ZIM NOTES 10-09-2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000812 AF/S FOR B. WALCH ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND J. HARMON COMMERCE FOR ROBERT TELCHIN SIPDIS E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ECON ZI SUBJECT: ZIM NOTES 10-09-2009 -------------- ¶1. SUMMARY -------------- Topics of the week: - Mugabe Opens Parliament... - ...And Then Attacks West's "Obnoxious Agenda"... - State Media Calls Off Attack Dogs... - ... And Then Intimidates Independent Paper... - Voter Roll Irregularities... - Striking Mine Workers Shot, Intimidated... - Minister of Defense Leads Diamond Delegation... - Zim Third-to-Last in Governance... - Biti is Best Finance Minister in Africa... - Stock Exchange Rises Against a Sea of Gloom... - Large Textile Firm Goes Under... - Journalists Astounded... - Government Cooks Up Another Privatization Plan... - Gono Wins Ig Nobel Prize... -------------- On the Political and Social Front -------------- ¶2. Mugabe Opens Parliament... President Robert Mugabe gave a subdued and conciliatory speech at the opening of Parliament this week. There was a marked contrast with the atmosphere last year when MDC MPs jeered him and accused him of stealing the election. Under instructions from their party, they remained respectful and even applauded when Mugabe called for unity. Instead of the anti-Western rhetoric of previous parliamentary openings, Mugabe stated, "Our country remains in a positive stance to enter into fresh, friendly and cooperative relations with all those countries that have been hostile to us in the past." Mugabe also said that as re-engagement proceeds, he would expect sanctions to be lifted. ¶3. ...And Then Attacks West's "Obnoxious Agenda"... President Mugabe spoke at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) 'World 2009' meeting in Geneva on Wednesday. He attacked the West for what he called the continued violation of Zimbabwe's airwaves by foreign based radio stations. Mugabe told a Council of Ministers meeting that 'certain western countries' had 'radio broadcasting systems' that were targeting 'his' country to further their 'obnoxious regime change agendas.' ¶4. State Media Calls Off Attack Dogs... State media has ceased, at least for the time being, attacks on Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai. A Tsvangirai advisor told us that "hate speech" was one of the issues about which Tsvangirai had recently confronted President Robert Mugabe, and that Mugabe had subsequently instructed George Charamba, presidential spokesperson and permanent secretary in the Ministry of Information, to lay off. Charamba, who has substantial control over the content of State media, took Mugabe's instructions one step further. There has been no negative coverage of Tsvangirai, but neither has there been any other coverage. ¶5. ...And Then Intimidates Independent Paper... George Charamba admonished Zimbabwe Independent Editor Barnabas Thondhlana to not launch publication of a new independent daily "NewsDay." Charamba threatened to arrest him if the paper begins publishing without a license from the Media Information Commission. The MIC has been Qlicense from the Media Information Commission. The MIC has been defunct for more than six month, and until the President announces the new Zimbabwe Media Commission, there is no body to issue licenses. ¶6. Voter Roll Irregularities... In an exhaustive preliminary analysis of the Zimbabwe voters' roll entitled "2013 Vision-Seeing Double and the Dead," the Research and Advocacy Unit (RAU) based in HARARE 00000812 002 OF 003 Harare points to numerous irregularities that undermine the possibility of a fair election in Zimbabwe. Among RAU's findings: There are over 74,000 registered voters over the age of 100 out of approximately 6 million voters (and RAU asserts the 6 million figure is improbable in a population that was calculated at 11.6 million in the last census in 2002); there are over 182,000 voters registered in two or more constituencies; in a number of instances, entire blocks of voters appear in two constituencies. Because electoral authorities refused to release detailed election results, it was impossible to compare the voters' roll with actual voting. RAU recommends legislative reform to remove the discretion of the Registrar-General in registration of voters, a reconstituted and independent electoral commission, a new Registrar-General, and construction of a new voters' roll. The RAU report can be found at: www.sokwanele.com/this iszimbabwe/archives/4858 ¶7. Striking Mine Workers Shot, Intimidated... Three leaders of a protracted strike at Shabanie asbestos mine in central Zimbabwe were shot on September 25 by police apparently acting at the behest of management of the government-operated mine. Since the shooting, workers have returned to the job, fearing further violence and loss of their mine-owned housing. Labor leaders have called for an official inquiry into the shooting, but so far no action has been taken. See Harare 788. ¶8. Minister of Defense Leads Diamond Delegation... The Herald is reporting that Defense Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa is leading a Zimbabwean delegation to Angola and Namibia to consult on how best to comply with Kimberley Process recommendations in exploiting the Chiadzwa diamonds. Deputy Minister of Mines Murisi Zwizwai (MDC-T) and other "high level officials" are also on the trip. Zwizwai caused a firestorm in the MDC in June when he repeated ZANU-PF's mantra that there had been no violence in the lucrative, troubled diamond fields, where NGOs report over 200 have been killed in the last year. ¶9. Zim Third-to-Last in Governance... The Mo Ibrahim Foundation released its Index of African Governance this week, ranking Zimbabwe 51 out of the 53 African countries measured by commitment to four pillars of governance - safety and rule of law, participation and human rights, sustainable economic opportunity, and human development. Only Somalia and Chad scored worse. -------------- On the Economic and Business Front -------------- ¶10. Biti is Best Finance Minister in Africa... In another case of a prophet not being popular at home, Finance Minister Tendai Biti has just won the Euromoney Emerging Markets award for Best Finance Minister in Africa. Biti has withstood steady abuse from the government press for prudent policies that put a stop to the destabilizing habits of Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono. Despite Qdestabilizing habits of Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono. Despite the iron constraints that come with a cash budget, Zimbabwe's economy has recovered significantly under Biti's watch. ¶11. Stock Exchange Rises Against a Sea of Gloom... Following the end of hyperinflation and the re-opening of trading on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) in February, the market has performed exceptionally well. The latest data show that the benchmark industrial index rose by 64 percent from February through September. According to the ZSE's Chief Executive Officer, foreign investors are taking advantage of low share prices for heavily capitalized firms such as Delta, Econet, Old Mutual, and Innscor, which should produce solid returns if the economic recovery is sustained. ¶12. Large Textile Firm Goes Under... One of the largest textile manufacturers in Zimbabwe, David Whitehead Limited, has filed for HARARE 00000812 003 OF 003 voluntary liquidation. The company has high production costs and a debt overhang of over USD2 million. New investors who bought the company late last year now believe that the balance sheet failed to show the company's true financial strength as it included some assets that were in dispute. The closure of the company will result in a loss of 1,400 jobs. ¶13. Journalists Astounded... On October 5 the Public Affairs Section held a press roundtable on Zimbabwe's economy. The questions mainly had to do with sanctions -- or the "illegal economic embargo," as it is known in the official press. The assembled journalists, all of them from independent news outlets, were astounded to hear that trade between the U.S. and Zimbabwe has doubled since 2003. So much for the embargo. Surprisingly -- or perhaps not -- the local press did not consider this worth reporting. ¶14. Government Cooks Up Another Privatization Plan... privatization plan prepared by the Ministry of State Enterprises and Parastatals. Most state-owned enterprises are operating at around five percent capacity, mainly because their capital stock has eroded. Zimbabwe has seen many privatization plans but relatively little privatization. We do not expect a different outcome this time. ¶15. Gono Wins Ig Nobel Prize... Reserve Bank Gideon Gono received the Ig Nobel Prize in Mathematics on October 1 for "giving people a simple, everyday way to cope with a wide range of numbers - from very small to very big - by having his bank print bank notes with denominations ranging from one cent ($.01) to one hundred trillion dollars ($100,000,000,000,000)." The Annals of Improbable Research announced the awards in a ceremony at Harvard University. Gono did not attend. -------------- Quote of the Week -------------- ¶16. "We have repeatedly told the police that they should always refrain from using firearms against defenseless people." -- Co-Minister of Home Affairs, Giles Mutsekwa, speaking about the September 25 shooting at Shabanie mine ¶17. "I was hired by politics to make them look pretty" --George Charamba, the bombastic Information Ministry Permanent Secretary speaking to Zimbabwean newspaper editors at a UNESCO-organized meeting on October 6. PETTERSON