TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS ON PLANS, CONCERNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000091 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B.WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS ON PLANS, CONCERNS REF: HARARE 85 Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) A confident but realistic Morgan Tsvangirai briefed OECD ambassadors in the late afternoon of February 5 immediately after a meeting with Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe and shortly after the House of Assembly had passed Amendment 19 by a vote of 184-0. He left no doubt that he will be sworn in on February 11, but was less certain that all outstanding issues would be resolved by then. Most of the briefing focused on his plans as prime minister. He plans to initiate a 100-day plan at the beginning of March, after consulting with ministers, auditing ministries, and getting staff in place; priorities are restoring basic freedoms, humanitarian support, and economic stabilization. While acknowledging donor support would have to be based on progress on political and economic reform, Tsvangirai also said it was important to begin paying civil servants--military, police, government workers, and teachers--in forex as soon as possible. Tsvangirai said that the MDC as part of government must "budget" for ZANU-PF obstructionism, but he expressed confidence that there was a "collective will" to make the government work. END SUMMARY. -------------- Outstanding Issues -------------- ¶2. (C) Tsvangirai told the Ambassador earlier in the day (Ref) that Amendment 19 would not be passed until early next week to exert leverage to resolve other issues before then. But he announced at the briefing that the Amendment had passed the House of Assembly earlier in the day by a vote of 184-0. (COMMENT: We take the early passage as a clear intention on Tsvangirai's part to be sworn in on February 11, regardless of the status of other issues. END COMMENT.) ¶3. (SBU) Tsvangirai reiterated (Ref) that the parties had agreed to a 5-4-1 formula for allocation of governorships. The party--ZANU-PF or MDC-T--that did not get 5 would be entitled to an additional minister for state without portfolio. He hoped there would be early agreement and that the new governors could be sworn in on February 13 with ministers. ¶4. (SBU) The National Security Bill will be presented to Parliament today, according to Tsvangirai, with passage expected on February 9. ¶5. (SBU) Discussing abductees, Tsvangirai said "they must be released." He added that the Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) would meet on February 7 to further discuss the issue. JOMIC had already agreed that all detainees should be released. -------------- Priorities -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Tsvangirai told the group that as prime minister he had three priorities: --Restoring freedoms and healing. This includes a process to draft and enact a new constitution; legislative reform, including repeal or amendment of repressive legislation; and liberalizing the media. HARARE 00000091 002 OF 003 --Humanitarian support. This includes education, health, food distribution; and, above all, payments to civil servants--military, police, teachers, and government workers--in forex by March 1. Tsvangirai did not say where forex payments would come from. --Stabilization. The three parties must agree on how to tackle fundamental economic problems, including hyperinflation, in order to staunch the bleeding. There must be consensus on a government that is transparent and honest and a move away from a culture of entitlement (read ZANU-PF officials) and impunity. ¶7. (SBU) Commenting that Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) governor Gideon Gono had become a "liability" who continues to violate laws, Tsvangirai said that his first order of business will be to replace Gono. He criticized the budget presented to Parliament last week by Acting Minister of Finance Patrick Chinamasa, particularly the classification of diamonds, platinum, and minerals as "strategic reserve assets" to be overseen by the RBZ. He said that the new MDC finance minister would have to put forward a reasonable three-month budget. -------------- Managing Expectations and Partners -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The country is on its knees, stated Tsvangirai. Education, health, and industrial capacity have collapsed. With the MDC in government, Zimbabweans would expect a change of direction and immediate improvement in the delivery of services. There would not be an immediate turn around and it would be up to him and his team to manage expectations. Tsvangirai was confident that as the government moved forward, people would realize it was on the right course. ¶9. (SBU) Tsvangirai said donor assistance would be important. The MDC realized it would have to meet donor benchmarks to earn confidence in order to receive assistance. He noted there were skeptics, both internally and externally who did not believe the ZANU-PF-MDC marriage would last. "It will last," he averred, but reiterated that the MDC would have to earn trust. ¶10. (SBU) Tsvangirai continued that SADC and civil society had important roles. SADC as the guarantor of the agreement would have to ensure that the parties carried out their commitments under the agreement. Civil society should continue its role as an advocate for democratic reform and should engage the government and MDC in robust debate on the way forward. -------------- "Budgeting" for ZANU-PF -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Turning to ZANU-PF and Mugabe, Tsvangirai said he had just met with the Zimbabwean president. While not going into detail about the meeting, he said he had told Mugabe that he was responsible for Zimbabwe's predicament and his cooperation was necessary to begin to turn the country around. He hoped Mugabe would realize that the government should help the people, but he had to be realistic and "budget" for ZANU-PF obstructionism. If ZANU-PF violated the Q"budget" for ZANU-PF obstructionism. If ZANU-PF violated the September 15 agreement and failed to act responsibly, MDC would have to expose it in the Cabinet, Council of Ministers, National Security Council, and to SADC and the world. Recognizing potential problems, however, with ZANU-PF, Tsvangirai believed there was a "collective will" to make the government work. HARARE 00000091 003 OF 003 ¶12. (SBU) While ZANU-PF would maintain control of important ministries; Tsvangirai explained that MDC would have deputy ministers in the MFA, Defense, Local Government, Agriculture, Women, and Justice. He joked that as long as targeted sanctions were in place, the foreign minister would be unable to travel to the U.S. or Europe, and this responsibility would fall on the MDC deputy. -------------- MDC Unity -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Tsvangirai maintained that the MDC was going into government as a unified party. All the provinces and the women's and youth assemblies had been represented in the National Council meeting where the decision was made. Thousands of Zimbabweans were outside after the Council voted and there was a collective sigh of relief. "What next," Tsvangirai rhetorically asked, "if we didn't go into government." The MDC now had an opportunity to unlock ZANU-PF's grip on power. -------------- 100-Day Plan and the future -------------- ¶14. (SBU) The MDC is meeting this weekend to formulate a 100-day plan after it enters government. Tsvangirai expected this to begin in March. In the interim, he said he would hold a team-building retreat for ministers, audit ministries to understand their capacity and problems, and put staff in place. ¶15. (SBU) Tsvangirai said he expected the government to last for two to two and a half years. At the end of this time, there should be an environment for democracy and political space. The ultimate goal was free and fair elections. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶16. (C) Tsvangirai was confident and measured in his presentation. While he has priorities and a plan, and believes there is a "collective will" for success of the new government, he is, however, likely underestimating the obduracy of ZANU-PF. Early benchmarks as to whether this government has a chance will be whether Gono is replaced, whether there is repeal of repressive legislation, and whether the media environment is opened up. ¶17. (C) Tsvangirai highlighted his desire to achieve stabilization by paying public servants in forex as early as March. Left unsaid was his expectation, despite acknowledging the MDC must earn donor confidence to receive developmental aid, that donors would supply this forex. There is tremendous sympathy for the MDC and a desire to help it succeed. Our challenge is to adhere--and convince others to adhere--to our principles of political and economic reform long enough to ensure that the government is moving in the right direction, but not so long as to hurt the government's chances of success should it measurably move in the right direction. END COMMENT. MCGEE