OUTSIDERS, VIEWS OF THE INSIDE OF ZANU-PF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001012 SIPDIS AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC ZI SUBJECT: OUTSIDERS, VIEWS OF THE INSIDE OF ZANU-PF Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 B,D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ZANU-PF hardliners have adopted a 'wait and see' attitude regarding Western sanctions, believing that EU sanctions might be lifted soon, with lifting of U.S. sanctions taking another two to three years. Merely offering immunity from prosecution and one-time payments will not be sufficient to woo top security officials out of their positions. For many, without their current positions, they literally have nothing. One key, perhaps, to change hard line attitudes and begin the process of changing the status quo would be to show them a 'light at the end of the tunnel.' This would depend, of course, on them showing some positive progress. Personal sanctions don't hurt top officials as much as they claim, but it is a useful excuse for stonewalling cooperation with the opposition. These are views obtained in a conversation with controversial Zimbabwean businessman Billy Rautenbach and Robson R. "Taffy" Matonhodze, a former Zimbabwean military officer and ZAPU guerrilla. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On December 29, Ambassador and DATT met with controversial Zimbabwean businessman Billy Rautenbach and Robson R. "Taffy" Matonhodze, a former member of the Zimbabwean military and a former ZAPU guerrilla, to get their perspective on attitudes among the ZANU-PF military and civilian officials that they have contact with. Rautenbach, on the U.S. and EU sanctions list for his financial support of ZANU-PF, appears to be a self-serving businessman interested primarily in amassing wealth and holding on to his current assets. Matonhodze, who, as a colonel, was commander of Zimbabwe's SAS (the Zimbabwean equivalent to the U.S. Delta Force),is an alumnus of the U.S. Army Special Warfare Center at Ft. Bragg, NC, and the British SAS School. He is an employee of Zimbabwe Biofuels, one of Rautenbach's enterprises. ¶3. (C) Rautenbach began the conversation by saying that while sanctions have made it impossible for him to travel to Europe or the U.S., or access his bank accounts and other assets there, it has not really prevented him from making money. The problem, he said, is that without the access to foreign capital and investment, his assets are not worth as much as they could be. The same can be said of many other 
business people in Zimbabwe, he said. Sanctions have not kept them from making money; merely added a few complications to the process. ZANU-PF individuals on the sanctions list are not as affected as they publicly complain. Many of them, in fact, have no real desire to travel to the U.S. or Europe. It is, however, a handy tool to use in their campaign to stonewall opposition efforts to reform the political process and maintain the status quo. They know full well that the MDC has no power to lift sanctions, and probably little influence on the process, but will continue to use this as a 'bargaining' tool in order to stay in power. ¶4. (C) On the issue of dealing with the securocrats, both men said they believe the West has misinterpreted what will Qmen said they believe the West has misinterpreted what will motivate them to step aside. Immunity from prosecution and one-time payments will not entice them to retire, they said. What is not understood by the West is that except for a small number, most of these people have not amassed larges hoards of money. They have farms, most in terrible condition, and they operate them based on being able to demand inputs because of their position. When they get large amounts of money, it is almost immediately spent, on houses, cars, or girl friends. Rautenbach said he hates January, when school fees are due, because of the large number of senior officials who approach him for 'donations' to pay their children's school fees. (COMMENT: This is a view we have heard from others as well. If accurate, it will have a huge impact on how any security sector reform program is structured. END COMMENT.) If these people leave their present positions, they said, they will literally have nothing - no house, no cars, no staff, no income - nothing. If they accepted a HARARE 00001012 002 OF 002 one-time payment and left their job, within months, if not weeks, the money would be gone, and they would be broke. (COMMENT: One Zimbabwean citizen told the Ambassador of a ZANU-PF official who committed suicide when he was dismissed from his position, because the day after his dismissal, he didn't even have enough money for taxi fare, and had been evicted from his house. END COMMENT.) ¶5. (C) Rautenbach and Matonhodze also described an interesting attitude regarding sanctions that they claim is held by a large number of senior ZANU-PF officials - they believe that EU sanctions might be lifted soon, but that it could take two to three years for U.S. sanctions to be lifted. Therefore, in order to remain in power and retain their positions, they just have to 'wait it out.' (COMMENT: At this point, Ambassador pointed out that regarding U.S. sanctions, they have badly misread the depth of American anger at their actions in the land seizures and election violence, and if they maintain this stance it will likely guarantee no easing on our part. END COMMENT.) There have been discussions, Rautenbach said, of lobbying the U.S. Congress on sanctions, but they didn't have enough money. ¶6. (C) The two men also said that being a ZANU-PF supporter was no guarantee against negative ZANU-PF actions. Rautenbach, for instance, said that even though he is an acknowledged financial supporter, it did not keep local ZANU thugs from seizing his brother's farm. There have also been other instances where those Zimbabweans, white and black, who have donated to ZANU-PF coffers, were subsequently the target of negative actions. One of the problems with supporting ZANU, they acknowledged, is that once you start, it becomes difficult and dangerous to try to disengage. You could end up dead, was clearly their message. (COMMENT: This in no way argues for taking a lenient view of such people reference sanctions, but it does add some nuance to a complicated internal situation, and should be understood by outsiders who have to deal with this country. If you hop in the crab bucket, you have to withstand the treatment crabs get, but anyone who has ever been crab fishing knows that individual crabs can never get out of the bucket, because the others always pull them back. END COMMENT.) ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Clearly these two individuals have their own personal agendas, but they have some contact with senior ZANU-PF officials and provided we keep their agendas in mind, can be useful sources of information. In addition, since we can be sure that their ZANU-PF patrons will be told everything (or almost everything) we say to them in meetings, they can be helpful in getting messages to those in ZANU-PF who are reluctant to meet with us. END COMMENT. RAY