TSVANGIRAI ADVISOR ON STATE OF PLAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000806 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY TEXT AF/S FOR B.WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI ADVISOR ON STATE OF PLAY REF: A. HARARE 753 ¶B. HARARE 736 Classified By: CDA Donald Petterson for reason 1.4 (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Gorden Moyo, political advisor to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, briefed the Charge October 7 on current political developments. Moyo believes that Tsvangirai's hard-hitting speech at an MDC rally in Bulawayo on September 13 has led to a conciliatory attitude on the part of President Robert Mugabe. Progress includes the naming of the Media Commission (which will be announced in the next several days),steps to form other commissions, a reconfigured constitutional process, a cessation of media attacks on Tsvangirai, and a subdued address by Mugabe at the opening of Parliament on October 6. Moyo acknowledges that further progress on the Global Political Agreement (GPA) will be incremental, but emphasized that this is acceptable -- the goal is a new constitution that will lead to elections. Moyo also discussed land invasions and disruptions of wild-life conservancies, and sanctions. END SUMMARY. -------------- -- Tsvangirai's Harder Line Pays Some Dividends... -------------- -- ¶2. (C) Gorden Moyo, political advisor to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, briefed the Charge October 7 on current political developments. According to Moyo, Tsvangirai's address to between 25,000 and 30,000 MDC supporters in Bulawayo on September 13 to celebrate the MDC's 10th anniversary (Ref B) had scared Mugabe. After meeting with the MDC National Council, Tsvangirai blasted ZANU-PF and Mugabe for not complying with the GPA, said he would not be a whipping boy for ZANU-PF, and promised to let the people decide whether the MDC should remain in government. ¶3. (C) Moyo told the Charge that Mugabe, who wants to delay implementation of the GPA but not derail it, had become concerned that the MDC might leave government and had taken steps to appease Tsvangirai. He had met with Tsvangirai and the two had selected Media Commission members (to be announced in the next several days). He was helping to facilitate selection of members for the Electoral Commission, the Human Rights Commission, and the Anti-Corruption Commission; selection of members should take place in the next few weeks. He had agreed with Tsvangirai that appointments to six media parastatals (Zimpapers, which publishes State newspapers including The Herald; the Broadcasting Authority of Zimbabwe (BAZ) which is responsible for State television; Transmedia, a transmission equipment provider; Kingstons, a bookseller; and Niw Ziana, a news outlet) should be reviewed. (NOTE: The appointments have drawn sharp criticism from media watchdogs. Tafataona Mahoso, who as chair of the former Media and Information Commission, banned the Daily News, was appointed to head the BAZ, and military officials were appointed to all of the boards. END NOTE.) Mugabe had directed that State media boards. END NOTE.) Mugabe had directed that State media cease attacks on Tsvangirai. Finally, Mugabe in his address at the opening of Parliament on October 6 had called for lifting of sanctions but had refrained from attacks on the West. ¶4. (SBU) NOTE: Toward the end of his speech at the opening of Parliament, which focused on the economy and legislative priorities, Mugabe stated "Our country remains in a positive stance to enter into fresh, friendly and co-operative relations with all those countries that have been hostile to us in the past." In the only reference to sanctions, he said that "...as our inclusive Government re-engages the Western countries we expect those countries that have imposed the illegal sanctions which have hurt and continue to hurt our economy and the generality of our people, to remove them." In an above-the-fold headline on October 7, The Herald trumpeted, "Zim ready to engage West." END NOTE. -------------- -------------- ..But the Focus is on the Constitution and Elections -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Noting that progress was likely to be slow on outstanding GPA issues, Moyo said the MDC could live with that. The fundamental goal of the MDC was a constitution that would pave the way for elections. Mugabe, in Moyo's opinion, was key to movement in the process leading up to a new constitution and elections, and Tsvangirai's working relationship with Mugabe was allowing this to go forward. Without Mugabe, there would be chaos, and hardliners who want to scuttle the GPA -- Moyo pointed to Patrick Chinamasa, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Gideon Gono, George Charamba, and Jonathan Moyo -- would take over ZANU-PF. (NOTE: Moyo downplayed the role of the service chiefs who he said had little support within the military; he thought Mugabe had control over them and they were used by him to intimidate. END NOTE.) ¶6. (C) On the constitution, Moyo said that in discussions on reconfiguration of the process (Ref A),the principals -- Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara -- had agreed the Kariba draft would be a reference document. If there were disagreements on a particular issue, the parties would look to the Kariba draft to resolve it. For example, the Kariba draft provided for immunity from prosecution for ex-presidents. Moyo noted immunity would be of concern to Mugabe should he leave office. -------------- Some Notes on Land -------------- ¶7. (C) Moyo noted the reluctance of the MDC to tackle land invasions head-on; the MDC does not want to be viewed as supporting white farmers. He said the MDC in Cabinet was planning to support formation of a bi-partisan group to look at the land issue in the context of corruption. The group would first investigate parastatals, then the mining industry, and finally land with the goal of unearthing fake offer letters and multiple ownerships. ¶8. (C) With regard to recent efforts of ZANU-PF officials to make themselves partners with conservancy owners, Moyo said he was aware of the issue and that Tsvangirai had spoken to Vice-President Mujuru about it. He admitted this was not a priority; the Prime Minister's Office had too few resources to deal with it. -------------- SANCTIONS -------------- ¶9. (C) Cabinet will debate sanctions at the end of the month, according to Moyo. He is preparing a paper to demonstrate that sanctions and ZDERA are not responsible for Zimbabwe's economic plight. The MDC hopes to focus the discussion on what it will argue is necessary for sanctions discussion on what it will argue is necessary for sanctions to be removed and ZDERA repealed -- full compliance with the GPA. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Moyo confirmed what we have heard from Tsvangirai, Tendai Biti, and others: GPA progress will be slow and the gold ring for the MDC is a new constitution and elections. One potentially positive area is the media. The formation of the Media Commission will allow authorization for the Daily News to resume publication and for Newsday (a daily version of The Independent) to begin publication. END COMMENT. PETTERSON