PROTESTERS MARCH ON CITY; DEMAND DIALOGUE WITH GOVERNMENT

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000937

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON GT
SUBJECT: PROTESTERS MARCH ON CITY; DEMAND DIALOGUE WITH GOVERNMENT

REF: A) 09 GUATEMALA 442; B) 08 GUATEMALA 925

SUMMARY




1. (U) Approximately 20,000 rural and indigenous protesters marched
on Guatemala City on Monday, October 12. The protesters blocked
major thoroughfares to demand the resolution of issues, including
agrarian reform, mining restrictions, hydroelectric power, and
environmental protections, amongst others, which they first
presented to the government three months ago. Fourteen protest
leaders met with representatives of the Presidential Commission for
Permanent Dialogue to request a meeting with President Alvaro
Colom. Following hours of negotiation, President Colom agreed to
meet with the protest representatives on Thursday, October 15.
Following the protests, authorities detained and expelled the
leftist leader Armando "El Monje" LusquiC1os to Spain. LusquiC1os
claimed (falsely) to be the principal organizer of the protest.
END SUMMARY.



PROTESTERS BLOCK ACCESS TO CITY - RAISE OLD DEMANDS




2. (U) According to press reports, approximately 20,000 indigenous
and rural protesters marched on Guatemala City on Monday, October
12, blocking access to the city and demanding a meeting with
President Colom. Protesters gathered at thirteen different
locations early Monday morning, successfully closing major
thoroughfares, and later made their way to the Presidential Palace
where organizers met with Catalina Soberanis, head of the
Presidential Commission for Permanent Dialogue, to request a
meeting with the President. Following threats of a hunger strike
and hours of negotiation, the Commission agreed to grant a meeting
with President Colom on Thursday, October 15 to end the protest.
Though protest participants remained peaceful, a pedestrian shot
and killed one protester and injured two others when he tried to
pass through the blockade.




3. (U) Several leftist groups, including the National Coordinator
for the Indigenous and Peasant Peoples (CONIC) and the Committee
for Peasant Unity (CUC) organized the protests and led the
negotiations with the Administration (Ref B). The protesters
demanded that the government:

B7 Enact comprehensive agrarian reform

B7 Cancel various national and international mining licenses

B7 Suspend construction on the Cementos Progreso plant in
San Juan SacatapC)quez (Ref A)

B7 Cancel several ongoing hydroelectric power projects
throughout the country and dismantle those that are already in
place

B7 Release four peasants detained in San Juan SacatepC)quez,
Livingston, and Izabal

B7 Enact and enforce stricter protections of environmental
and water resources

B7 Order the International Commission Against Impunity in
Guatemala (CICIG) to investigate private security guards that have
allegedly committed violent crimes against the rural poor and
indigenous citizens



PRESSING THE GOVERNMENT TO BARGAIN




4. (SBU) Indigenous and rural community leaders have held several
dialogue sessions with the government regarding similar issues
since July 2009. CONIC spokesperson, CC)sar Bol, told POLOFF that
the discussions have been fruitless thus far and that the street
protests were a means of putting pressure on the government to
bargain. Bol also decried the eviction of landless peasants
illegally squatting on private landholdings and stated that if

evictions continued (either illegally or sanctioned by the courts)
the protests would resume.



"EL MONJE" ARRESTED AND EXPELLED




5. (U) Following the protests, the Government of Guatemala (GoG)
detained Armando LusquiC1os (alias El Monje) and, with the consent
of the Spanish government, expelled him on Tuesday, October 13.
Protesters assaulted LusquiC1os during the march to the Presidential
Palace. LusquiC1os claimed to lead the National Renovation
Movement, a radical left organization that was willing to use
violence to advance its objective of "completing Guatemala's
internal conflict." (Note: The Embassy has no evidence that this
organization exists or has carried any acts of terrorism.
LusquiC1os claimed to have destroyed an electrical substation
resulting in a nationwide blackout on October 12. Officials at the
Energy Commission attribute the blackout to a lightning strike. End
Note.) According to the GoG, upon his arrest, El Monje threatened
to bomb a bridge between Guatemala and Belize and mobilize his
300,000 armed followers if the GoG did not acquiesce to the protest
demands. The Minister of Governance RaC:l VelC!squez asserted his
belief that LusquiC1os suffered from mental health problems.




6. (SBU) Comment: The protest is unlikely to threaten Colom's
political popularity despite the fact that it is unlikely his
government will meet many of their demands. Early campaigning by
First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom to solidify the rural and
far-left vote gives the Colom Administration a political incentive
to at least partially placate the protesters. It is yet unclear
whether protest organizers are taking advantage of the political
posture of the First Lady or whether the demands reflect an actual
deterioration in rural conditions, in fact, both could be true.
Nonetheless, the reasonably well attended protest indicates the
relative frustration of the rural and indigenous population with
the inability of the Colom government to successfully address their
needs. Still, both CONIC and CUC are firmly aligned with the First
Lady and, in particular, her advisor and Secretary of Peace Orlando
Blanco. As such protest organizers are unlikely to persist in any
way that seriously undermines a potential presidential bid by the
First Lady. Looking ahead, if protesters are unsatisfied with the
October 15 meeting with President Colom, they could return to the
streets on October 20, 2009, the Day of the Revolution, to press
their agenda alongside the annual celebration. End Comment.
ROBINSON