ZIM AG MINISTER OVERESTIMATES AGRICULTURAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000479 SENSITIVE SIPDIS AF/S FOR B. WALCH AF/EPS FOR ANN BREITER NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND J. HARMON TREASURY FOR D. PETERS COMMERCE FOR ROBERT TELCHIN ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PLEASE PASS TO N. LUSANE AND T. DAGNE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR ECON PGOV XA ZI SUBJECT: ZIM AG MINISTER OVERESTIMATES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION REF: HARARE 456 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In a meeting with CODEL Payne and Ambassador McGee on May 30, Minister of Agriculture Joseph Made (ZANU-PF) estimated the maize shortfall and level of food insecurity in 2009/10. He conceded the outlook was poor for the winter wheat crop, and made a pitch for credit facilities for smallholders and for recapitalization of the domstic fertilizer industry. USDA's latest production figures for Zimbabwe are well below Made's. Until the new government addresses the delicate issue of reviving commercial agriculture regardless of the race of the commercial farmer, food security will remain precarious and highly weather dependent, and the agricultural sector will continue to drain rather than fill ZimbQwe's current account. END SUMMARY. -------------- Good Rains, Yet Maize Shortfall Once Again -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a meeting with CODEL Payne and Ambassador McGee at the Ministry of Agriculture on May 30, Minister Joseph Made (ZANU-PF),together with four other Ministry officials, addressed a range of issues affecting agricultural production. Made said this year's summer rains had been good, but there would still be a shortfall in maize for human consumption of 600,000-700,000 MT. He opined that food availability at the household level would be "reasonable" until November or December 2009. -------------- Credit Crunch Stymies Sector -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Made conceded that Zimbabwe was behind schedule in planting the winter wheat crop. He said lack of credit had prevented farmers from getting fertilizer and purchasing seed. Adequate seed had been available, he maintained, but at prohibitive prices. Looking toward the next summer maize crop, Made estimated that Zimbabwe's smallholders would produce 40-45 percent of the crop, but 300,000 of the 960,000 farming households would not have adequate inputs to plant maize. The Minister made the case that if more credit were available to small and medium-sized farmers, food security would improve. Specifically, he asked for more food-for-work programs rather than direct food assistance. ¶4. (SBU) On fertilizer, Made reported that the domestic fertilizer industry could produce half to two-thirds of the nation's requirement if additional credit were made available to repair or replace machinery that is now 40 to 50 years old. Made said that if fertilizer plants were recapitalized, Zimbabwe could produce its entire annual requirement of 600 MT fertilizer domestically. -------------- USDA Crop Assessment -------------- Q -------------- HARARE 00000479 002 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) Made's estimates of the 2008/09 maize crop are--no surprise--on the high side. The government's Agricultural Technical and Extension Services agency (AGRITEX) estimated that 1,521,000 ha of maize were planted at a yield of 0.82 MT/ha (three times higher yield than its yield estimate in 2007/2008),for a total crop of over 1.2 million MT. USDA's 2009 Zimbabwe Crop Assessment, which utilizes satellite imagery and field work, suggests that 1,144,000 ha were planted and yield was 0.44 tons/ha for a total crop of about a half million metric tons. The USDA report, released on June 2, took into account the acute shortages of seed, fertilizer and fuel, along with late planting. (NOTE: For comparison sake, in the 1990s, commercial farmers strove to belong to the celebrated and now defunct "Ten Tonne Club" of maize farmers who grew 10 MT/ha. END NOTE.) Additionally, Made's assertion of "reasonable" food availability until November or December is not applicable to the population as a whole; there are pockets of vulnerability and some households will require food assistance as early as three months from now, with the numbers increasing thereafter. On winter wheat estimates, the Ministry of Agriculture revealed at a technical meeting on June 4 that only 4,900 ha of wheat had been planted to date. Wheat planting should have come to an end by May 10 for best yields. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The meeting with Made was cordial. He accompanied the delegation and Ambassador McGee to the State House meeting with President Mugabe (reftel). He chatted nostalgically with econoff about his years of study at the University of Wisconsin, and re-appeared the next day on a Sunday afternoon to bid the CODEL farewell at the airport. As warm and welcoming as he was, however, on agricultural production and the way forward with agriculture his head is still in the sand. Credit facilities for smallholder growers certainly have the potential to improve production, and there is no doubt that Zimbabwe's fertilizer companies are desperate for re-capitalization. But the elephant in the room is the challenge of reviving high-output, surplus-generating commercial agriculture by farmers of any race. Until the inclusive government addresses this admittedly delicate issue, food security will remain precarious and highly weather dependent, and the agricultural sector will continue to drain rather than fill Zimbabwe's current account. END COMMENT. ¶7. (U) NOTE: This cable has not been cleared by Congressman Payne. END NOTE. MCGEE