BULAWAYO'S SUPPORT FOR MDC-T GROWING; ECONOMIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000938 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B. WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT G/TIP FOR R. YOUSEY AND J. SIGMON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR M. GAVIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ELAB ECON KDEM ASEC ZI SUBJECT: BULAWAYO'S SUPPORT FOR MDC-T GROWING; ECONOMIC HARDSHIP CONTINUES Classified By: Ambassador Charles A. Ray for reasons 1.4 (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During a recent visit to Bulawayo, we met with representatives from a number of civic organizations to take the political and social temperature in this anti-ZANU-PF stronghold. We were pleasantly surprised that civic groups have experienced significantly less harassment since the formation of the inclusive government. Tensions on the street and in offices were noticeably less than in Harare. Throughout our conversations, it was evident that Zimbabweans in Ndebele-dominated western Zimbabwe remain disenchanted with ZANU-PF, and trust neither the recently-revived ZAPU party nor Arthur Mutambara's MDC-M. Increasingly, residents are developing more confidence in MDC-T, although some are still uncertain if they can trust a party led by a Shona, Morgan Tsvangirai. While political negotiations grind along, residents are most concerned about economic hardship caused by dollarization of wages, randification of prices, and factory slowdowns that have left many without paychecks in several months. END SUMMARY. -------------- Gukurahundi Bitterness Resulted in Tribally-Driven Political Loyalty -------------- ¶2. (C) During a trip to Bulawayo November 24-26, we visited with numerous civil society leaders to discuss ongoing issues in Matabeleland and the local perspective on national politics. Most residents of the ethnic-Ndebele stronghold of Bulawayo never trusted ZANU-PF or Robert Mugabe. For many, that distrust turned into bitter hatred during the Gukurahundi massacres in the early 1980s. (NOTE: The Gukurahundi massacres were carried out by the notorious Fifth Brigade of the Zimbabwean National Army, led by Air Marshal Perence Shiri, to root out "insurgents" in 1982-1985. Trained by the North Korean army, the Fifth Brigade killed around 20,000 Zimbabweans, almost all Ndebele, in Matabeleland North and South and Midlands provinces. END NOTE.) Since the Ndebele-dominated ZAPU merged with Mugabe's ZANU in 1987, only to be "swallowed" by ZANU, as some say, that distrust and hatred has been directed at ZANU-PF. We were surprised that, 25 years after Gukurahundi, many of our interlocutors continue to refer to it with seemingly fresh anger and bitterness at wounds that were never healed. Apart from the pain of the loss of loved ones, they remember that security officials refused to allow many families to hold memorial ceremonies for their relatives who were killed in Gukurahundi. ¶3. (C) With the formation of the MDC in 2000, the Ndebele-dominated provinces of Matabeleland North and South and Bulawayo have increasingly voted for opposition candidates. After Arthur Mutambara, Welshman Ncube, and others (mostly Ndebele) split from MDC to form the pro-Senate faction of the MDC (later headed by Mutambara) in 2005, many Qfaction of the MDC (later headed by Mutambara) in 2005, many Ndebele supported the faction, largely on ethnic lines. In the March 2008 presidential and parliamentary elections, most voters supported Tsvangirai and MDC-Tsvangirai parliamentary candidates, although a number of MDC-Mutambara parliamentary candidates were elected. The Mutambara faction did not field a presidential candidate, and Simba Makoni, supported for president by the Mutambara faction, officially received 8 percent of the vote. Mugabe and ZANU-PF candidates received a relatively small percentage of the vote. One political analyst at the NGO Radio Dialogue, described this as evidence HARARE 00000938 002 OF 003 that people in rural areas of Matabeleland will vote for "anyone" other than Robert Mugabe. -------------- Consolidate Behind Tsvangirai to "Get Rid of the Old Man" -------------- ¶4. (C) When we asked about support for Dumiso Dabengwa's revived ZAPU party, formed by a handful of original ZAPU leaders who broke away from ZANU-PF earlier this year, some laughed, some sighed, and none had anything nice to say about ZAPU's political future. Anastacia Moyo, director of the influential NGO Bulawayo Agenda, said ZAPU was nothing more than a few "disgruntled old men" who were interested in material gain from starting a new party. She said they have few members and little support from the people. The director of Radio Dialogue, Father Nigel Johnson, described ZAPU's leadership as "leftover old farts" and "opportunists." Reason Ngwenya, the chairman of the Bulawayo Progressive Residents Association (BPRA),said residents in their monthly meetings in Bulawayo's 29 different wards have expressed concerns that ZAPU may actually be a ZANU-PF creation designed to sap support for MDC-T. All dismissed ZAPU as a tired relic from the past without a future. ¶5. (C) Turning the discussion to Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara and his faction, civic leaders had even fewer kind words. Ngwenya predicted that Mutambara's faction won't even maintain its current 10 seats in parliament in the next election. He and others questioned why MDC-M cabinet officials had been appointed after losing their parliamentary elections (for example, Minister for Regional Trade and Integration Priscilla Mishairabwi-Mushonga and Minister of Industry and Commerce Welshman Ncube). When Mutambara ejected four popular MPs from the party earlier this year, reportedly for voting with MDC-T, many in Matabeleland questioned Mutambara's motives and came to believe that perhaps Mutambara was secretly supportive of ZANU-PF. Moyo told us that people distrusted Mutambara because he ran his party without consulting his members, citing the ejected MPs as evidence of his 'dictatorial' behavior. All agreed the ejected MPs would likely win their seats when they run as independent candidates -- if and when a by-election is held. ¶6. (C) In commenting on ZAPU and MDC-M, most argued that now is not the time for more factionalism and that those in opposition to ZANU-PF should get behind Morgan Tsvangirai. Moyo told us that it's not yet time for another party. Ngwenya agreed and said that it is important to have one nationwide party to have a forceful opposition to President Mugabe and ZANU-PF. They opined that perhaps once Mugabe is dead, there would be room for other political parties. -------------- Calm Prevails Over the Peaceful, Clean City -------------- ¶7. (C) In stark contrast to many political civic groups in Q7. (C) In stark contrast to many political civic groups in Harare, no one in Bulawayo provided us with special instructions for visiting their offices (e.g. one NGO in Harare asks us to not park an embassy vehicle in front of its building when we visit),and few had the tight security typical of controversial civics in Harare. In general, a peaceful calm seemed to prevail in our meetings and on the streets. We didn't see any police roadblocks in town or much of a security presence at all, a pleasant contrast from Harare. Bulawayans are proud of their city and have maintained significant control over it. Importantly, HARARE 00000938 003 OF 003 Bulawayo never ceded control of its water supply to the national parastatal, the Zimbabwe National Water Authority (ZINWA). Consequently, the decay and neglect that ZINWA wreaked on other cities' water supply did not affect Bulawayo. Although Bulawayo still has water problems (the pumping capacity from the reservoir is inadequate for demand),residents have more reliable water supplies than in Harare and they are more willing to pay their bills. BPRA officials told us that residents often negotiate payment plans for their water if they can't pay the full bill, an arrangement officials take great pains to accommodate. In contrast, hundreds of residents in Harare have had their water unceremoniously cut off for lack of payment. -------------- Under Blanket of Calm, Economic Hardship Prevails -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Given Bulawayo's proximity to and close economic ties with South Africa, it is not surprising that the South African rand is widely accepted currency. However, some accuse local businesses of manipulating the exchange rate to boost profits, eroding the purchasing power of salaries paid in U.S. dollars. Percy Mcijo, the regional director of the national labor organization the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU),told us that local shops price goods in rand and then charge customers in U.S. dollars based on a sliding exchange rate. In our encounters around town, we saw exchange rates that varied between 5 and 10 rand to the dollar, with most charging 7.5 rand for one U.S. dollar, which is about right. ¶9. (SBU) Despite Bulawayo's historic importance as a center for industry, many once-vibrant local companies are struggling. Mcijo told us that workers at several local factories were striking after not receiving wages for three months. At Mespin, a local textile company, workers were campaigning for local companies to buy Mespin's products rather than foreign-made textiles. Mespin workers, who make roughly USD 150 per month, hadn't been paid in three months. At National Blankets, a factory Mcijo said was partially owned by ZANU-PF, workers hadn't been paid in three months either. A municipal librarian attending an embassy-organized training session also reported he hadn't received his salary in several months. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Bulawayo has long stood in contrast to Harare, both ethnically and politically. As time goes on, it will be interesting to see if the Ndebele, understandably leery of Shona politicians, will come to wholeheartedly back Tsvangirai or if they will parse their votes among smaller Anybody-But-ZANU-PF parties with an eye towards supporting Ndebele candidates. The calm and relative normalcy that has re-emerged in Bulawayo is encouraging and also serves as an example of what a city can do when it refuses to accept unacceptable national initiatives, like its refusal to allow Qunacceptable national initiatives, like its refusal to allow ZINWA to control the water supply. The economic hardships and unpaid wages at once-thriving companies are a reminder that as Zimbabwe's economy collapsed, many businesses have remained unprepared to deal with the new challenges of dollarization and foreign competition. END COMMENT. RAY