TSVANGIRAI ON STATE OF PLAY IN ZIMBAWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000085 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B.WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI ON STATE OF PLAY IN ZIMBAWE REF: HARARE 79 Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Morgan Tsvangirai met with South African president Motlanthe on February 5 in South Africa. ZANU-PF and MDC negotiators also met yesterday in South Africa. Upon Tsvangirai's return to Harare today, he briefed the Ambassador. ¶2. (C) Negotiators agreed that governorships would be divided 5-4-1 with either ZANU-PF or MDC-T getting 5 governors and MDC-M getting 1. The party that gets 4 will be entitled to an additional minister (minister of state without portfolio). The principals will decide as to the final allocation. There was no agreement on timing of implementation. MDC-T and MDC-M proposed immediate implementation, but Mugabe is opposed. Tsvangirai said Motlanthe and SADC were supportive of the MDC position and he expected the issue to be resolved by early next week. ¶3. (C) Amendment 19 will be introduced today. Contrary to press reports, it will not be voted on today, according to Tsvangirai, but on February 9 by which time the MDC expects an agreement among the parties on the governorship issue. ¶4. (C) The parties have agreed on a draft National Security Council bill. It will be introduced on February 9. Tsvangirai expects it to be passed on February 10. ¶5. (C) On the vexing issue of abductees, Tsvangirai told us, as had Welshman Ncube (Ref),that the Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) had agreed that all those in custody should be released immediately on bail. Tsvangirai refused to say what he would do if they are not released by the time of his scheduled inauguration; he was confident they would be. He said he had discussed this with Motlanthe who agreed they should be released forthwith. ¶6. (C) Tsvangirai expects to be inaugurated on February 11 in a public ceremony. Motlanthe told him that AU, SADC representatives, and possibly the UN's Ban Ki-Moon would attend. ¶7. (C) The Ambassador expressed his concert about detained USAID employee Frank Muchirahondo and told Tsvangirai that if Muchirahondo is not released this will be the first issue he will officially raise with him after he is sworn in. (NOTE: Muchirahondo had a bail hearing today. The prosecution opposed bail, alleging the weight of the evidence, the gravity of the charge, and that Muchirahondo is a flight risk because he was arrested crossing from Zimbabwe to Mozambique. The magistrate will rule tomorrow. END NOTE.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) All signs point to a February 11 inauguration, per the SADC Communique. We believe detainees have not yet been released because hard-liners within ZANU-PF, particularly Emmerson Mnangagwa, are unhappy about Tsvangirai entering into government and are fighting a rear-guard action against implementation of the September 15 agreement. We'll see if Tsvangirai is correct that the abductees will be released--his inauguration while they remain in custody would send a terrible signal. END COMMENT. Qsend a terrible signal. END COMMENT. MCGEE