FIDEL BLAMES U.S. (BUT NOT PRESIDENT OBAMA) FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000444 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR CU SUBJECT: FIDEL BLAMES U.S. (BUT NOT PRESIDENT OBAMA) FOR HONDURAS COUP REF: CARACAS 904 Classified By: COM Jonathan Farrar for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: After several months of confusion over how to react to the election of President Obama, Fidel Castro seems to have latched on to the coup in Honduras for a more comfortable explanation: President Obama may be all right, but U.S. policy is being run by Bush Administration holdovers who run the Defense and State Departments. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In a July 17 Reflexiones piece published in all the official newspapers in Cuba, former President Fidel Castro outlined his explanation of how the U.S., more specifically Bush Administration appointees in the State Department and the Pentagon, orchestrated the coup in Honduras. Castro cited Ambassadors Llorens, MacFarland, Callahan and Charge Blau for having "thick files of activities against Cuba" and for having worked under John Negroponte and Otto Reich, whom he fingered as masterminds of the coup. According to Fidel, these same forces were managing the effort at a negotiated settlement, which he described as simply an attempt to buy time for the coup plotters. In a side comment, Castro alluded to the Pentagon's need to keep control of the base at Soto Cano as part of its plan to ring Venezuela with five U.S. military bases. He also hinted at part of the problem by noting that the idea of the Costa Rica talks came about when President Obama was otherwise engaged in Russia, implying that the President might not have been aware of the decision process. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Our best response to Fidel's Reflexiones articles continues to be to make no response. Fidel's written efforts had become more sporadic and schizophrenic over the past few months. He has alternated between snide attacks on President Obama and backhanded compliments. It seemed for quite a while that he could not quite come to grips with the "factor Obama" as it is known in Cuba. Whatever Castro may have thought, the President is very popular among ordinary Cubans and the kind of no-holds-barred slander the Comandante is accustomed to using in addressing U.S. leaders might have backfired on him. This presented the Comandante with a conundrum since a great deal of his legitimacy rests on being staunchly anti-U.S. The Honduras crisis appears to have given him new life. It is clear that the GOC saw Zelaya's removal as a serious blow to Cuba's regional policy. It has moved quickly to try to find a way to take advantage of developments in Honduras and salvage as much as possible. However, the fact that the initial GOC reaction to the coup coincided with our own was likely very hard to take, especially for Fidel Castro. However, always the careful tactician, Fidel seems to have found a way to benefit from the situation irrespective of the outcome. He can posit comfortably that President Obama may agree with Cuba about Honduras, but he does not control the State and Defense Departments, which continue to carry out the policies of the Bush administration. That way, "the Empire" can still be fully at fault, and he does not have to take the risk of criticizing President Obama personally. It is no coincidence that Cuba's ALBA allies have picked up very much the same line (reftel). FARRAR