MUGABE AND ZANU-PF BURY HEADS AND DIG IN HEELS AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000976 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B. WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI SUBJECT: MUGABE AND ZANU-PF BURY HEADS AND DIG IN HEELS AT PARTY CONGRESS Classified By: Ambassador Charles Ray for reason 1.4 (b). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) ZANU-PF concluded its five-year Congress on December 13 by reelecting President Robert Mugabe to another term, as well as completing the appointments of Joice Mujuru and John Nkomo as Vice Presidents, and Simon Khaya Moyo as Party Chairman. Though rumors of party discontent abounded, no challenges arose from the estimated 5,000 delegates attending the five-day event held in Harare. The party used the Congress to attempt to quell party discontent, and blame western sanctions and the MDC for ZANU-PF's poor performance in last year,s elections. ¶2. (SBU) Several resolutions referenced South Africa's role as the SADC-designated Facilitator and sought to encourage President Jacob Zuma's team to adopt a more patient and ZANU-friendly approach. Mugabe also raised the possibility of holding elections earlier than anticipated and warned the MDC not to attempt to interfere with security forces. END SUMMARY. -------------- 800 Pound Succession Gorilla Goes Unnoticed -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Setting aside the usual speculative discussion that the Congress might raise the issue of Mugabe's successor, the party unanimously elected Robert Mugabe to another five-year term as Party President and First Secretary. The party also made official the elections of Joice Mujuru and John Nkomo as Vice Presidents and Second Secretaries, and Simon Khaya Moyo as Party National Chairman. ¶4. (SBU) Despite rumors of party discontent, no challenges to party leadership arose from the floor. However, the failure to elevate Administrative Secretary Didymus Mutasa to the presidium )- the top four party positions -) angered many of the delegates from Manicaland who felt they had been disadvantaged by Mugabe's continued adherence to the Unity Accords precedent of reserving two of these positions for Ndebeles. The Mutasa snub brought about the protest resignation of Manicaland Provincial Chairman Basil Nyabadza, while Emmerson Mnangagwa's camp of Karangas in Masvingo and Midlands provinces also felt slighted. -------------- MDC and West in ZANU-PF,s Crosshairs -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Both President Mugabe's remarks at the Congress and the Party's published resolutions blamed factionalism within the party, Western-imposed sanctions, and the MDC for ZANU-PF's poor performance in the 2008 elections. In the face of these challenges, Mugabe strongly criticized party divisions that were undermining cohesion and support. The party also resolved not to entertain any negotiating concessions with the MDC without concurrently resolving its priorities of lifting sanctions, banning the broadcast of Studio 7, VOA, and other "pirate" radio stations, and ending western funding of the "parallel government" )- ZANU-PF Qwestern funding of the "parallel government" )- ZANU-PF speak for MDC-led government ministries and institutions such as the Prime Minister's office. -------------- Mugabe on Elections and Security Forces -------------- HARARE 00000976 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) During Mugabe's closing remarks, the President raised the possibility of elections being held before the next anticipated elections in 2013. Specifically he stated, "Elections are not very far off. The inclusive government was given a short life )- 18 months, 24 months -) and then it goes. The remaining part is very short. Perhaps it has outlived its life." (COMMENT: The vagaries surrounding when elections will be held are in part due to the omission in the Global Political Agreement (GPA) of any discussion of the lifespan of the inclusive government. END COMMENT.) ¶7. (SBU) Mugabe and the party resolutions also warned the MDC to steer clear of any attempts to push for reform of the security forces, and reiterated that the military, police, and CIO are inextricably linked to ZANU-PF. "ZIPRA and ZANLA (the respective military wings of PF-ZAPU and ZANU-PF that fought for independence) forces constitute the basis of our national army and AIR force. That is the most dependable force and it shall not be tampered with." -------------- Be Patient with us Mr. Zuma -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In an appeal to South African President Zuma to adopt former President Mbeki,s conciliatory "quiet diplomacy" approach to Zimbabwe, one of the ZANU-PF resolutions issued by the Congress stated that the South African Facilitation Team should continue with the same "diligence, patience, and understanding that the Zimbabwe issue has delicate, sensitive, and fundamental concerns on both sides that cannot be resolved overnight." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Mugabe invoked the usual specters of western imperialism and sanctions in a bid to unify the party in the face of well-reported party divisions. He also, as expected, succeeded in eliminating any challenges from delegates to earlier decisions of the Politburo selecting Mujuru, Nkomo, and Moyo for election to the presidium. The resolution that ZANU-PF would not yield on GPA outstanding issues until sanctions, pirate radio stations, and the funding of the parallel government are dealt with represents posturing but may also contribute to ZANU-PF foot-dragging in negotiations. Similarly, Mugabe's forecast of elections within 18 to 24 months seems more a ploy to rally the party than a statement of intention. ¶10. (C) Despite the orchestrated Congress, ZANU-PF is an old party with problems. As reflected in the resolutions which mostly attacked the West and the MDC, it has no vision of the future. By foreclosing a democratic process to elect leaders, the Karanga and Manyika sub-Shona ethnic groups are resentful of the leadership; the resignation of the Manicaland Provincial Chairman Basil Nyabadza is but one manifestation of this. And without the benefit of Gideon Gono's printing presses, the party reportedly had trouble raising money for the Congress. It would not be surprising Qraising money for the Congress. It would not be surprising to see ZANU-PF escalate its rhetoric on western imperialism and sanctions to divert attention from its internal problems. RAY