AMBASSADOR'S COURTESY CALL ON NORWEGIAN AMBASSADOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000928 SIPDIS AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S COURTESY CALL ON NORWEGIAN AMBASSADOR TO ZIM Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Norwegian ambassador Gunnar Foreland, an experienced Africa hand, provided Ambassador Ray his insights on Zimbabwe. Foreland discussed the interplay of Shona and Western culture and the role ethnicity plays in the relationship between President Robert Mugabe and President Jacob Zuma of South Africa, the relationship of Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono and Grace Mugabe to President Robert Mugabe, and the importance of security sector reform. Finally, Foreland concluded that ZANU-PF has no clear succession plan as Mugabe continues to play off factions against each other. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On November 25, I had an interesting one-on-one conversation with Gunnar Foreland, Ambassador of Norway to Zimbabwe. A long time observer of the Africa scene with vast experience on the continent, Foreland said we in the West often fail to appreciate the way the indigenous culture merges with Western culture to shape the behavior of people here. He said, for instance, in Zimbabwe, the dominant Shona culture often exists side by side with Western culture and locals see no conflict. Many Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) agencies and officials switch between the two whenever it is to their advantage. He thinks that Tsvangirai's deference to Mugabe, for instance, is rooted in Shona culture: respect for elders and respect for a fellow Shona. The ethnic factor also plays a role in the attitude of South African President Zuma toward Mugabe. In addition to not being a 'revolutionary comrade' as Thabo Mbeki was, Zuma, being Zulu, does not have the same sense of kinship with Mugabe, a Shona. |QQl(LeQrKbOxQed to treat Mugabe as a head of state at the recent SADC conference, dealing with him instead as just the head of a party. This was so different from the way Mbeki treated him that Mugabe was reportedly quite shaken by the experience. ¶3. (C) In terms of who has President Mugabe's ear and who wields the most influence on him, Foreland said that many don't appreciate the role played by Grace Mugabe. She acts as a kind of gatekeeper, often controlling who sees him, and what information gets to him. In this, she is assisted by Gono who acts as Mugabe's bag man and who has played a critical role in most of Grace's 'businesses.' Foreland believes that eventually Mugabe will move Gono from the RBZ post, probably to the Office of the President, but this won't happen until after the ZANU-PF Congress in mid-December because Mugabe doesn't want to go into the Congress looking weak or as if he has bowed to external pressure. He added as a footnote that the rescheduling of the Congress was due, he believes, primarily to lack of funding. Even though ZANU-PF puts pressure on local business to provide in-kind support for their meetings, they were unable to amass enough to hold it on schedule. There is also the problem, he added, that internally, ZANU-PF is in a bit of disarray as various factions jockey for position. In addition to the Mujuru and Mnangagwa factions, there is what he terms the 'loose' faction which counts Gono, Minister of Transportation Nicholas Goche, and others as members. He predicts that this group will have even greater influence in the future. Mugabe, in the meantime, continues to skillfully play each faction against the other, while he waits to see who will Qfaction against the other, while he waits to see who will rise to the top. ¶4. (C) Security sector reform is an absolute essential prerequisite to political reform in Zimbabwe, according to Foreland. Until the problem of the security chiefs is solved, there is no way to guarantee democracy in this country. Foreland noted that a group of locals, including some white Zimbabweans who fought against the Ian Smith regime, is working the issue. (NOTE: Some ex-liberation combatants, both black and white, have formed the Zimbabwe Peace and Security Programme (www.zpsp.org) to work on security sector reform with ZANU-PF, MDC, and the military and police. Initial stages of the project are funded by Swedepeace. END NOTE.) Foreland said that this initiative will take some time to work, but he is optimistic about its eventual success. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Foreland is the first Western ambassador to whom I have spoken who did not mention sanctions. In a Fishmonger Heads of Mission's meeting soon after I arrived, he was the ambassador who publicly accused the EU of being 'soft' on Zimbabwe regarding suspension from the Kimberly Process, and though he does not make strong public statements often, supports a continued tough line with ZANU-PF. He is HARARE 00000928 002 OF 002 not against engaging them, but is not at all convinced that the top layer of the current leadership is capable of true reform. END COMMENT. RAY