EDUCATING ZIMBABWE'S NEXT GENERATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000877 SIPDIS DEPT CA/VO/P AND CA/FPP FOR M. LEDESMA-LEESE DEPT CA/EX FOR R. BOETTCHER DEPT AF/S FOR B. WALCH DEPT ECA/A/S/A FOR C. DANZ AND D. YOUNG DEPT AF/PD FOR BRUCE WHARTON DEPT PLEASE PASS TO KCC JOHANNESBURG FOR RCO KENT MAY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CMGT CVIS OEXC KFRD KPAO ZI SUBJECT: EDUCATING ZIMBABWE'S NEXT GENERATION REF: STATE 017314 HARARE 00000877 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. SUMMARY: In a conscious decision to effect change through the education of Zimbabwe's next generation of leaders, Mission Zimbabwe actively seeks the country's best and brightest for study in the U.S. In the past ten years the number of Zimbabweans studying in the U.S. has grown from approximately 500 to over 1,500. In a just-completed student visa validation study, Post discovered that overall, 93 percent of student visa recipients remained enrolled and in "good status" a year following their visa issuance, while 100 percent of those sampled that were enrolled in the Embassy's EducationUSA Advising Center (EAC) were found in good status. END SUMMARY. -------------- PAS - Consular Synergy -------------- ¶2. The U.S. Embassy Public Affairs Section's EducationUSA Advising Center (EAC) provides comprehensive services to serious Zimbabwean students seeking to further their education in the U.S. The EAC is a membership-based center that works closely and personally with prospective students to ensure they are successful in identifying appropriate colleges and universities, completing the application requirements for those universities, and financing their education. In a robust program that includes seminars, presentations, a review of academic achievement, and individual counseling, the EAC screens prospective students to admit only those whose academic qualifications and desires meet the goals of the program. In FY 2009, the EAC responded to over 30,000 requests for information, which led to 346 new students enrolled in the program. In appreciation of the portal the EAC provides for outreach to the Zimbabwe student population, consular officers participate in numerous EAC sponsored events, such as student visa seminars, college fairs, and presentations at local universities. In return, the EAC benefits from direct consular participation and its students come prepared for their visa interviews. -------------- Validation Methodology and Findings -------------- ¶3. In FY 2009, Harare had 592 student applications, which represented 13 percent of Post's non-immigrant visa (NIV) workload. Among the 592 applications, 327 were approved, resulting in an overall approval rate of 55 percent. Of note, 160 of the 592 total applications were from EAC students (27 percent of the total). However, these same 160 were also among the 327 approved visas, comprising 49 percent of the approvals. The EAC did not have a single refusal in FY 2009. ¶4. June through December represent Post's busiest student visa workload. In CY 2008, 258 F1 visas were issued during this period, which defined the total population of the validation. (NOTE: Among these 258 approvals, 127 were enrolled in the EAC, about half. END NOTE.) We used a Chi Square distribution to determine the true standard deviation (with a 95 percent confidence level),assumed a variation of 0.7, and chose a 0.05 precision factor. This resulted in a required sample size of 135. We then used a random generator to select 135 applicants from the total population of 258 for verification through the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS),DHS' Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS), and direct contact with school registrars. Qand direct contact with school registrars. ¶5. Of the 135 cases verified, 126 were found to be enrolled in school and in good status a year after arriving in the U.S. This resulted in a 93 percent validation rate. Of the 9 negative verifications, 3 never showed-up (enrolled) at school and 6 dropped-out within a year of arriving. Of the 9, only 1 has a record of departing PH9cations have a departure record in ADIS and are presumed to be residing in the U.S. Post has entered P6G (Quasi-Student Visa Abuser) lookouts for each. ¶6. Not surprising, students who applied after being enrolled in the EAC did very well during their visa interview. Of the 127 EAC applicants who applied during the validation period, all were issued visas. Further, none of the negative validations were EAC students. In general, EAC students have outstanding academic records, applied HARARE 00000877 002.2 OF 002 to prestigious colleges and universities, and obtained qualifying funding. Additionally, many excelled on their SATs and garnered prestigious scholarships. In short, the EAC screens its applicant pool for academic intent and potential, while only enrolling those who have a serious chance of succeeding at a U.S. university. By the time these students arrive for their interview, they "jump out" as highly qualified. -------------- Residence Abroad and 214(b) -------------- ¶7. As is the case in other impoverished countries with limited opportunity for professionals, judging residence abroad and a student's intent to return following a course of study are often challenging tasks for adjudicators in Harare. While it is natural for students not to possess ties of property, employment, family obligation, or continuity of life that are typical of B visa applicants, a cynic could also argue that the economic and political reality in Zimbabwe makes it unlikely for any Zimbabwe student to return. In judging the residence abroad requirement for Zimbabwe students, Post has adopted a broad interpretation of the statute which dwells on a student's immediate intent. Officers are instructed to judge immediate intent based on a student's desire to complete a course of study in the U.S. and return, or remain in legal status. Acknowledging Post's reliance on accurately judging a student's immediate intent, it is useful to compute validation results that omit EAC students. After all, before their visa interview, EAC students have already been screened and selected for the program based on their intent. ¶8. If we subtract EAC students from both the total and sample populations for the validation study outlined above, Post issued 131 visas to students "at large" that were judged to have the immediate intent of successfully pursuing a course of study in the U.S. From this total population, post sampled 62 "at large" student approvals. Among these 62 "at large" approvals, 9 were found to be "out of status" a year after visa approval, resulting in an adjudication validation rate of only 85 percent, significantly below the overall 93 percent that included EAC students. As a result of this study, Post has identified "at large" student visa adjudications as an emphasis item for continuation training, and has pulled the files for the 9 known cases in search of common characteristics. Interestingly, 4 of the 9 applicants were previous student visa holders (renewing their visas),and 2 of the 6 no shows were enrolled at major universities. -------------- Conclusions -------------- ¶9. With a 95 percent confidence factor, 93 percent of our overall student visa approvals between Jun-Dec 2008 were correct in determining immediate student intent, assuming a margin of error of 5 percent. ¶10. When subtracting students enrolled in the Embassy's EAC, only 85 percent of the "at large" student visa approvals between Jun-Dec 2008 were correct in determining immediate student intent. ¶11. Post has identified "at large" student visa adjudications as an emphasis item for weekly continuation training. RAY