THE NEW GOZ: A THREE MONTH ASSESSMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 06 HARARE 000405 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B.WALCH DRL FOR N. WILETT ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR M. GAVIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI SUBJECT: THE NEW GOZ: A THREE MONTH ASSESSMENT *********************** * Missing Section 001 * *********************** *********************** * Missing Section 002 * *********************** *********************** * Missing Section 003 * *********************** *********************** * Missing Section 004 * *********************** *********************** * Missing Section 005 * *********************** HARARE 00000405 006 OF 006 the government to continue for five years before they have to face reelection. In fact, there has been little serious talk about elections. As noted, the GPA calls for an 18-month constitutional process and it is likely that real discussion about elections will come only after this process is well under way. Under an ideal scenario, a new constitution would be adopted within 18 months and an election would be held within six months after that. Our goals for Zimbabwe, and the goals of the Zimbabwean people themselves, can probably be met only after new elections, but for now we believe our focus should be on support for the constitutional process and legislative reforms that will permit fair elections. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶29. (C) It is questionable whether this government will produce the meaningful reforms outlined by the Hague Principles that would justify full reengagement. Progress is likely to be fitful -- a couple of democratic steps forward followed by retrogressive actions of those who would like to see the government fail. We should attempt to help reformist elements of the government -- which means principally the MDC -- and the Zimbabwean people. We are already providing health assistance; potential other areas of assistance include education and water. Any such assistance should not of course be made directly to the government. So far, the government has just asked for money and has not prioritized needs. We will ask Tsvangirai and Biti to do so in the event a decision is made to assist the Zimbabwean transition through aid to critical areas. ¶30. (C) Increased assistance to the Zimbabwean people, coupled with the maintaining of OFAC sanctions (with the exception of parastatals under MDC control),would send a strong signal. ZANU-PF officials continue to blame sanctions for Zimbabwe's economic predicament, but notably nobody in the MDC is suggesting that targeted sanctions should be lifted. The MDC does contend, as Biti stated during his visit to Washington, that consideration should be given to the repeal of ZDERA. We believe that the process of repeal of ZDERA should begin as a potential carrot for reform, making clear that actual repeal will depend on substantial progress in all areas, including rule of law. END COMMENT. MCGEE