ZIMBABWE COMMITTED TO U.S. DOLLARS FOR CIVIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000183 SIPDIS AF/S FOR B. WALCH AF/EPS FOR ANN BREITER NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND J. HARMON TREASURY FOR D. PETERS COMMERCE FOR ROBERT TELCHIN ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2019 TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE COMMITTED TO U.S. DOLLARS FOR CIVIL SERVICE Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The pervasive dollarization of the Zimbabwe economy and collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar drove the GOZ's decision to pay civil servant allowances in hard-currency vouchers redeemable for goods. Potential abuse of the system by Reserve Bank Governor Gono compelled Minister of Finance Biti to subsequently drop vouchers and direct that allowances be paid directly into government employees' bank accounts effective from March 2009, thus curbing Gono's relevance further in the new scheme of things. The sustainability of the hard-currency allowances largely depends on the availability of foreign exchange, which in turn depends on export growth as donors take a wait-and-see approach. END SUMMARY. -------------- The Birth of Vouchers -------------- ¶2. (U) Following the 2009 Budget and th*?2,tQKOjcurrency-denominated salaries by civil servants and the military, in view of pervasive dollarization of the economy and the collapse of the Zimbabwe dollar as a transacting currency. -------------- CBZ at the Forefront -------------- ¶3. (SBU) John Mangudya, Managing Director of CBZ Bank and President of the Bankers' Association of Zimbabwe (BAZ),told economic specialist on February 25 that CBZ had developed a voucher system for its own clients in liaison with the Reserve Bank and Innscor Group. The early CBZ vouchers were redeemable in the form of goods from Innscor shops only. Mangudya told us that CBZ had accessed the funds through normal lines of credit from its international partners. He said CBZ had issued 40,000 vouchers to soldiers when Finance Minister Biti announced the introduction of a general voucher system to cover all civil servant allowances for the month of February. John Mushayavanhu, Managing Director of FBC Bank Ltd and Vice President of the Bankers' Association of Zimbabwe, told uson March 2 that the Innscor vouchers had been issued only to the armed forces. (COMMENT: In surveying SPAR supermarkets last week we were struck by the large number of uniformed forces redeeming vouchers at the till. END COMMENT.) ¶4. (SBU) John Koumides, Director and former CEO of Innscor, told econoff on March 2 that CBZ, on a one-off basis, had backed US$5 million worth of US$100 vouchers redeemable only at Innscor shops. He said that, as of February 25, only US$70,000 worth of vouchers had been redeemed at supermarkets--far fewer than Innscor had anticipated. Qsupermarkets--far fewer than Innscor had anticipated. (COMMENT: We believe that when the government later announced that all vouchers were redeemable at banks, many of the HARARE 00000183 002 OF 004 Innscor vouchers flowed to the banks rather than to supermarkets, especially in light of the pressing need for cash to pay school fees and utility bills in foreign currency. END COMMENT.) -------------- Why Innscor, Why CBZ? -------------- ¶5. (U) Innscor banks with CBZ, in addition to Barclays and Standard Chartered Bank. CBZ is the bank of choice of most civil servants, who make up roughly half of Zimbabwe's formally employed population. Further tightening the association, Gideon Gono was CEO of CBZ Holdings Ltd prior to becoming Governor of the RBZ. Innscor operates 14 corporate SPAR supermarkets in Zimbabwe and has a franchise relationship with 73 further SPAR supermarkets, in addition to controlling 31 lower-end Savemor grocery stores in high-density areas. Innscor has roughly the same number of grocery outlets as its main competitors, TM Supermarkets and OK, but only about half their floor space. ¶6. (SBU) Koumides told us that Innscor had a track record of pursuing business more aggressively and &creatively8 than TM or OK, most recently by developing a voucher system with the RBZ and CBZ. He said TM and OK, on the other hand, were skittish about falling out with the authorities, particularly since the arrest of each of their chief executives at the inception of price controls in 2007. Innscor hoped to win market share from the competitors by entering into the voucher agreement with the RBZ and CBZ. -------------- The RBZ Not To Be Outdone -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Deputy Governor of the RBZ Nicholas Ncube told economic specialist on February 24 that the RBZ had developed its own version of US$100 vouchers payable to its staff as a monthly allowance and redeemable, again, at Innscor shops. (NOTE: We understand that RBZ employees have received some allowances but no salaries since December, 2008. END NOTE.) Ncube said RBZ staff could also redeem the vouchers for up to US$40 cash per month. (COMMENT: The numbers indicate that CBZ's US$5 million line of credit could have been intended to cover the payment of US$100 vouchers both to uniformed forces and RBZ staff. END COMMENT.) By the time Biti declared that the government would pay all civil servants a hard currency allowance in the form of vouchers, two voucher systems were already in operation. -------------- - Finance Minister Biti Blocks Unbacked Vouchers -------------- - ¶8. (SBU) Mangudya told us that RBZ Governor Gono had intended vouchers for civil servants to be redeemed only for goods at select shops, as the RBZ did not have enough foreign exchange to pay out. New Finance Minister, Tendai Biti, however, Qto pay out. New Finance Minister, Tendai Biti, however, changed the system to make February's vouchers redeemable for cash at banks. He also announced the termination of vouchers after February, 2009. From March onward, he directed that U.S. dollar denominated allowances, not salaries--civil servants continue to be paid salaries in local currency--be HARARE 00000183 003 OF 004 paid directly into civil servants' foreign currency accounts (FCAs). Mangudya told us banks must now open FCAs for everyone wishing to redeem the February vouchers. Mangudya believed that by terminating the voucher schemes Biti was seeking to curb the RBZ's ability to print vouchers not backed by foreign exchange. -------------- Where The Money Comes From -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Mangudya said the banks were using their daily float from export receipts to pay out cash for vouchers. The CBZ, for its part, acted as clearing house in reimbursing the banks, and was itself reimbursed by the GOZ. Mangudya said the Bankers Association of Zimbabwe had nominated CBZ as lead bank in the voucher scheme because CBZ had pioneered voucher use with Innscor. Mushayavanhu told us that banks were importing cash from their Nostro accounts offshore to redeem the vouchers. However, the banks had to balance out this new short-term foreign currency need with their regular clients, demands for foreign exchange from their FCAs. Mushayavanhu predicted cash shortages in the near term. In fact, not all banks have been able to pay out the full cash value of vouchers. The Standard newspaper reported in its March 1-7, 2009 issue that at least three banks in Harare could not meet the cash demand. ¶10. (SBU) In regard to the general voucher scheme for civil servants announced by Biti and valid only for the month of February, Mangudya said CBZ was getting foreign exchange to redeem the coupons from the government's tax revenues. He told us the amounts involved were very small and manageable. Tax revenue was sufficient for now to cover the ow-value vouchers, and hard currency had begun to circulate smoothly, according to Mangudya. Francis Macheka, Executive Director of Agribank, told us that civil servants were paid out the full face value of the vouchers while the banks earned a 2 percent commission from government. Our own informal survey, however, revealed that not all civil servants had received vouchers. No city council or water authority employees in the Chinoyi/Karoi area of Mashonaland West, for example, had received vouchers as of March 3, 2009. Going forward, Macheka said the banks would get their income from normal ledger fees and other transaction-related charges rather than from commission charged to the government. ¶11. (SBU) Margireta Makuwaza, Director of DOMESTIC and International Finance at the Ministry of Finance, told us on March 3 that allowances had been distributed in the form of vouchers via ministries to about 260,000 government employees in February, 2009. She said the government intended to start Qin February, 2009. She said the government intended to start paying U.S. dollar allowances to government pensioners, as well, beginning in March. The amounts had not yet been finalized. In the meantime, civil servant salaries will continue to be paid in local currency. She said the GOZ expected the Zimbabwe dollar to eventually stabilize, which would allow the government to end foreign exchange allowances. ¶12. (SBU) At least one press report maintained that vouchers had been distributed to ZANU-PF members who were not civil servants. Asked about possible abuse, Mrs. Makuwaza told us it was too early to determine whether any abuse had in fact occurred in the distribution and redemption of vouchers. HARARE 00000183 004 OF 004 -------------- COMMENT -------------- :QQ presses. He could have printed vouchers well above the available foreign exchange reserves, thereby pushing U.S. dollar prices up substantially. By closing down the voucher system, Finance Minister Biti once again curbed Gono's relevance in the new scheme of things. ¶14. (C) Biti's commitment to continuing to pay civil servants (and starting in March pensioners, too) a hard currency allowance adds pressure on the new government to raise foreign exchange. There are early indications of rising tax revenues, but, in the short-term at least, until donor support materializes, the government desperately needs to direct every effort toward increasing exports to keep the system sustainable. In the meantime, with nearly all everyday expenses hard-currency denominated, government employees are nearly as mired in poverty as ever as they seek to make ends meet on US$100/month. END COMMENT. MCGEE