Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09HARARE405
2009-05-15 10:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:
THE NEW GOZ: A THREE MONTH ASSESSMENT
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 06 HARARE 000405
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B.WALCH
DRL FOR N. WILETT
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR M. GAVIN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: THE NEW GOZ: A THREE MONTH ASSESSMENT
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HARARE 00000405 006 OF 006
the government to continue for five years before they have to
face reelection. In fact, there has been little serious talk
about elections. As noted, the GPA calls for an 18-month
constitutional process and it is likely that real discussion
about elections will come only after this process is well
under way. Under an ideal scenario, a new constitution would
be adopted within 18 months and an election would be held
within six months after that. Our goals for Zimbabwe, and
the goals of the Zimbabwean people themselves, can probably
be met only after new elections, but for now we believe our
focus should be on support for the constitutional process and
legislative reforms that will permit fair elections.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
29. (C) It is questionable whether this government will
produce the meaningful reforms outlined by the Hague
Principles that would justify full reengagement. Progress is
likely to be fitful -- a couple of democratic steps forward
followed by retrogressive actions of those who would like to
see the government fail. We should attempt to help reformist
elements of the government -- which means principally the MDC
-- and the Zimbabwean people. We are already providing
health assistance; potential other areas of assistance
include education and water. Any such assistance should not
of course be made directly to the government. So far, the
government has just asked for money and has not prioritized
needs. We will ask Tsvangirai and Biti to do so in the event
a decision is made to assist the Zimbabwean transition
through aid to critical areas.
30. (C) Increased assistance to the Zimbabwean people,
coupled with the maintaining of OFAC sanctions (with the
exception of parastatals under MDC control),would send a
strong signal. ZANU-PF officials continue to blame sanctions
for Zimbabwe's economic predicament, but notably nobody in
the MDC is suggesting that targeted sanctions should be
lifted. The MDC does contend, as Biti stated during his
visit to Washington, that consideration should be given to
the repeal of ZDERA. We believe that the process of repeal
of ZDERA should begin as a potential carrot for reform,
making clear that actual repeal will depend on substantial
progress in all areas, including rule of law. END COMMENT.
MCGEE
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B.WALCH
DRL FOR N. WILETT
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR M. GAVIN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: THE NEW GOZ: A THREE MONTH ASSESSMENT
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* Missing Section 001 *
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***********************
* Missing Section 002 *
***********************
***********************
* Missing Section 003 *
***********************
***********************
* Missing Section 004 *
***********************
***********************
* Missing Section 005 *
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HARARE 00000405 006 OF 006
the government to continue for five years before they have to
face reelection. In fact, there has been little serious talk
about elections. As noted, the GPA calls for an 18-month
constitutional process and it is likely that real discussion
about elections will come only after this process is well
under way. Under an ideal scenario, a new constitution would
be adopted within 18 months and an election would be held
within six months after that. Our goals for Zimbabwe, and
the goals of the Zimbabwean people themselves, can probably
be met only after new elections, but for now we believe our
focus should be on support for the constitutional process and
legislative reforms that will permit fair elections.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
29. (C) It is questionable whether this government will
produce the meaningful reforms outlined by the Hague
Principles that would justify full reengagement. Progress is
likely to be fitful -- a couple of democratic steps forward
followed by retrogressive actions of those who would like to
see the government fail. We should attempt to help reformist
elements of the government -- which means principally the MDC
-- and the Zimbabwean people. We are already providing
health assistance; potential other areas of assistance
include education and water. Any such assistance should not
of course be made directly to the government. So far, the
government has just asked for money and has not prioritized
needs. We will ask Tsvangirai and Biti to do so in the event
a decision is made to assist the Zimbabwean transition
through aid to critical areas.
30. (C) Increased assistance to the Zimbabwean people,
coupled with the maintaining of OFAC sanctions (with the
exception of parastatals under MDC control),would send a
strong signal. ZANU-PF officials continue to blame sanctions
for Zimbabwe's economic predicament, but notably nobody in
the MDC is suggesting that targeted sanctions should be
lifted. The MDC does contend, as Biti stated during his
visit to Washington, that consideration should be given to
the repeal of ZDERA. We believe that the process of repeal
of ZDERA should begin as a potential carrot for reform,
making clear that actual repeal will depend on substantial
progress in all areas, including rule of law. END COMMENT.
MCGEE