Best Laid Plans: Schleswig-Holstein's CDU and SPD in

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HAMBURG 001193 State for EUR/AGS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GM SUBJECT: Best Laid Plans: Schleswig-Holstein's CDU and SPD in Surprisingly Close Race REF: HAMBURG 23 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION ¶1. (SBU): SUMMARY: The July collapse of the Schleswig-Holstein Grand Coalition (reftel) brought on by the CDU may not bring about the desired CDU-FDP coalition result for which the CDU has hoped. Early state elections will take place on September 27, the same day as national elections, which may boost overall voter turnout. As a result of this acrimonious breakup and general bad blood in the Grand Coalition, SPD leader Ralf Stegner initially appeared to have lost significant personal support, as well as support for the party. His recent "charm offensive," however, seems to have somewhat reversed this trend. Two separate polls show the SPD running a very close second to the CDU. While the ultimate outcome is uncertain, a renewed Grand Coalition is very unlikely. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- -------------- Polling Results Suggest Neck-and-Neck Race: CDU/FDP Majority in Jeopardy -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Emboldened by polls that showed his party could form a coalition with the Free Democrats back in July, and following a series of confrontations with the SPD, CDU Minister-President Peter Harry Carstensen prompted the collapse of his state's Grand Coalition (reftel). Since then, however, this majority has narrowed. The most recent ZDF Politbarometer opinion poll projected the CDU winning 32 percent of the vote in S-H, the SPD 27 percent, the FDP 14 percent, the Greens 12 percent, The Left 7 percent, and the SSW (South-Schleswig Voter Association) 4 percent. With 44 percent preferring Carstensen as M-P, he is clearly ahead of SPD candidate Ralf Stegner (28 percent). This same poll, however, shows that 42 percent of the electorate has not yet decided how it will vote. Past state elections have shown that massive mobilization efforts in the last week prior to the elections can substantially alter the final result. ¶3. (SBU) Another current opinion poll, this one from from Infratest Dimap, reflected the following results: CDU 33 percent, SPD 25 percent, FDP 14 percent, Greens 13 percent, The Left 6 percent, and the SSW 5 percent. Although the CDU and FDP combined vote is actually two points lower than the other parties' combined vote, the CDU/FDP partnership could still claim the mandate due to the method of calculation for seats in the S-H parliament (reftel). Ironically, 43 percent of the respondents in this poll said they would prefer an SPD-led government. Carstensen, however, is still seen as the more credible and competent candidate (except for the area of social justice) whose leadership skills trump Stegner's. -------------- -------------- Stegner's Charm Offensive Somewhat Successful -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Stegner's greatest handicap is his negative image. Not only do his political rivals in the CDU view him as a complainer, egotist and know-it-all, but that sentiment is largely shared among the electorate as a whole. Following the collapse of the CDU/SPD coalition in July, Stegner launched a charm offensive that has him relentlessly campaigning around the clock in a "red bus" tour all over S-H. A narrowing personal popularity gap indicates that his efforts have had some success. ¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile, the CDU-SPD contest in S-H has become nastier on a personal level. The Handelsblatt and Badische Zeitung quoted Stegner referring to Carstensen as a "fat, round, nothing." Similarly, M-P Carstensen has called Stegner a "pain in the ass" (Kotzbrocken). The frontrunners faced each other in an NDR TV duel on September 23; although there was no clear winner, the debate was much more confrontational than the September 13 Merkel/Steinmeier encounter. -------------- -------------- CDU Will Most Likely Pick Coalition Partner(s) -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) If the predicted CDU/FDP coalition does not materialize, a third partner could be enlisted, and either a "Jamaica" coalition (CDU, FDP, Greens) or CDU/FDP/SSW coalition would result. Since the S-H FDP, as opposed to the federal FDP, favors a continued phase-out of nuclear energy, it would make it much easier for the Greens to join a coalition with the CDU and FDP on a state level. Another factor in favor of a CDU/FDP/Greens coalition is Carstensen's claim of a "very good" relationship with Chairman of the S-H Greens Robert Habeck. ¶7. (SBU) Carstensen definitively ruled out a grand coalition with HAMBURG 00001193 002 OF 002 an SPD led by Stegner. The S-H FDP similarly rejects an SPD, Greens, FDP coalition ("Traffic Coalition") under Stegner's polarizing leadership. A leftist coalition of the SPD, Greens and SSW does not currently have a majority, and The Left itself has ruled out any participation in government. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Although Stegner's charm offensive seems to have had some success, a solid majority still favors Carstensen. Personalities, particularly Stegner's, play the greatest role in the campaign and coalition calculations in S-H. With the poll numbers running so close, it's too early to predict with certainty the ultimate outcome. While a CDU/FDP governing coalition appears most likely, strong voter turnout could swing the outcome in another direction. If -- and only if -- all elements align in favor of the SPD (if the Left chooses to participate in the government, if the Greens repudiate the CDU/Greens coalition, if the SSW chooses to align with the SPD and agrees to enter or tolerate a SPD/Greens/Left coalition),then the SPD could theoretically gain enough votes to form a coalition that leaves the CDU out in the cold. END COMMENT. ¶9. (SBU) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. JOHNSON