MDC LOOKS TO ZUMA VISIT AND UPCOMING SADC SUMMIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000674 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B. WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAIDFOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI SUBJECT: MDC LOOKS TO ZUMA VISIT AND UPCOMING SADC SUMMIT TO RESOLVE ISSUES Classified By: CDA Katherine Dhanani for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Gordon Moyo, the Minister of State in the Prime Minister's Office, briefed the Embassy on outstanding Global Political Agreement (GPA) issues and efforts to have SADC and SADC Chair (and South African President) Jacob Zuma resolve them. These issues include the long-standing dispute over the appointments of Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono and Attorney General Johannes Tomana, the targeted prosecutions of MDC-T parliamentarians and other officials, and the failure to appoint new governors. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Moyo met August 14 with Embassy officials and Peter Quaranto, a member of Senator Russell Feingold's staff, who was on a fact finding trip to Zimbabwe. -------------- Tsvangirai Preparing for Upcoming SADC Summit -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Moyo, following Tsvangirai's face-to-face with Zuma in South Africa earlier this month, Tsvangirai was hopeful the South African President would press for resolution of the contested appointments of RBZ Governor Gideon Gono and Attorney General Johannes Tomana. Moyo thought President Robert Mugabe might be willing to compromise by retaining Gono and replacing Tomana. The MDC would accept this as it considered Gono largely marginalized, while Tomana -- who has been responsible for the selective prosecution of MDC parliamentarians -- was much more destructive. ¶4. (C) Moyo also informed us that at an August 12 principals meeting of Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Arthur Mutambara, Mugabe indicated he might back out of the previously agreed upon transfer of six of the ten governor posts to the MDC factions. According to Moyo, Mugabe said that he would, "have to think about it." The Tsvangirai camp believes Mugabe wants to put the issue back on the table and then concede it during a Zuma visit to Zimbabwe on August 27. (NOTE: Zuma is coming to an agricultural show in Zimbabwe but will presumably also discuss political issues with the principals. END NOTE.) This would make Mugabe appear reasonable while allowing Zuma to declare that progress had been achieved. -------------- Next Steps -------------- ¶5. (C) Tsvangirai has invited Mugabe, along with all ministers, deputy ministers and permanent secretaries, to attend a retreat in eastern Zimbabwe this weekend to review the Global Political Agreement (GPA) and promote cohesion. In advance of a SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government to be held September 2 to September 8, Tsvangirai will undertake a regional tour to lobby SADC leaders on outstanding issues. Moyo named soon-to-be SADC Chair and DRC President Joseph Kabila and Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete as points of focus for this outreach. ¶6. (C) Clearly concerned about the selective prosecution of Q6. (C) Clearly concerned about the selective prosecution of MPs, Tsvangirai presented Mugabe with a dossier implicating ZANU-PF officials and members with 2008 election violence, according to Moyo. Tsvangirai implied he would go public if HARARE 00000674 002 OF 002 prosecutions of MDC members did not stop. Mugabe said he would study the file. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Frustrated by the lack of progress in numerous arenas, Tsvangirai, who has been criticized by his own party for being insufficiently assertive, is pressing Mugabe and ZANU-PF for compliance with the GPA, and is also appealing to SADC to more forcefully assume its role as guarantor of the GPA. Mugabe remains obstinate. ZANU-PF is counter attacking by accusing the MDC of failure to carry out GPA commitments to work for the elimination of sanctions and the cessation of broadcasting by "pirate radio stations," (including VOA). With regard to SADC, there are reports that Zuma may be more willing to exert pressure on Mugabe than was his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki. We have yet to see evidence of this. Furthermore, the SADC Chair will soon pass to the Congo's Kabila, and there is little reason to believe Kabila will lean on Mugabe. END COMMENT. DHANANI