HARARE: AMBASSADOR'S COURTESY CALLS ON BULGARIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000909

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: HARARE: AMBASSADOR'S COURTESY CALLS ON BULGARIAN
AND EU AMBASSADORS

Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 B,D


1. (U) Ambassador Ray is in the process of making courtesy
calls on Ambassadors to diplomatic missions accredited to
Zimbabwe. This is the first report on visits of interest.

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BULGARIA
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2. (SBU) SUMMARY: A meeting on November 17 with Atanas
Budev, Charge d' Affaires of the Bulgarian Embassy was my
first courtesy call on members of the diplomatic corps (other
than attendance of meetings of the Fishmongers Heads of
Mission). Budev, who is also accredited to five other
countries (including Kenya),has very little to do other than
watch over Bulgarian property left here when state-owned
enterprises pulled out about 10 years ago, so it is no
surprise that he was the first to respond to my request for
calls. Despite having only made one visit to the U.S. (He
did a motor tour of southern Texas when he was assigned to
Mexico),he is very pro-American. His instructions from
Sofia are to support policies of the democratic countries
here, but he has no day-to-day contact with the Government of
Zimbabwe (GOZ). He believes a version of 'soft revolution'
will be needed to force changes in ZANU-PF and unseat
hardliners in the party, and that the West needs to take a
harder line with SADC, especially South Africa. He stressed,
however, that these were his personal opinions developed
after two years in the post, which could very well be closed
within the next few years. END SUMMARY.


3. (SBU) Atanas Budev has been Charge of the Bulgarian
Embassy in Harare since 2007 when the previous Charge, a
police general, quit after only a few months. This is his
first tour in Africa. He is a Latin American specialist who
has served previously in Mexico, Peru, and for five years was
Ambassador to Argentina. He also served in the Latin
American Department of the Foreign Ministry in Sofia. He
says that ten years ago, the position here was downgraded
from Ambassador to Charge because Bulgaria, since the fall of
Communism, has few interests in Zimbabwe. During the period
when Bulgaria was Communist, many state-owned enterprises had
a presence here, but they have since locked their doors and
departed. The Bulgarian community here, including a few
Zimbabwean-Bulgarian married couples, is about 25, so there
is very little for him to do. His instructions from Sofia
are to support the policies of the Western democracies, but
he said he has little to no day-to-day interaction with the
GOZ. He is also accredited to five other African countries
(several of Zim's neighbors and Kenya),where he also has
nothing to do but look after Bulgarian properties. There are
six to eight Bulgarian-owned properties in Harare.


4. (C) Budev said no firm decision has been made in Sofia,
but he would not be surprised if in the next five years the
embassy here was closed because of the lack of anything
really meaningful for a Bulgarian diplomat to do. Having
said all that, Budev then went on to say that his
observations over the past two years lead him to believe
that, if there is ever to be any meaningful change in
Zimbabwe, it will come through internal change of ZANU-PF.
External pressure on ZANU-PF, absent any real engagement, he
said, only empowers the hardliners in the party and keeps it
united under their control. What needs to happen is for the
Qunited under their control. What needs to happen is for the
outside powers to build contradictions within ZANU-PF. As an
example, he cited the recent EU delegation that made the
statement that it was willing to work with anyone who
respected human rights and abided by rule of law. This set
up a storm of criticism and complaint from many in ZANU-PF,
who he believes were threatened by this as it was reaching
out to the few moderates within the party. This form of
"niceness to the bad guys," in the form of the West stating
regularly that we will work with those who follow civilized
rules of behavior, can embolden ZANU-PF moderates, and as
long as we don't taint them by engaging them too closely, can
eventually lead to them moving up in the party power
structure. On the other hand, he believes we need to take a
much harder line with the "good guys," meaning SADC and the
other neighboring states, encouraging them to be more firm in
insisting that ZANU-PF live up to agreements and work to get
along with the opposition and do things that benefit all of
Zimbabwe rather than just their cronies.

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5. (C) COMMENT: A lot of what Budev had to say makes sense,
and appears to be the result of careful thought. As a Latin
America specialist he is not inflicted with the historical
baggage that many old Africa hands have, and looks at the
situation through a fresh set of eyes. That said, he also is
perhaps somewhat naive in believing that well established
Western policies and behaviors will change overnight, or that
there is any hope of moderates in ZANU-PF gaining the upper
hand over the old hands - at least before there have been a
score or more of funerals. END COMMENT.

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
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6. (SBU) On November 19, I met with Xavier Marchal,
Ambassador for the Delegation of the European Commission in
Harare. I had spoken with Ambassador Marchal on a few
occasions at the meetings of the Fishmongers Heads of
Mission, but this was my first chance to speak with him
one-on-one. After pleasantries, Marchal expressed his view
that we (the West) need to consider whether or not a
continued hard line toward Mugabe and ZANU-PF might not be
counterproductive. He said, for instance, that he is not
sure what the impact right now would be of adding several
more people to the sanctions list (NOTE: This subject keeps
coming up. END NOTE.),even if they might possibly deserve
it, because it would only solidify ZANU-PF's attitude of
being persecuted by the West. At the same time, he said he
didn't think it wise presently to consider taking anyone off
the list, although we do need to have a coordinated view on
the issue of parastatals.


7. (SBU) Regarding the Kimberly Process meeting in
Swakopmund, Marchal said the outcome was about as good as we
could have expected, and that in effect it acts like a
suspension since Marange diamonds will have to have a
certification from the monitor before they can be sold
legally. His personal view is that, knowing at the outset
that this was a battle we would lose, he is not sure that
taking a firm stance on suspension was the best course of
action. I pointed out to him that we also had to consider
the other constituents (such as the human rights NGOs,
Congress, etc.),to which he said he fully understood, and
this was just his personal opinion. His problem, he said,
was that a suspension would have done nothing to curb human
rights abuses, and wondered if perhaps there was not another
course we could have taken. I had no answer to that
question, and as I reported previously regarding a
confrontation Marchal had with another European ambassador at
a Fishmonger's meeting, not all of Europe is of one mind
about the issue.


8. (SBU) Marchal said that we need to be ready for the fact
that true reform and progress here will take a long time, and
in his recent conversations with Prime Minister Tsvangirai,
the PM also seems to understand that. As long as Mugabe is
alive, he will cling to power; and the very presence of MDC
in the government is a stick in the eye of ZANU-PF
hardliners. In that regard, the MDC is a winner, and
ZANU-PF's outbursts (orally and in the media) are just a
reflection of their chagrin in being put in the position of
having to accept the opposition.


9. (C) COMMENT: Marchal tends to be odd man out at the
Fishmonger Heads of Mission meeting. The Canadian
QFishmonger Heads of Mission meeting. The Canadian
Ambassador, for instance, takes strong exception to his
characterization of the Namibia KP meeting as a success for
the process. He has on a number of occasions been in
conflict with other EU member state ambassadors as well, and
has, along with the EU, been accused of being 'too soft' on
ZANU-PF.

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CZECH REPUBLIC
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10. (SBU) On November 20, I met with Charge d'Affaires for
the Czech Republic Ludek Zahradnicek and his deputy chief of
mission. Like his Bulgarian counterpart, the Czech has
little to do here, and is accredited to several other
countries in the region. What came as a surprise was his

HARARE 00000909 003 OF 003


announcement that his country has made the decision that
until there is full implementation of the GPA, they will not
upgrade his position to ambassador. The GOZ is aware of
that, he said, but doesn't seem to care one way or another.


11. (SBU) COMMENT: With the exception of the Cuban and the
Iranian, I plan to meet one-on-one with all the other
resident chiefs of mission. Not all of them will have
anything of use or interest to say, but I will provide
reports on those that do. As for the main actors, UK,
Canada, Germany, etc., who I meet regularly in the
Fishmongers' meetings, I will report on what they have to say
in the context of those meetings.


RAY