AMBASSADOR RAY'S VISIT WITH SOUTH AFRICAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000998

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI SF
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR RAY'S VISIT WITH SOUTH AFRICAN
AMBASSADOR TO ZIM

Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 B,D


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The key issues for South Africa in
Zimbabwe are political stability and economic
stability/recovery. Problems in the way of that stem from
ZANU-PF's inability to manage its own internal cohesion.
There needs to be more coordination of all donors in
Zimbabwe. Engagement with all parties here is crucial, as is
security sector reform (SSR). U.S. support for SSR is
important, but there must be no U.S. fingerprints on the
process. Failure of SSR could be catastrophic. END SUMMARY.

2. (SBU) I met with South African Ambassador Mlungisi
Makalima at his embassy on December 18. Under the previous
administration in Pretoria, he was not always informed of his
own government's actions regarding Zimbabwe, and had been
reluctant to have too much contact with us. Under President
Zuma, he seems to be better tied into what is going on, and
said that he would like more frequent contact and
coordination. South Africa's key issues in Zimbabwe are to
see a return to political and economic stability. In
addition, RSA would like to see economic recovery. A
prosperous Zimbabwe is a linchpin in the region, he said, and
likewise, if the country is an economic failure, it
negatively impacts the region. The Zimbabwean economy is
also important to South Africa bilaterally, and politically,
as they would like to see a reduction in the flow of people
southward.

3. (C) Makalima said that one of the impediments to
political progress has been the failure of ZANU-PF to manage
its internal cohesion well. There is a lot of disaffection
within the party, making it difficult to get a coordinated
response, and this has given the hardliners the upper hand.
He said he was taken aback at the resolutions that came out
of the recently-concluded party congress. Some of them
seemed a clear slap at South Africa. One must, however,
learn to read between the lines of pronouncements from
ZANU-PF, he said. It is likely the resolutions were meant to
placate party hardliners. The problem, according to
Makalima, is that ZANU-PF seems to lack vision and direction.
This is creating internal problems that will some day come
back to haunt Mugabe and the other senior leadership.

4. (C) There is a need for broader coordination among all
countries involved here to avoid conflict and duplication of
projects. Makalima said that he would like very much to have
closer contact with the U.S. and EU heads of mission to see
where we can work better together. (COMMENT: We have
approached the German Ambassador, who currently chairs the EU
plus donor group known as the Fishmongers, and he agrees in
principle to more contact. END COMMENT). Makalima noted,
for instance, that South Africa has had only minimal
involvement in creating the Multi Donor Trust Fund (MDTF),
and it probably should be more involved. (COMMENT: At the
last Fishmonger meeting, there was discussion of South Africa
contributing to the MDTF, but concern on the part of some of
Qcontributing to the MDTF, but concern on the part of some of
the EU ambassadors that this would mean they would want to
have a significant role in the decision process. The
consensus seemed to be that South Africa's priorities differ
from the EU and this would not be a good thing. END
COMMENT). I mentioned to Makalima that there needed to be
coordination of priorities, especially regarding
infrastructure development projects, and he agreed that this
is essential. He did not commit, however, to any substantial
change in his country's priorities, which, at the end of the
day will continue to be those that support South Africa's own
domestic economy.

5. (C) The donor countries must have broader engagement with
all parties in Zimbabwe, Makalima said, as they must all be
part of any solution to the country's problems. While we
must continue to strengthen the democratic opposition, it is
crucial that we find ways to engage productively with
ZANU-PF; in particular to identify potential reform-minded
moderates within the party. Security sector reform is
absolutely essential, as without it, there is little chance
of political or economic reforms being sustainable. In this,

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he said, we must also engage all parties. Failure of
security sector reform could cause unimaginable chaos which
would threaten the stability of the entire region. U.S.
support for security reform is important, but there should be
no U.S. fingerprints on the program to avoid arousing the
suspicions of and possible disruption from hardliners in
ZANU-PF who continue to believe our main aim is regime
change.

6. (C) COMMENT: Makalima is absolutely correct in his view
that donors here need to better coordinate their efforts.
The major donors (Fishmongers) mean well, but often seem
suspicious of the motives of donors like South Africa and
China. They also operate out of force of habit. For their
parts, countries like South Africa and China have not done
much to change the situation. We are quietly trying to pull
all these components together to see if we can change a
static situation in Zimbabwe for the better. While more
contact with these "peripheral" embassies might not work, it
can't hurt. END COMMENT.
RAY