BITI ON CURRENT ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000622 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B.WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ECON ZI SUBJECT: BITI ON CURRENT ISSUES Classified By: CDA Katherine Dhanani for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Minister of Finance Tendai Biti told the American Business Association of Zimbabwe (ABAZ) that Zimbabwe was at a cross roads; continued progress depended on successful completion of the constitutional process and resolution of ZANU-PF succession, the land issue, and Global Political Agreement (GPA) outstanding issues. He also briefly reviewed some of his recent actions as Minister of Finance. Separately, he discussed MDC internal politics and ZANU-PF succession, and the threat on his life. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Biti addressed the monthly meeting of ABAZ on July ¶29. He met with Pol/Econ chief on July 28. -------------- A Political Crossroads -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Biti prefaced his remarks to ABAZ by noting that economic progress and development depended on political reform. Averring that Zimbabwe was at a crossroads, he pointed to four problematic areas: ZANU-PF succession, land, outstanding GPA issues, and the constitution and elections. Resolution of all of these was important to the progress of the new government. ¶4. (C) Biti said that ZANU-PF was preoccupied with succession to President Robert Mugabe. Until this was resolved, it would be difficult for ZANU-PF to act as a mature party and engage rationally in the political process. (NOTE: In our conversation with Biti on July 28, he said he had recently talked with Minister of Defense Emmerson Mnangagwa regarding defense forces needs. In the course of the conversation, he asked Mnangagwa when "the old man" would leave. Mnangagwa responded that Mugabe intended to resign as ZANU-PF head in December at the party congress. Biti acknowledged that "we've heard this before," and it would be imprudent to give this too much credence. END NOTE.) ¶5. (SBU) Turning to land, Biti said it was imperative that private land title exist for purposes of investment and credit markets. He noted that the GPA called for a land audit; it was important that this be done as soon as possible to eliminate multiple farm ownership. ¶6. (SBU) Biti noted that a number of GPA issues remained outstanding, including the appointments of Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) governor Gideon Gono and Attorney General Johannes Tomana He observed that Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai would meet with South African president Jacob Zuma this week to discuss the GPA and that SADC would likely consider outstanding issues in August or September. ¶7. (SBU) Finally, Biti discussed the constitutional process. He said the Kariba draft (which he helped write) had been designed as an interim constitution for the last elections, and it was never contemplated that it would be a permanent document. Now that there was a process to adopt a new constitution, it was important to get it right. Of primary importance was a term limitation on the executive to avoid the African syndrome of presidents serving in perpetuity. Qthe African syndrome of presidents serving in perpetuity. Without discussing timetables, Biti stressed the need to have new elections after the adoption of the constitution. -------------- On the Economic Front -------------- HARARE 00000622 002 OF 003 ¶8. (C) According to Biti, legislation has been prepared and will be introduced in the next couple of weeks to restrict the quasi-fiscal activities of the RBZ and to circumscribe the powers of the governor. Additionally, an independent auditor will be established. Privately, Biti told us that he had discussed the legislation with Mugabe and that passage was assured. Next, he said he would seek to revise the tax code. ¶9. (C) Biti reiterated his public comments that the Zimbabwe dollar would not return in the foreseeable future. Zimbabwe was making plans to abandon the current multi-currency regime and to adopt either the U.S. dollar or the Rand. The advantage to the Rand was that it could eventually be a regional currency. Biti said he had discussed the matter with Mugabe and intimated that a decision had been made. He said a decision would be announced in November. ¶10. (SBU) Biti was asked whether a $23 million judgment by the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes in favor of Dutch farmers who had brought a claim against the GOZ for expropriation of farms in violation of a Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement would permit the attachment of Air Zimbabwe planes. After joking that this might not be a bad thing--the airline was losing $500,000 per week--Biti said he had made provision for compensation to the farmers in his budget. ¶11. (SBU) Biti was also asked whether he would provide compensation to Zimplats and other mining groups which had had their foreign currency accounts raided by the RBZ. He replied he considered the RBZ and not government to be liable; he would consider a small government contribution, but his main focus was in helping mineral developers operate efficiently in the future by establishing reasonable taxes and royalties. -------------- Politics and a Death Threat -------------- ¶12. (C) In our private conversation on July 29, Biti criticized Tsvangirai for being too conciliatory toward Mugabe and for lacking a strategic plan for the MDC in government. He thought ZANU-PF was weak and that the MDC should be more assertive with a reform agenda. We noted that Tsvangirai had made a strong statement at the launch last week of the Organ on National Healing, Reconciliation, and Integration in which he emphasized the necessity of complying with the GPA and noted that political violence continued. Biti said he had prepared Tsvangirai for his speech. He commented that recent meetings of the MDC Standing Committee (10 or so top officials) had been unusually contentious. Nelson Chamisa and he in particular had urged Tsvangirai to be more assertive. ¶13. (C) Biti said he was learning each day how powerful the finance ministry was. He had taken unilateral actions such as the removal of duties on imported newspapers and would continue to act to liberalize the economy. As to political reforms, he downplayed repeal or modification of AIPPA and Qreforms, he downplayed repeal or modification of AIPPA and POSA; these acts had been substantially and positively modified in 2008. Although Gono's continued presence at the RBZ was a thorn in his side and symbolically demonstrated lack of progress under the new government, Gono had been almost completely marginalized. By far the most important area for reform, in his opinion, was the media. He noted that Parliament was in the process of constituting a new media commission, and he expected the media environment to open up. HARARE 00000622 003 OF 003 ¶14. (C) Biti said he took the death threat against him earlier this week (a bullet and threatening note were delivered to his residence) seriously. His wife and young son had recently joined him from South Africa and he was considering moving to a more secure neighborhood. After having just told us of some of his political differences with Tsvangirai, Biti said that after receiving the threat he immediately drove to Tsvangirai's house to inform him. He remarked that Tsvangirai responded to him not as a party president to a secretary general, but as a father to a son. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶15. (C) State media reports have attempted to exploit differences within the MDC as dissension that could lead to weakening of the party. Biti is ambitious and undoubtedly sees himself as the heir apparent. And he does differ with Tsvangirai on tactics. But he and others realize that Tsvangirai is the only MDC leader with genuine national stature and we see no challenge to his leadership or weakening of the party. It is true that the MDC needs to be more focused and strategic. Biti, Chamisa and others are constructively and forcefully making this point. ¶16. (C) While Biti has been critical of Tsvangirai's working relationship with Mugabe, he himself has realized that diplomacy is sometimes the better part of valor. The relationship he has established with Mugabe permitted Cabinet approval of his initial budget and has helped him gain support for the RBZ legislation. DHANANI