NOVA SCOTIA ELECTION RESULTS: NDP MAKE HISTORY IN OUSTING

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000039 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAN AND INR/B E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR CA SUBJECT: NOVA SCOTIA ELECTION RESULTS: NDP MAKE HISTORY IN OUSTING NOVA SCOTIA TORIES REF: Halifax 0028 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A new, historic era is set to begin in Nova Scotia politics now that the New Democratic Party has scored a decisive win in the June 9 provincial election--the first time the NDP has won a provincial election east of Ontario. Pending any reversals on recounts, the NDP will have 31 seats in the 52-seat legislature, the Liberals 11, and the once-governing Tories relegated to third place with 10 seats. Premier-elect Darrell Dexter is anxious to start implementing a domestically-focused agenda, one which post anticipates will not affect U.S. interests in the province. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) The New Democratic Party triumphantly redrew Nova Scotia's political map on June 9 with its history-making victory in the provincial election. Party leader Darrell Dexter guided his troops to a decisive finish, making this the first time that the NDP has formed a provincial government east of Ontario (and the province's first majority government since the 1999 election). The outcome became clear just half an hour after the polls closed, with Tory Premier Rodney MacDonald conceding defeat shortly after. MacDonald's Tories ended up in third place behind the Liberals who will now form the official opposition with rookie leader Stephen McNeil at the helm. The tally shows the NDP with 31 seats, the Liberals 11 and the Tories 10, although these results are not yet final pending any possible recounts. The NDP also scored big in the popular vote, taking 45 percent of the votes cast, compared to the Liberals' 27 percent and the Tories' 24 percent. The Green Party and other independent candidates took the remainder of the vote. ¶3. (U) When the MacDonald government fell on May 4 the Tories held 21 seats, the NDP 20, and the Liberals nine. One seat was held by an independent and another was vacant. However, as one of post's Tory contacts confided, it became clear early on in the election campaign that Nova Scotians were looking for a change. The Tories had been in power since the July 1999 provincial election when former Premier John Hamm scored an upset victory over the then incumbent Liberals. Hamm won re-election in 2003 and when he retired two years later MacDonald took over the Premier's job and continued the Tory reign with a very narrow win in the 2006 election. Since then MacDonald has been clinging to power and, as the Tories learned on June 9, the electorate was looking for a new government with solid support that did not need forced alliances with the other parties to stay afloat. ¶4. (U) As NDP leader Darrell Dexter emerges from a campaign dominated by local issues, he must now figure out how to deliver on his many campaign promises (focused on generalities such as better stewardship of the economy and greater prosperity for Nova Scotians). His first order of business will be to bring the legislature into session with the ultimate goal of bringing in a balanced budget next year. As for ex-Premier Rodney MacDonald, observers expect him to resign as leader to clear the way for a new, fresh face. The Liberals' McNeil, however, can be assured of a united and spirited caucus who will be grateful for their leader's success in moving the party out of its previous third-place slot. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: As one of post's political contacts observed, the NDP's climb from its third-place position in Nova Scotia politics, to official opposition status, and culminating in victory on June 9, was due to a patient and persistent softening of the party's sharp socialist edges. This, combined with Dexter's strategy to move the party to a more centralist position on the political spectrum, was an easy sell to the electorate who were clearly looking for a change. Beyond the borders of Nova Scotia, election-watchers are waiting to see what impact the historic NDP win will have on national politics here in Atlantic Canada. Of the region's 32 seats in the federal House of Commons, only four are held by the NDP. (The Liberals have 17, the Conservatives 10 and there is one vacancy.) As with the other three Atlantic Provinces, federal and provincial politics are often intertwined so there could be dividends for federal NDP candidates whenever the next federal election campaign unfolds. While that effect might take some time to play out, for now it's Premier-elect Dexter's moment in the spotlight as he gets ready to take over the reins of power in Nova Scotia. Post has had an ongoing, easy, and cordial relationship with Dexter, his party officials and also with those re-elected NDP members who can be expected to fill key cabinet positions. Given the centralist and domestic focus of the new government, post does not anticipate any changes in U.S. interests in the province. END COMMENT ¶6. (U) Post will transmit a bio report on Premier-elect Darrell Dexter via septel. FOSTER