement. Mikkola said the EU must do morethan simply signing papers with the Georgians, they must take actions that show concrete progress. BUTLER