EU DIPLOMATS DISCUSS CHANGES IN CUBA, THE UNITED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 000100 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2019 TAGS: PHUM PREL CU EC EU SUBJECT: EU DIPLOMATS DISCUSS CHANGES IN CUBA, THE UNITED STATES, AND EUROPE REF: A. HAVANA 80 ¶B. HAVANA 88 HAVANA 00000100 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: COM Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Future change agents in Cuba will not come from civil society but from the civil service, argued a group of seasoned European diplomats. During a wide-ranging discussion, eight European colleagues inquired about possible changes to U.S. regulations on travel and remittances, urged the United States to call Raul Castro's bluff regarding direct talks, and expressed their discouragement with the extent to which Cuba was able to control the UN Periodic Review on Human Rights process (septel). All thought that the much delayed Communist Party Congress would play a significant role in determining and/or publicizing any potential changes in economic or political direction by the Government of Cuba (GOC),but there was debate over whether the Congress scheduled for late-2009 would actually take place this year. END SUMMARY. -------------- CHANGE AGENTS IN CUBA? -------------- ¶2. (C) DCM hosted a lunch on February 11 with his counterparts from Bulgaria, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, France (previous president of the European Union),the Czech Republic (current EU president),and Sweden (future EU president). While they all said they would continue to meet with civil society groups, old and new, they did not believe that current prominent members of civil society would play a significant role in a potential transition. The Spanish Minister Counselor noted, however, that he was impressed by the new coalition of notable dissidents formed by Oswaldo Paya (Ref A). In addition, he said it was encouraging that some of the more political dissidents were getting more involved in civil society related activities (i.e. hurricane relief) while other civil society members seemed to be getting more involved in political subjects (Dagoberto Valdes and Yoani Sanchez). He surmised that the blending of the two should create a more vibrant and effective civil society. ¶3. (C) In response to a question by the DCM, the Dutch Counselor argued that the Cuban civil service will be more effective change agents than civil society. They admitted, however, that the Government of Cuba tightly controls access to all potential key contacts, even for the most routine matters. The Spanish diplomat said that even after their many rapprochements since 2005, the Cuban Government remains upset about the European response to the 2003 crackdown on civil society. Cuban civil servants have nothing to gain from meeting with a foreign diplomat from any western country. The diplomats expect the Cuban Government to introduce and discuss at least possible economic reforms at the Sixth Congress of the Cuban Communist Party scheduled for late-2009. However, the Italian Counselor said he believes the congress will be delayed past the end of 2009 for two reasons: 1) Fidel Castro is still alive; and 2) the Cubans are yet to begin the usual nation wide process of consultations that normally start at least one year before such an event. The Spanish Minister Counselor and others disagreed and argued that Cuba has in fact started the consultation process both in private and as part of the national dialogue promoted by Raul Castro in early 2008. -------------- CHANGES IN U.S. POLICY? -------------- ¶4. (C) In response to a frequently asked question, we reiterated the Obama Administration's campaign pledge and Secretary Clinton's congressional testimony regarding the intention to loosen restrictions on travel and remittances HAVANA 00000100 002.2 OF 002 for Cuban-Americans. The French Counselor asked whether the Cubans would be ready for an influx of U.S. travelers given the poor state of the current airport terminal used to receive charter travel to and from the United States. (Note: Construction at this terminal in the past two weeks has doubled the number of immigration booths and computerized customs operations. End Note.) The Spanish Minister Counselor noted that travel from Europe continues to decline with only a few exceptions (Poland and Russia). The Czech diplomat added that while the overall number of tourists in 2008 increased (mainly due to an increase in Canadian tourists),her travels to Viales in Pinar del Rio indicate that some of the state-run restaurants that cater to tourists and even one of the two main hotels are closing due to a lack of business. ¶5. (C) The Italian Counselor recommended the new U.S. Administration call Raul Castro's bluff for direct talks, either at a high level or at a more technical level. The Spanish diplomat said further U.S. engagement is critical for any potential growth and stability in the Cuban economy, recognizing that the possible entrance of U.S. business may not be in Spain's best commercial interest. The Swedish Minister Counselor said the Cuban economy is in dire condition, noting that Sweden no longer sells anything to Cuba because the Cubans are not paying. In addition, agreements signed with China and Russia in the past few months are unlikely to become fruitful due to the international financial downturn. When asked what the European Union had to show for their engagement with Cuba, the Spanish diplomat said that there had been some political prisoners released since 2005, but the process has been much slower than everyone had hoped. -------------- CHANGES IN EU POLICY? -------------- ¶6. (C) All the European diplomats agreed that Cuba still needs to do "something" before the European Union's June review. Recommendations ranged from releasing political prisoners, opening up travel, or even introducing significant economic reforms. However, no one around the table could point to any indication of whether or what the GOC might try to do to appease the Europeans. Neither would anyone speculate as to what the European Union would do if Cuba did nothing. FARRAR