ZIM NOTES 02-20-2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000142 AF/S FOR B. WALCH ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR TREASURY FOR D. PETERS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN COMMERCE FOR ROBERT TELCHIN SIPDIS E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ECON ZI SUBJECT: ZIM NOTES 02-20-2009 -------------- ¶1. SUMMARY -------------- Topics of the week: - On the Political/Social Front PM, MFA Brief Diplomats and Donors... - New Ministers and Deputies Take Office... - UN Visit... - USAID Employee's Hearing Delayed - Again ... - Political Prisoners Remain in Custody... - More WOZA Arrests... - Cholera Response Assessment... - British "Evacuation" Raises Eyebrows... - Prices Keep Falling... - Civil Servants Start Receiving Hard Currency Vouchers... - Budget, Monetary Policy up for Review... - Trading Resumes on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange... - Reserve Bank Suspends Steep Licensing Fee... - Harare's Landline Network in Shambles... -------------- On the Political/Social Front -------------- ¶2. On the Political/Social Front PM, MFA Brief Diplomats and Donors... Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai briefed donors on Zimbabwe's economic situation and presented emergency and short-term economic plans. He announced that civil servants would be paid in forex. Donors pointed out, and Tsvangirai acknowledged, that developmental assistance would depend on compliance with the principles of reengagement. See Harare 135. Foreign Minister Mumbengegwi briefed diplomats this week. His focus was on the lifting of sanctions as crucial to Zimbabwe's economic development. See Harare 136. ¶3. New Ministers and Deputies Take Office... On Thursday, President Mugabe swore in 20 deputy ministers (five more than contemplated by the Global Political Agreement (GPA)) and five ministers of state who were not agreed to in the GPA. With five ministers of state added last week to the cabinet when ministers were initially sworn in, there are now 41 cabinet ministers vice the 31 provided for in the GPA. The political agreement resulting in this will obviously place an additional burden on Zimbabwe's cash-strapped coffers. Notably, Roy Bennett, who remains in custody in Mutare, was not sworn in as Deputy Secretary of Agriculture. ¶4. UN Visit... Assistant Secretary General Catherine Bragg will lead a joint UN mission with representatives from UNICEF, WHO and WFP to Zimbabwe February 21 to 25. The mission's objectives include: gaining a better understanding of the humanitarian situation, response, and the operational challenges faced by humanitarian actors, while exploring methods of improving UN support. The mission will work with relevant government authorities to advocate for a less polarized humanitarian environment and unhindered access of humanitarian assistance. ¶5. USAID Employee's Hearing Delayed - Again... Frank Muchirahondo - charged with the attempted murder of the chief of Zimbabwe's Air Force - was to have had a court appearance before the Bindura magistrate Thursday for his attorney to request a trial date and receive the charging documents from the prosecutor. As was the case on February 12, yesterday's court date was postponed - both the Qon February 12, yesterday's court date was postponed - both the magistrate and the prosecutor were no-shows. The court date has been rescheduled to February 24. The Embassy continues to try to work a resolution to this case through back channels. HARARE 00000142 002 OF 003 ¶6. Political Prisoners Remain in Custody... A magistrate in Mutare dismissed a charge against Roy Bennett of illegally trying to leave the country, but upheld a charge of illegal possession of arms for purposes of sabotage and denied bail. His lawyers are appealing the denial of bail to the High Court while a group of several hundred MDC supporters maintains a 24-hour vigil outside the Mutare police station awaiting his release. Separately, 5 of the 18 original abductees in State custody are now in Avenues Clinic receiving medical care, after numerous court orders. The High Court granted bail to four of the seven men accused of bombing police stations, but the State appealed. Of the 32 original abductees, 18 are still in custody, 10 are missing, one escaped to South Africa, and three have been released. In addition, the three white men arrested on January 3 for allegedly training insurgents at an adventure camp outside Harare remain in custody after being denied bail in the High Court this week. See Harare 130. ¶7. More WOZA Arrests... On February 14, WOZA held its annual march in Bulawayo, handing out Valentine's Day cards and roses to police, bystanders, and journalists. Approximately 800 men and women joined the protests which were scattered around town. Frustrated police hit many innocent bystanders and protesters, but there were no serious injuries. 10 were arrested - 7 WOZA women and 3 observers from a community radio station. The 10 were held in the jail's filthy conditions without warrant until Tuesday when 6 relented and paid fines for blocking traffic. The other four were released on bail and charges against them were dropped on the 19th. The group reported overflowing toilets and maggots in the overcrowded cells. ¶8. Cholera Response Assessment... Between February 8 and 14, the WHO reported a slight increase in new cholera cases and a slight decrease in cholera deaths compared to the previous week, consistent with regular increases in the weekly numbers of new cholera cases recorded throughout January. As of February 17, cholera has caused more than 3,700 deaths out of more than 78,000 reported cases, according to the WHO. Preparations are underway for a United Nations Interagency Real Time Evaluation, which will assess the overall relevance, effectiveness and coherence of the humanitarian response and provide feedback to facilitate planning and implementation. ¶9. British "Evacuation" Raises Eyebrows... This week the British Embassy announced its "Zimbabwe Resettlement Plan" - many months in the works - to help its senior citizens leaving Zimbabwe access social services immediately upon return to the UK. Usually, returning Brits must wait several months to access assistance. The Herald called the plan an "evacuation" and painted it as a slap in the face to the new government. The Herald also reported that Tsvangrai called British ambassador Andrew Pocock to complain that QTsvangirai called British ambassador Andrew Pocock to complain that the British government's actions would dent international confidence in Zimbabwe. -------------- On the Economic and Business Front -------------- ¶10. Prices Keep Falling... Independent monitors found that prices of most basic commodities continued to fall in US dollar terms this week. A local private institution that monitors 25 imported and local products found that on average prices fell from US$70.63 to US$70.13. The EC Delegation, which monitors 18 items in the low income food basket, registered a 6% drop in prices in the same period. The Consumer Council of Zimbabwe estimates that a family of six requires a minimum monthly income of US$288. ¶11. Civil Servants Start Receiving Hard Currency Vouchers... Civil servants began receiving allowances worth US$100 per month in vouchers this week; their actual salaries will be deposited into HARARE 00000142 003 OF 003 their accounts in local currency. As of February 19, civil servants who had received vouchers were redeeming them for either goods at selected supermarkets or for cash at banks. The vouchers indicated which shops and banks civil servants could use. Our banking contacts indicated that civil servants have received explicit instructions to redeem the vouchers for cash at banks and to open foreign currency accounts. With effect from March 2009, foreign currency denominated salaries for civil servants will be deposited into these accounts. We will monitor and report on the sustainability of this arrangement. ¶12. Budget, Monetary Policy up for Review... Deputy PM Arthur Mutambara advised businessmen this week not to base their planning on the recent budget and monetary policy statements as they were under review and subject to fundamental changes. ¶13. Trading Resumes on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange... Trading in foreign currency got off to a slow start on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) on February 19, after nearly three months of suspension. A mere 3,000 shares in one company changed hands at US1 cent per share, as the market struggled to find the fair value for shares previously traded in local currency. Liquidity constraints arising from foreign currency shortages will likely put a damper on trading volume in the short term. ¶14. Reserve Bank Suspends Steep Licensing Fee... Faced with most shops inability to pay the exorbitant US$1,000/month licensing fee for trading in foreign currency, the RBZ suspended the requirement a week ago. ¶15. Rich Platinum Reserves, but Speculation with Claims... Zimbabwe's rich platinum resources contributed a third of the country's exports in 2008. But ground surrendered by international mining companies in exchange for empowerment credit in the past years has ended up in the hands of rogues and speculators rather than serious developers. See Harare 141. ¶16. Harare's Landline Network in Shambles... Embassy communications specialists have learned that South African and, most recently, New Zealand telcos have poached many of TelOne's (Zimbabwe's fixed-line parastatal) remaining few technicians. In addition, fuel was unavailable for service calls, and the few remaining company vehicles were no longer being serviced for lack of motor oil and due to the risk of parts going missing during off-site maintenance. -------------- Quote of the Week -------------- ¶17. "Don't ever fool yourselves. We are not going to be naove to believe that it's going to be smooth. This is a transition and there are transitional obstacles that you need to overcome. And overcome we will. Step by step we will make those incremental gains." -- Morgan Tsvangirai speaking at an MDC 10th anniversary celebration on February 18. ¶18. "If Morgan Tsvangirai has no power to protect his top leadership, the rest of the country is in big trouble because Qleadership, the rest of the country is in big trouble because nothing is going to change." -- Heather Bennett speaking of her husband Roy's continued detention on February 17 with SW Radio. MCGEE